Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials

Lobell, David B.; Bänziger, Marianne; Magorokosho, Cosmos; Vivek, B.

doi:10.1038/nclimate1043

Cited by 968 publications

(710 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…23 We find no evidence that the effect of temperature varies according to whether shocks are positive or negative relative to the port-specific mean over the 1730-1866 period (Table A1). This is consistent with present-day studies of African agriculture, which find that yields are declining in temperature, rather than being adversely affected by both warm and cold shocks (Exenberger and Pondorfer, 2011;Lobell et al, 2011).…”

supporting

confidence: 79%

Climate and the slave trade

Fenske

Kala

2015

Journal of Development Economics

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ABSTRACT. African societies exported more slaves in colder years. Lower temperatures reduced mortality and raised agricultural yields, lowering slave supply costs. Our results help explain African participation in the slave trade, which predicts adverse outcomes today. We use an annual panel of African temperatures and port-level slave exports to show that exports declined when local temperatures were warmer than normal. This result is strongest where African ecosystems are least resilient to climate change. Cold weather shocks at the peak of the slave trade predict lower economic activity today. We support our interpretation using the histories of Whydah, Benguela, and Mozambique.

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confidence: 79%

Climate and the slave trade

Fenske

Kala

2015

Journal of Development Economics

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“…Campos et al (2004) reported 45-60% yield losses when drought occurred at silk emergence. Incidences of drought are expected to increase in the future due to climate change (Williams and Funk 2011), with further projected drought related production losses of 40% with each 1°C increase in temperature (Lobell et al 2011). Low soil nitrogen is also an important abiotic factor affecting maize production in some tropical regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic analysis of tropical quality protein maize (Zea mays L.) germplasm

et al. 2017

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Maize (Zea mays L.) is an important source of carbohydrates and protein in the diet in sub-Saharan Africa. The objectives of this study were to (i) estimate general (GCA) and specific combining abilities (SCA) of 13 new quality protein maize (QPM) lines in a diallel under stress and non-stress conditions, (ii) compare observed and predicted performance of QPM hybrids, (iii) characterize genetic diversity among the 13 QPM lines using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers and assess the relationship between genetic distance and hybrid performance, and (iv) assess diversity and population structure in 116 new QPM inbred lines as compared to eight older tropical QPM lines and 15 non-QPM lines. The GCA and SCA effects were significant for most traits under optimal conditions, indicating that both additive and non-additive genetic effects were important for inheritance of the traits. Additive genetic effects appeared to govern inheritance of most traits under optimal conditions and across environments. Non-additive genetic effects were more important for inheritance of grain yield but additive effects controlled most agronomic traits under drought stress conditions. Inbred lines CKL08056, CKL07292, and CKL07001 had desirable GCA effects for grain yield across drought stress and non-stress conditions. Prediction efficiency for grain yield was highest under optimal conditions. The classification of 139 inbred lines with 95 SNPs generated six clusters, four of which contained 10 or fewer lines, and 16 lines of mixed co-ancestry. There was good agreement between Neighbor Joining dendrogram and Structure classification. The QPM lines used in the diallel were nearly uniformly spread throughout the dendrogram. There was no relationship between genetic distance and grain yield in either the optimal or stressed environments in this study. The genetic diversity in mid-altitude maize germplasm is ample, and the addition of the QPM germplasm did not increase it measurably.

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“…For example, increased nighttime temperatures have negative effects on rice yields, by up to 10 per cent for each 1°C increase in minimum temperature in the dry season (Welch et al, 2010). Increases in maximum temperatures can lead to severe yield reductions and reproductive failure in crops such as maize, for which each degree day spent above 30 °C can reduce yield by 1.7 per cent under drought conditions (Lobell et al, 2011). Temperature changes may have direct effects on livestock too: most species have comfort zones between 10 and 30 °C, and at temperatures above this, animals reduce their feed intake 3-5 per cent for each 1°C increase (NRC, 1981).…”

Section: Impacts Of Changes In Climate and Climate Variability On MIXmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change adaptation in mixed crop–livestock systems in developing countries

Thornton

Herrero

2014

Global Food Security

142

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Mixed crop-livestock systems produce most of the world's milk and ruminant meat, and are particularly important for the livelihoods and food security of poor people in developing countries. These systems will bear the brunt of helping to satisfy the burgeoning demand for food from increasing populations, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where rural poverty and hunger are already concentrated. The potential impacts of changes in climate and climate variability on these mixed systems are not that well understood, particularly as regards how the food security of vulnerable households may be affected.There are many ways in which the mixed systems may be able to adapt to climate change in the future, including via increased efficiencies of production that sometimes provide important mitigation co-benefits as well. But effective adaptation will require an enabling policy, technical, infrastructural and informational environment, and the development challenge is daunting.

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Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials

Cited by 968 publications

References 19 publications

Climate and the slave trade

Climate and the slave trade

Genetic analysis of tropical quality protein maize (Zea mays L.) germplasm

Climate change adaptation in mixed crop–livestock systems in developing countries

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