Nonlinear Response of Streamflow to Climate Change in High-Latitude Regions: A Case Study in Headwaters of Nenjiang River Basin in China’s Far Northeast

Wu, Yanfeng; Zhang, Guangxin; Shen, Hong; Xu, Y. Jun

doi:10.3390/w10030294

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…EEMD method was utilized to decompose the scPDSI anomaly from 1956 to 2015 in the YZR basin, and; furthermore, to identify the periodic cycles by using the significance test. As shown in Figure 4, four IMFs and one trend component were decomposed, which contained the periodic changes and nonlinear feedback in the climate system [88]. According to Section 2.3.5, the significance test results of different IMF components are plotted in Figure 5, where the energy density values and inherent periodic cycles are shown with the logarithmic form at the longitudinal axis and the horizontal axis, respectively.…”

Section: Periodic Cycle Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought and Associated Multi-Scale Response to Climate Change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Liu

Shan

et al. 2019

Remote Sensing

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Drought is one of the most widespread and threatening natural disasters in the world, which has terrible impacts on agricultural irrigation and production, ecological environment, and socioeconomic development. As a critical ecologically fragile area located in southwest China, the Yarlung Zangbo River (YZR) basin is sensitive and vulnerable to climate change and human activities. Hence, this study focused on the YZR basin and attempted to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of drought and associated multi-scale response to climate change based on the scPDSI (self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index) and CRU (climate research unit) data. Results showed that: (1) The YZR basin has experienced an overall wetting process from 1956 to 2015, while a distinct transition period in the mid 1990s (from wet to dry) was detected by multiple statistical methods. (2) Considering the spatial variation of the scPDSI, areas showing the significantly wetting process with increasing scPDSI values were mostly located in the arid upstream and midstream regions, which accounted for over 48% area of the YZR basin, while areas exhibiting the drying tendency with decreasing scPDSI values were mainly concentrated in the humid southern part of the YZR basin, dominating the transition period from wet to dry, to which more attention should be paid. (3) By using the EEMD (ensemble empirical mode decomposition) method, the scPDSI over the YZR basin showed quasi-3-year and quasi-9-year cycles at the inter-annual scale, while quasi-15-year and quasi-56-year cycles were detected at the inter-decadal scale. The reconstructed inter-annual scale showed a better capability to represent the abrupt change characteristic of drought, which was also more influential to the original time series with a variance contribution of 55.3%, while the inter-decadal scale could be used to portray the long-term drought variation process with a relative lower variance contribution of 29.1%. (4) The multi-scale response of drought to climate change indicated that changes of precipitation (PRE) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) were the major driving factors in the drought variation at different time scales. Compared with potential evapotranspiration (PET), DTR was a much more important climate factor associated with drought variations by altering the energy balance, which is more obvious over the YZR basin distributed with extensive snow cover and glaciers. These findings could provide important implications for ecological environment protection and sustainable socioeconomic development in the YZR basin and other high mountain regions.

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Section: Periodic Cycle Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought and Associated Multi-Scale Response to Climate Change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Liu

Shan

et al. 2019

Remote Sensing

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“…The effective irrigated area of farmland was 22,273 km 2 , of which the grain area was 20,436 From 1956 to 2010, the annual average temperature in the NRB was about 2.1 • C and the annual average precipitation was 455 mm. About 70%-80% of the annual precipitation occurred during the summer, causing floods in the season [30,31]. The NRB is an important commodity grain base in China because of its rich cultivated land resources, good matching of water and soil, and suitable photothermal conditions.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Human Activities and Climate Variability Affecting Inland Water Surface Area in a High Latitude River Basin

Chen

Zhang

et al. 2020

Water

Self Cite

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Spatiotemporal changes in the surface area of inland water bodies have important implications in regional water resources, flood control, and drought hazard prediction. Although inland water bodies have been investigated intensively, few studies have looked at the effect of human activities and climate variability on surface area of inland waters at a larger scale over time and space. In this study, we used MODIS (MOD13Q1) images to determine water surface area extent at 250 m spatial resolution. We then applied this algorithm with MOD13Q1 images taken at 16-day intervals from 2000 to 2018 to a large river basin in China’s northeast high latitude region with dense stream network and abundant wetlands to investigate spatiotemporal distribution and dynamics of inland water bodies. The study identified 209 ponds, lakes, and reservoirs with an average total surface area of 2080 km2 in the past 19 years. The total water surface area fluctuated largely from 942 km2 to 5169 km2, corresponding to rainfall intensity and flood. We found that the total water surface area in this high latitude river basin showed an increasing trend during the study period, while the annual precipitation amount in the river basin also had an increasing trend concurrently. Precipitation and irrigation significantly contributed to the monthly change of water surface area, which reached the highest during June and August. The increase of water surface area was significant in the lower basin floodplain region, where agricultural irrigation using groundwater for rice production has progressed. Four nationally important wetland preserves (Zhalong, Xianghai, Momoge, and Chagan Lake) in the river basin made up nearly 50% of the basin’s total water surface area, of which Zhalong, Xianghai, and Momoge are designated by The Ramsar Convention as wetland sites of international importance. Seasonally, these water bodies reached their maximal surface area in August, when both the monsoon weather and agricultural discharge prevailed. This study demonstrates that water surface area in a high latitude river basin is affected by both human activities and climate variation, implying that high latitude regions will likely experience more changes in surface water distribution as global climate change continues and agriculture becomes intensified.

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“…Several research works were carried out to understand the variability of streamflows due to climate change [10][11][12][13][14][15] with mixed results in the streamflow variability, depending on the region and season. For instance, a decrease in annual streamflow was observed [5,16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Future Streamflow for Adaptive Water Allocation under Climate Change for the Tanjung Karang Rice Irrigation Scheme Malaysia

et al. 2020

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Spatial and temporal climatic variability influence on the productivity of agricultural watershed and irrigation systems. In a large irrigation system, the quantification and regulation of the flow at different locations of the channel is quite difficult manually, leading to a poor delivery of supply and demand. Water shortage is a crucial issue due to mismatch between available water and demand at intake point of Tanjung-Karang Irrigation Scheme. This study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on basin outflow for 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 to the baseline period (1976–2005) and used it as input hydrograph to simulate river discharge. A Hydrologic Engineering Corps Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model driven by projections from ten global climate models (GCMs) with three scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) used to simulate the outflow and the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model applied for hydraulic modeling. The projected seasonal streamflow showed a decreasing trend for future periods. The average available irrigation supply for historical period is 15.97 m3/s, which would decrease by 12%, 18%, and 21% under RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Projected irrigation supply showed oversupply and undersupply to the required supply during the growing season. Simulated discharge could therefore be incorporated into cropping practices to boost the sustainable distribution of water under the new realities of climate change in the future.

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Nonlinear Response of Streamflow to Climate Change in High-Latitude Regions: A Case Study in Headwaters of Nenjiang River Basin in China’s Far Northeast

Cited by 13 publications

References 45 publications

Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought and Associated Multi-Scale Response to Climate Change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought and Associated Multi-Scale Response to Climate Change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Human Activities and Climate Variability Affecting Inland Water Surface Area in a High Latitude River Basin

Modeling Future Streamflow for Adaptive Water Allocation under Climate Change for the Tanjung Karang Rice Irrigation Scheme Malaysia

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