Nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in China

Gao, Meng; Mo, Dingyuan; Wu, Xiaoqing

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.07.014

Cited by 72 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Dynamical downscaling (the first step in our methodology) joint with non-stationary multivariate statistics (second step) provides an affordable solution, without requiring prohibitive computational cost. Once the statistical model is fitted with process-based model outputs and after establishing relationships between the loads and related climate indices [21,97,98], uncertainty can be bounded by comparing climate indices from several publicly available GCMs (fourth step).…”

Section: Applicability Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea

Lin-Ye

Garcı́a-León

Gràcia

et al. 2018

Water

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The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents less dependence between storm total energy and storm-duration and among wave-storm components.

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Section: Applicability Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea

Lin-Ye

Garcı́a-León

Gràcia

et al. 2018

Water

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“…The nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used to characterize the trends of extreme precipitation intensity in this study. MK method was widely used to analyze the monotonically increasing or decreasing trends (Gao, Mo, & Wu, 2016;Gu et al, 2017a;Villarini et al, 2012;Xiao et al, 2017). However, that results of the MK test are affected by the serial correlation of time series (Xiao et al, 2017;Yang et al, 2017;Yue et al, 2002).…”

Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Change in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Precipitation and its Possible Teleconnection With Large‐Scale Climate Index Over the China From 1960 to 2015

Deng

Jiang

et al. 2018

JGR Atmospheres

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Understanding the change in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation plays an important role in flood risk mitigation and water resource management in China. In this study, we analyzed the abrupt changes and long‐term trends in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency over China from 1960 to 2015 based on daily precipitation from stations. The possible teleconnection with large‐scale climate index was also been investigated. The major results are as follows: (1) 14.72% and 23.51% of all the stations over China have a change point in intensity and frequency, respectively. Moreover, most of change points occurred after 1975. (2) Extreme precipitation intensity and frequency show similar significant change trends, with a decreasing trend along the strip extending the northeast to southwest direction and an increasing trend in the two sides of the strip; 56.44% and 66.23% of all the stations shows the increasing trends in intensity and frequency. (3) Large‐scale climate indices have more influences on frequency rather than intensity. Especially, Dipole Mode Index with 1 year ahead has significantly positive correlation with extreme precipitation frequency in most areas of China, except for South China.

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“…Defining Q as the annual minimum daily flow, the stationarity of the time series data Q can then be tested by the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test method [47]. The time series Q t is assumed to be the sum of a deterministic trend β t , random walk γ t , and stationary error ε t at time t in the following linear regression model [48].…”

Section: Nonstationary and Trend Test Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Supply-Water Environmental Capacity Nexus in a Saltwater Intrusion Area under Nonstationary Conditions

Liu

Zeng

Qin

et al. 2019

Water

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Due to water supply increase and water quality deterioration, water resources are a critical problem in saltwater intrusion areas. In order to balance the relationship between water supply and water environment requirements, the nexus of water supply-water environment capacity should be well understood. Based on the Saint–Venant system of equations and the convection diffusion equation, the water supply-water environment capacity nexus physical equation is determined. Equivalent reliability is employed to estimate the boundary design water flow, which will then lead to a dynamic nexus. The framework for determining the nexus was then applied to a case study for the Pearl River Delta in China. The results indicate that the water supply-water environment capacity nexus is a declining linear relationship, which is different from the non-salt intrusion and tide-impacted areas. Water supply mainly relies on freshwater flow from upstream, while water environmental capacity is affected by both the design freshwater flow and the water levels at the downstream boundary. Our methods provide a useful framework for the quantification of the physical nexus according to the water quantity and water quality mechanisms, which are useful for freshwater allocation and management in a saltwater intrusion area or the tail area of cascade reservoirs.

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Nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in China

Cited by 72 publications

References 54 publications

Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea

Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea

Change in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Precipitation and its Possible Teleconnection With Large‐Scale Climate Index Over the China From 1960 to 2015

Water Supply-Water Environmental Capacity Nexus in a Saltwater Intrusion Area under Nonstationary Conditions

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