Nonstationary Modeling of Meteorological Droughts: Application to a Region in India

Das, Subhadarsini; Das, Jew; Umamahesh, N. V.

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0002039

Cited by 25 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 103 publications

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“…The non-stationary version of different indices is obtained by incorporating additional covariates and employing regression analysis to estimate the corresponding positional parameters. The mainstream calculation method uses time or circulation index as covariates [44,45]. There are also alternative options for covariates, with human activity being one possible choice [46].…”

Section: Non-stationary Input Variables Of the Drought Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigate the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Drought and Its Interaction with Atmospheric Circulation in the Yellow River Middle Basin

Dai,

Dong,

Wei

et al. 2024

Water

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Global warming contributes to an increased frequency and severity of droughts. Drought emerges as a highly prevalent natural calamity, distinguished by its formidable disruptive impact and the capacity to trigger considerable economic setbacks. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and clarifying the driving role of atmospheric circulation on droughts is vital for agricultural, hydrological, ecological, and socio-economic systems. Leveraging meteorological data from 36 stations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2020, we employed the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to calculate drought occurrence. Concurrently, we explored the influence of atmospheric circulation on the SPEI. The findings of our study underscore a concerning trend of worsening drought conditions within the study area. We discovered a significant correlation between the duration and severity of drought (R = 0.83, p < 0.001); longer durations often corresponded to higher levels of severity. Turning our attention to atmospheric dynamics, the Nino Eastern Pacific index (NE) emerged as a critical driver of SPEI dynamics (the contribution of NE to SPEI was 0.22), significantly impacting drought patterns. In conclusion, the study significantly contributes to our comprehension of the evolving drought patterns under the influence of global warming. The findings can provide valuable information for water resource management and drought disaster control.

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Section: Non-stationary Input Variables Of the Drought Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigate the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Drought and Its Interaction with Atmospheric Circulation in the Yellow River Middle Basin

Dai,

Dong,

Wei

et al. 2024

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Traditionally droughts and heatwaves have been studied separately to assess the risk associated with them (Das et al, 2022a; Das, Das, & Umamahesh, 2021; Perkins‐Kirkpatrick & Lewis, 2020; Shao et al, 2018). Studies on droughts and hot events around the world have shown, that over time the vulnerabilities of both events are growing in most regions (Campbell et al, 2018; McMichael & Lindgren, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi‐index characterization of compound dry hot events in India

Prabhakar,

Mitra,

Varghese

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Compound dry hot events (CDHEs), where hot events and droughts coexist, have received a lot of attention lately due to their catastrophic effects on the economy, environment and human health. In this study, we use two CDHE indices, the Standardized Compound Event Indicator (SCEI) and the Standardized Dry and Hot Index (SDHI), to assess changes in CDHE characteristics (severity, frequency, spatial extent) over the historical past and future CMIP6 simulations across the Indian subcontinent. To understand the role of the drought index selected on CDHE characterization two drought indices namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are employed in the calculation of the CDHE indices. Further, the role of climatic oscillations such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Equatorial Indian Ocean Monsoon Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole in modulating CDHE characteristics have also been explored. Results show that SPI and SPEI based CDHE indices exhibit contrasting trends in northern India, while similar trends are observed in southern India in the historical past. Also, more frequent, extended, and severe CDHEs are reported by CDHE indices calculated using SPEI than by SPI. Temperature is found to be the dominant factor contributing to increases in CDHEs in the recent past and ENSO phases significantly modulate the severity and frequency of CDHE events in India. CMIP6 simulations generally report an increase in CDHE events for a 3°C global warming scenario. Overall, our findings show that the choice of the drought index has a greater impact on CDHE characterization than the choice of the CDHE index itself. Results from this study provide useful information towards understanding the risk of CDHEs in India under global warming and urge for the development and implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures.

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“…The studies, as mentioned above, except a few, employed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as a meteorological drought indicator to characterize the drought under the future climate change scenarios. According to the definition, SPI accounts only precipitation to describe the drought (Mckee et al ., 1993; Das et al ., 2021). However, in the present climate change scenario, it is expected that with constant relative humidity, the moisture content in the atmosphere roughly increases by 6–7% K −1 rise in the lower tropospheric temperature (Willett et al ., 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identification of future meteorological drought hotspots over Indian region: A study based on NEX‐GDDP data

Das

Umamahesh

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The present study aims to answer the following two research questions using the future outputs from 19 GCMs of the novel NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. (a) What will be the possible variability of future meteorological drought properties during the 21st century? (b) What will be the possible influence of temperature in modulating the drought properties? In order to answer the above questions, five different drought properties namely frequency, severity, duration, peak, and areal spread are analysed for future (2022–2099) using two meteorological drought indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for short (3‐month scale) and long (12‐month scale) term drought conditions. The essential outcomes from the study indicate a warming and wetting climate over Maharashtra during the 21st century. With an increase in monthly precipitation, severity and duration of future meteorological droughts are likely to decrease in long‐term drought condition. Conversely, in the short‐term condition, the properties are expected to increase. The drought properties like peak and areal spread are expected to increase for both short and long‐term drought conditions in most of the regions. Temperature plays a vital role in modulating the meteorological droughts, and the present study notices the same in most of the cases in all the drought properties, especially in drought severity, duration, and peak. All the division are identified as hotspot regions during the mid and later part of the 21st century for short‐term drought condition. The number of hotspot regions decreases in long‐term drought condition as compared to short‐term drought condition.

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Nonstationary Modeling of Meteorological Droughts: Application to a Region in India

Cited by 25 publications

References 103 publications

Investigate the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Drought and Its Interaction with Atmospheric Circulation in the Yellow River Middle Basin

Investigate the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Drought and Its Interaction with Atmospheric Circulation in the Yellow River Middle Basin

Multi‐index characterization of compound dry hot events in India

Identification of future meteorological drought hotspots over Indian region: A study based on NEX‐GDDP data

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