Normalisation of Paris agreement NDCs to enhance transparency and ambition

Abstract

The Paris Agreement takes a bottom-up approach to tackling climate change with parties submitting pledges in the form of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Studies show that the sum of these national pledges falls short of meeting the agreement's 2°C target. To explore this discrepancy, we analyse individual pledges and classify them into four categories. By doing so, a lack of consistency and transparency is highlighted, which we correct for by performing a normalisation that makes pledges directly comparable. This involves calculating changes in emissions by 2030, using data for the most recent base year of 2015. We find that pledges framed in terms of absolute emission reductions against historical base years generally produce the greatest ambition, with average emission reductions of 16% by 2030. Pledges defined as GDP intensity targets perform the worst with average emission increases of 61% by 2030. We propose that a normalisation procedure of the type as we develop becomes part of the NDC process. It will allow to not only increase the transparency of pledges for policymakers and wider society, but also promote more effective NDCs upon revision as is foreseen to happen every 5 years under the 'ratcheting mechanism' of the agreement.

Embodied carbon emissions in the supply chains of multinational enterprises

“…Define as the carbon intensity matrix, which is a diagonalized matrix. The carbon emissions induced by final demand can be expressed as (2) Summing the matrix by rows (columns), we obtain the production-based (consumption-based) emissions of each country. We define as the final demand matrix of products from foreignowned firms in country and as the intermediate demand ratio matrix of products from foreign-owned firms in country .…”

Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

“…The NDC scenario was based on information from the NDCs on greenhouse gas reduction targets energy and land-use policies and on additional information from Kitous et al 37 , den Elzen et al 38 , Grassi et al 39 (land use estimates), and information from the UNFCCC (see Supplementary Tables 6-8 for details). The NDC targets can be divided into absolute emission reduction targets, business as usual reductions, emission-intensity reductions, and projects absent of greenhouse gas emission targets 40 . All G20 countries`NDCs are of the first three types.…”

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“…Como decíamos previamente, ciertos temas serán necesarios de revisar en la nueva NDC, en particular: una meta absoluta de reducción de emisiones y no relativa, en consonancia con la literatura señalada más arriba; fijación del año peak a partir del cual las emisiones globales descenderán, en consonancia con el AP y las últimas recomendaciones del IPCC; metas en consonancia con un nuevo escenario de carbono neutralidad que tenga en cuenta la incertidumbre respecto del sector UTCUTS dada la ocurrencia recurrente de incendios en el país, que altera el balance de emisiones y capturas como señalado por King et al (2019) y cuyo rol es esencial para lograr la ambición; y utilizar los análisis ya desaarrollados en base a la variable de la equidad y el reparto justo, de manera a tener un buen diagnóstico y una NDC sólida.…”