Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: A global analysis

A Normative Exploration of the Link Between Development, Economic Growth, and Natural Risk

“…Increased investments in disaster risk reduction have lead to a significant reduction in human casualties (Kahn 2005;Kellenberg and Mobarak 2008), but economic losses from natural disasters have been growing as fast or even faster than economic growth in many countries, see for instance Barredo (2009), Miller et al (2008, Neumayer and Barthel (2010), Nordhaus (2010), Pielke et al (2008), and Bouwer et al (2007). This evolution can be explained by population and economic growth (richer countries have more assets that can be lost or damaged), and is magnified by an increasing exposure to risk, even in relative terms (an increasing share of assets is located in at-risk areas) (Schmidt et al 2009;Neumayer and Barthel 2010;Bouwer 2011;Jongman et al 2012;IPCC 2012 hurricane-prone areas can explain why hurricane losses are increasing more rapidly than GDP in the US (Pielke et al 2008).…”

“…This evolution can be explained by population and economic growth (richer countries have more assets that can be lost or damaged), and is magnified by an increasing exposure to risk, even in relative terms (an increasing share of assets is located in at-risk areas) (Schmidt et al 2009;Neumayer and Barthel 2010;Bouwer 2011;Jongman et al 2012;IPCC 2012 hurricane-prone areas can explain why hurricane losses are increasing more rapidly than GDP in the US (Pielke et al 2008). Globally, there is a trend toward higher exposure to risk: between 1970 and 2010, global population grew by 87%, but the population living in flood plains increased by 114% and in cyclone-prone coastlines by 192%.…”

What Role for “Long-term Insurance” in Adaptation? An Analysis of the Prospects for and Pricing of Multi-year Insurance Contracts

“…Over the past three decades, global economic losses from weather-related events have increased at a rate of US$2.7 billion per year in real terms; that is, a tripling of annual damages over the period (Neumayer and Barthel, 2011). Several studies have shown that this increase has been mainly driven by an increasing exposure to disasters (e.g.…”

Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts

“…This is also reflected by an increase in the frequency of extreme weather-related disasters over the same period (Neumayer and Barthel, 2011). Recent studies from Mexico and Colombia highlight both variability and positive trends in disaster frequency (unadjusted) losses and other damage metrics (Saldaña-Zorrilla and Sandberg, 2009;Marulanda et al, 2010;Rodriguez-Oreggia et al, 2013).…”

“…Studies of normalized losses from extreme winds associated with hurricanes in the USA (Miller et al, 2008;Pielke Jr. et al, 2008;Schmidt et al, 2010;Bouwer and Botzen, 2011) and the Caribbean (Pielke Jr. et al, 2003), tornadoes in the USA (Brooks and Doswell, 2002;Boruff et al, 2003;Simmons et al, 2013), and wind storms in Europe (Barredo, 2010) have failed to detect trends consistent with anthropogenic climate change, although some studies were able to find signals in loss records related to climate variability, such as damage and loss of life due to wildfires in Australia related to ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole phenomena (Crompton et al, 2010), or typhoon loss variability in the western North Pacific (Welker and Faust, 2013). Effects of adaptation measures (disaster risk prevention) on disaster loss changes over time cannot be excluded as research is currently not able to control for this factor (Neumayer and Barthel, 2011). …”