Not a crystal ball: Mapping opportunities and threats for the future demand of red blood cells in the Netherlands using a scenario approach

Abstract

Background As Western blood transfusion practices are changing, there is interest and need in anticipating the future demand of blood products and how a blood establishment can actively prepare for various long‐term developments. This article provides an overview of how a scenario approach was used to prioritize key categories of drivers for the future demand of red blood cells and the organizational implications thereof for Sanquin, the Dutch national blood establishment. Study Design and Methods Based on previously identified drivers from interviews and a literature review (Step 1), we conducted scenario sessions and a survey to rank a list of drivers (“themes”) with its related opportunities and threats (Step 2), to identify mitigating measures per theme through focus groups (Step 3). Results In Step 2, 10 themes were found that were classified in terms of importance and uncertainty. These were plotted on a two‐dimensional graph with an ellipse to indicate the interquartile ranges per theme. Experts rated the top three most important themes to be the blood supply organization, precision medicine, and red blood cell replacements. In Step 3, focus groups identified specific mitigating measures per theme. These measures had parallel ideas, such as the need for an innovative mentality, internal and external communication and collaboration, and building Sanquin's reputation and trust with the public. Conclusion Having identified the most important themes with suggestions for mitigating measures, Sanquin can take steps to become adaptive and proactive. Other blood establishments may also use a scenario approach to create contextualized long‐term strategies.

Using a scenario approach to assess for the current and future demand of immunoglobulins: An interview and literature study from The Netherlands

“…Using this approach could be an alternate, and more independent (non‐biased) approach to purchasing reports from commercial companies. Other blood establishments could use this work as a starting point and modify it accordingly, even taking it further by assessing the mitigating measures to mitigate the threats and embrace the opportunities, 107 or using traditional scenario methodology and choosing to focus on certain transformational factors to create specific future scenarios. 15 This methodology was used by Sanquin to make recommendations to the Ministry of Health regarding the need for increased plasma collections, which resulted in the opening of the first plasma‐only collection in the Netherlands center in 2020.…”

“Something we must be proud of”: An interview and document study of team improvisation in the Dutch convalescent plasma project group

“…Based on our previous work, we found that disruptive events (including a global pandemic) are an important theme that would impact blood product demand so that BEs should become more adaptive, flexible, and be open to change. 13 These elements are important in resilience, and the pandemic was the perfect opportunity to study these elements in action through the singular and collective actions of the teams that undertook COVID‐19 activities. Due to the CCP project being one of the first and most spotlighted projects in the organization, 2 it was a unique opportunity to study team improvisation within this group.…”