Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2020: Intense Surveillance Is Vital for Preventing Sustained Transmission in New Locations

Abstract

The outbreak of pneumonia originating in Wuhan, China, has generated 24,500 confirmed cases, including 492 deaths, as of 5 February 2020. The virus (2019-nCoV) has spread elsewhere in China and to 24 countries, including South Korea, Thailand, Japan and USA. Fortunately, there has only been limited human-to-human transmission outside of China. Here, we assess the risk of sustained transmission whenever the coronavirus arrives in other countries. Data describing the times from symptom onset to hospitalisation for 47 patients infected early in the current outbreak are used to generate an estimate for the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission. Under the assumptions that the imported case is representative of the patients in China, and that the 2019-nCoV is similarly transmissible to the SARS coronavirus, the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission is 0.41 (credible interval [0.27, 0.55]). However, if the mean time from symptom onset to hospitalisation can be halved by intense surveillance, then the probability that an imported case leads to sustained transmission is only 0.012 (credible interval [0, 0.099]). This emphasises the importance of current surveillance efforts in countries around the world, to ensure that the ongoing outbreak will not become a global pandemic.

Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)

“…While countermeasures to prevent epidemic spread require the sort of strong political decisions that resulted in strong movement restrictions, our study indicated that the delay to a major epidemic in countries other than China (using Japan as an example) was unfortunately minimal. While the complete lockdown of Wuhan, Wenzhou, and Shenzhen likely helped reduce case incidence outside of these cities, migration from other cities in China could still contribute to the spread of infection locally and internationally [24][25][26]. To quantify the epidemiological impact for the entire course of the epidemic more precisely, a more detailed analysis using dynamic datasets, e.g., airline passenger data, should be explored in the future.…”

First respiratory transmitted food borne outbreak?

“…Cases have also been reported from other Chinese provinces and with > 300 cases outside China. Currently, the person-to-person transmission is considered the main mode of transmission and rigorous surveillance in other countries is required to prevent further global expansion of the outbreak (Thompson, 2020, Imai et al, 2020. Resolving the exact mechanism of the initial transmission events is crucial in preventing this type of outbreaks from occurring.…”

“…Resolving the outbreak in this situation is extremely challenging due to the high media interest and political pressure. The prevention of expansion of the outbreak requires other measures (Thompson, 2020). Often during the outbreak investigations, the information flow between health and food control authorities faces unplanned walls.…”

Clinical Characteristics of Imported Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Jiangsu Province: A Multicenter Descriptive Study

“…1 They have enveloped virions that appear as round or oval, often polymorphous, with a diameter of 60-140nm. 2 It is widely distributed in human and other mammals, and its genome is more distant from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS CoV) 3,4 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS CoV) 5,6 . Since December 2019, a large number of patients infected with COVID-19 have been reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province.…”