Novel Index for bioclimatic zone-based biodiversity conservation strategies under climate change in Northeast Asia

Abstract

Biodiversity is rapidly declining globally and targeted efforts are needed to mitigate the loss of species. Conventional conservation efforts have focused on establishing protected areas and restoring degraded lands in order to maintain current conditions or restore ecosystems to a pre-damaged state. However, as the climate changes, the current bioclimatic zones will be re-distributed globally. Historical distribution patterns may no longer serve as an effective guide for supporting biodiversity under climate change. In response to these challenges, this study proposes a spatially explicit strategy for biodiversity conservation that takes climate change into account using bioclimatic classification. The bioclimatic classification maps of Northeast Asia (NEA) were constructed for three historical time periods (the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s) and two future time periods (the 2050s and 2070s) using five general circulation models (GCMs) in representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenarios. It was predicted that, in general, zones are shifting north, and some zones are expanding or shrinking rapidly. Based on an analysis of latitudinal and areal change for each zone, the bioclimate vulnerability index (BVI) and naturality index (NI) were developed to quantify the impact of environmental change. As a result of the BVI analysis, the distribution of vulnerable zones is expected to shift northward and expand. As is evident with the increased vulnerability of the subarctic region caused by the expansion of the temperate climate, the extent of vulnerable zones will increase. Also, the southern regions of NEA are becoming vulnerable due to the transformation of the temperate zone to a more subtropical zone. Quadrant graphs based on the BVI and NI were created to present appropriate strategies for each zone. Our proposed framework shows that conservation strategies should be modified based on the changes in the relative position of each zone over time.

Water-Centric Nexus Approach for the Agriculture and Forest Sectors in Response to Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula

“…Although the expected precipitation in the Korean Peninsula increases because of climate change, rainfall intensity and heat waves will also increase [12,44,67]. Therefore, the irrigation requirements for the forecasted crop production will also increase.…”

“…Most climate change-related disasters or large-scale events are caused by hydrological changes, such as droughts and floods [11,12]. For instance, the Korean Peninsula experienced heavy flooding and landslides in 2011 because of record heavy torrential rains [13] and record droughts for 2014 to 2015 and 2017, which led to a shortage of agricultural water [14,15].…”

Multi-Model Approaches to the Spatialization of Tree Vitality Surveys: Constructing a National Tree Vitality Map

“…The established maps were also verified using the bioclimate vulnerability index (BVI) suggested by [58]. The BVI is an index that evaluates the impact of climate change on habitat and spatially presents vulnerable areas.…”

“…The BVI is an index that evaluates the impact of climate change on habitat and spatially presents vulnerable areas. BVI quantified the impact of climate change in terms of moving speed and the area change rate (Equation ( 2)) of the bioclimatic zone, which are areas with similar environmental characteristics affecting the habitat and species [58,59]. The regions with higher BVI are considered as a more vulnerable area to climate change, which can affect the vitality of vegetation [60]:…”

“…Further detailed description for the BVI is provided in Choi et al (2019). We compared the spatial distribution patterns of bio-climatically vulnerable areas to regions with low tree vitality grades.…”