Novel model integrating computed tomography-based image markers with genetic markers for discriminating radiation pneumonitis in patients with unresectable stage III non-small cell lung cancer receiving radiotherapy: a retrospective multi-center radiogenomics study

Abstract

Background Chemoradiotherapy is a critical treatment for patients with locally advanced and unresectable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and it is essential to identify high-risk patients as early as possible owing to the high incidence of radiation pneumonitis (RP). Increasing attention is being paid to the effects of endogenous factors for RP. This study aimed to investigate the value of computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics combined with genomics in analyzing the risk of grade ≥ 2 RP in unresectable stage III NSCLC. Methods In this retrospective multi-center observational study, 100 patients with unresectable stage III NSCLC who were treated with chemoradiotherapy were analyzed. Radiomics features of the entire lung were extracted from pre-radiotherapy CT images. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm was used for optimal feature selection to calculate the Rad-score for predicting grade ≥ 2 RP. Genomic DNA was extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded pretreatment biopsy tissues. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of RP for model development. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the predictive capacity of the model. Statistical comparisons of the area under the curve values between different models were performed using the DeLong test. Calibration and decision curves were used to demonstrate discriminatory and clinical benefit ratios, respectively. Results The Rad-score was constructed from nine radiomic features to predict grade ≥ 2 RP. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that histology, Rad-score, and XRCC1 (rs25487) allele mutation were independent high-risk factors correlated with RP. The area under the curve of the integrated model combining clinical factors, radiomics, and genomics was significantly higher than that of any single model (0.827 versus 0.594, 0.738, or 0.641). Calibration and decision curve analyses confirmed the satisfactory clinical feasibility and utility of the nomogram. Conclusion Histology, Rad-score, and XRCC1 (rs25487) allele mutation could predict grade ≥ 2 RP in patients with locally advanced unresectable NSCLC after chemoradiotherapy, and the integrated model combining clinical factors, radiomics, and genomics demonstrated the best predictive efficacy.