Now What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? Survey Studies of Educated Laypeople

Abstract

In 1992 a mental models-based survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, revealed that educated laypeople often conflated global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, and appeared relatively unaware of the role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in global warming. This study compares those survey results with 2009 data from a sample of similarly well-educated laypeople responding to the same survey instrument. Not surprisingly, following a decade of explosive attention to climate change in politics and in the mainstream media, survey respondents in 2009 showed higher awareness and comprehension of some climate change causes. Most notably, unlike those in 1992, 2009 respondents rarely mentioned ozone depletion as a cause of global warming. They were also far more likely to correctly volunteer energy-use as a major cause of climate change; many in 2009 also cited natural processes and historical climatic cycles as key causes. When asked how to address the problem of climate change, while respondents in 1992 were unable to differentiate between general “good environmental practices” and actions specific to addressing climate change, respondents in 2009 have begun to appreciate the differences. Despite this, many individuals in 2009 still had incorrect beliefs about climate change, and still did not appear to fully appreciate key facts such as that global warming is primarily due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the single most important source of this carbon dioxide is the combustion of fossil fuels.

Gaining trust as well as respect in communicating to motivated audiences about science topics

“…The public's issue with science is not necessarily ignorance (7). The public increasingly knows more than before about climate change's causes (8). Psychology undergraduates at least can judge both science and nonscience arguments by the amount and reliability of their evidence (9).…”

How much will the sea level rise? Outcome selection and subjective probability in climate change predictions.

“…The public have developed a better awareness of climate change and its risks (Read, Bostrom, Morgan, Fischhoff, & Smuts, 1994;Reynolds, Bostrom, Read, & Morgan, 2010) although they may not see climate change as a priority (Leiserowitz, Maibach, Roser-Renouf, Feinberg, & Howe, 2013). A large body of research has focused on the ways that people understand climate change predictions (e.g., Budescu, Por, & Broomell, 2012;Budescu, Por, Broomell, & Smithson, 2014).…”

Informing Public Perceptions About Climate Change: A ‘Mental Models’ Approach

“…For example, engineers may talk about a "100-year flood" rather than a flood that has a "1% chance of happening each year" without realizing that people interpret the former as occurring at more predictable regular intervals than the latter (Bell and Tobin 2007;Keller et al 2006). Experts may use seemingly simple terms such as 'climate' without realizing that people confuse it with 'weather' Read et al 1994;Reynolds et al 2010). Indeed, Americans may become more concerned about climate change when local temperatures get hotter (Weber and Stern 2011) and UK residents when it gets wetter (Spence et al 2011;Taylor et al 2014).…”