Nowcasting Belgium

Liedo, David de Antonio

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2427578

Cited by 12 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 53 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…16 Oddly, the impact of the GfK consumer confidence even displays the wrong sign: a positive surprise in consumer confidence actually leads to a downward revision of the GDP nowcast. We believe that this result should rather be interpreted as a zero impact.…”

Section: Performance Relative To Benchmarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys

2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Editor Jan Smets, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium Terms of use: Documents in Statement of purpose:The purpose of these working papers is to promote the circulation of research results (Research Series) and analytical studies (Documents Series) made within the National Bank of Belgium or presented by external economists in seminars, conferences and conventions organised by the Bank. The aim is therefore to provide a platform for discussion. The opinions expressed are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bank of Belgium. Orders AbstractThis paper analyses the contribution of survey data, in particular various sentiment indicators, to nowcasts of quarterly euro area GDP. It uses a genuine real-time dataset that is constructed from original press releases in order to transform the actual data ow into an interpretable ow of news. The latter is de ned as the di erence between the released values and the prediction of a mixedfrequency dynamic factor model. Our purpose is twofold. First, we aim to quantify the speci c value added for nowcasting GDP from a set of heterogeneous data releases including not only sentiment indicators constructed by Eurostat, Markit,

show abstract

Section: Performance Relative To Benchmarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys

2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

The Role of Survey Data in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth

Girardi

Gayer

Reuter

2015

Journal of Forecasting

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper evaluates the impact of new releases of financial, real activity and survey data on nowcasting euro area gross domestic product (GDP). We show that all three data categories positively impact on the accuracy of GDP nowcasts, whereby the effect is largest in the case of real activity data. When treating variables as if they were all published at the same time and without any time lag, financial series lose all their significance, while survey data remain an important ingredient for the nowcasting exercise. The subsequent analysis shows that the sectoral coverage of survey data, which is broader than that of timely available real activity data, as well as their information content stemming from questions focusing on agents' expectations, are the main sources of the 'genuine' predictive power of survey data. When the forecast period is restricted to the 2008-09 financial crisis, the main change is an enhanced forecasting role for financial data.

show abstract

Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico

Caruso

2018

Economic Modelling

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Nowcasting Belgium

Cited by 12 publications

References 53 publications

Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys

Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys

The Role of Survey Data in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth

Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About