Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events Using Principal Component Analysis

Papaioannou, Athanasios; Anastasiadis, A.; Kouloumvakos, A.; Paassilta, Miikka; Vainio, R.; Валтонен, Э.; Белов, А. В.; Eroshenko, E.; Abunina, M. A.; Аbunin, А. А.

doi:10.1007/s11207-018-1320-7

Cited by 32 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…The peak (0.05-0.4 nm)/(0.1-0.8 nm) flare fluxes are a SEP event forecasting parameter that has been demonstrated but thus far not used in any forecasting program. Recent work based on selected solar event parameters as components of a logistic regression (Laurenza et al, 2009), a multiple-regression method (Park et al, 2017), and a principal component analysis (Papaioannou et al, 2018) have shown promise toward better SEP event forecasts. The X-ray flare peak flux ratios can be readily calculated shortly after observation of the peak 0.1-0.8 nm fluxes on GOES spacecraft.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with Flare X-ray peak ratios

Kahler

Ling

2018

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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Solar flare X-ray peak fluxes and fluences in the 0.1–0.8 nm band are often used in models to forecast solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Garcia (2004) [Forecasting methods for occurrence and magnitude of proton storms with solar soft X rays, Space Weather, 2, S02002, 2004] used ratios of the 0.05–0.4 and 0.1–0.8 nm bands of the X-ray instrument on the GOES spacecraft to plot inferred peak flare temperatures versus peak 0.1–0.8 nm fluxes for flares from 1988 to 2002. Flares associated with E > 10 MeV SEP events of >10 proton flux units (pfu) had statistically lower peak temperatures than those without SEP events and therefore offered a possible empirical forecasting tool for SEP events. We review the soft and hard X-ray flare spectral variations as SEP event forecast tools and repeat Garcia’s work for the period 1998–2016, comparing both the peak ratios and the ratios of the preceding 0.05–0.4 nm peak fluxes to the later 0.1–0.8 nm peak fluxes of flares >M3 to the occurrence of associated SEP events. We divide the events into eastern and western hemisphere sources and compare both small (1.2–10 pfu) and large (≥300 pfu) SEP events with those of >10 pfu. In the western hemisphere X-ray peak ratios are statistically lower for >10 pfu SEP events than for non-SEP events and are even lower for the large (>300 pfu) events. The small SEP events, however, are not distinguished from the non-SEP events. We discuss the possible connections between the flare X-ray peak ratios and associated coronal mass ejections that are presumed to be the sources of the SEPs.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with Flare X-ray peak ratios

Kahler

Ling

2018

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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“…Instead, we apply temporal and spatial criteria similar to those used by other researchers (see e.g. Vrsnak et al, 2005;Youssef, 2012;Papaioannou et al, 2016;2018a;2018b, and references therein). From the CDAW database, we obtain the time (t1) when the CME first appears in LASCO C2 coronagraph, and estimate the lift-off time (t0) using a simple back-extrapolation method of its trajectory to the Sun's surface:…”

Section: Association Of a Cme With A Solar Flarementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Projection Correction of Coronal Mass Ejection Speeds on Time‐of‐Arrival Prediction Performance Using the Effective Acceleration Model

et al. 2021

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White light images of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are projections on the plane‐of‐sky (POS). As a result, CME kinematics are subject to projection effects. The error in the true (deprojected) speed of CMEs is one of the main causes of uncertainty to Space Weather forecasts, since all estimates of the CME time‐of‐arrival (ToA) at a certain location within the heliosphere require, as input, the CME speed. We use single viewpoint observations for 1,037 flare‐CME events between 1996 and 2017 and propose a new approach for the correction of the CME speed assuming radial propagation from the flare site. Our method is uniquely capable to produce physically reasonable deprojected speeds across the full range of source longitudes. We bound the uncertainty in the deprojected speed estimates via limits in the true angular width of a CME based on multiview‐point observations. Our corrections range up to 1.37–2.86 for CMEs originating from the center of the disk. On average, the deprojected speeds are 12.8% greater than their POS speeds. For slow CMEs (VPOS < 400 km/s) the full ice‐cream cone model performs better while for fast and very fast CMEs (VPOS > 700 km/s) the shallow ice‐cream model gives much better results. CMEs with 691–878 km/s POS speeds have a minimum ToA mean absolute error (MAE) of 11.6 h. This method, is robust, easy to use, and has immediate applicability to Space Weather forecasting applications. Moreover, regarding the speed of CMEs, our work suggests that single viewpoint observations are generally reliable.

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“…For the solar population modeling, there is SOLar Particle ENgineering Code (SOLPENCO, Aran et al, , ). Other potential SEP models include those participating in the SEP scoreboard (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/sep.php), such as COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP model, Crosby et al, ), SEPForecast, Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF model, Anastasiadis et al, ; Papaioannou et al, ), UMASEP (Núñez, , ; Núñez et al, ), PREDICCS (http://prediccs.sr.unh.edu/; Schwadron et al, ), AER SEP model (Winter et al, ), SPRINTS (Engell et al, ), and REleASE/High‐Energy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis (e.g., Posner et al, ; Malandraki and Crosby, ).…”

Section: Initial Set Of Space Environment Models and Effect Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space Radiation and Plasma Effects on Satellites and Aviation: Quantities and Metrics for Tracking Performance of Space Weather Environment Models

et al. 2019

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The Community Coordinated Modeling Center has been leading community‐wide space science and space weather model validation projects for many years. These efforts have been broadened and extended via the newly launched International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/). Its objective is to track space weather models' progress and performance over time, a capability that is critically needed in space weather operations and different user communities in general. The Space Radiation and Plasma Effects Working Team of the aforementioned International Forum works on one of the many focused evaluation topics and deals with five different subtopics (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/radiation-all.php) and varieties of particle populations: Surface Charging from tens of eV to 50‐keV electrons and internal charging due to energetic electrons from hundreds keV to several MeVs. Single‐event effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays (several MeV to TeV), total dose due to accumulation of doses from electrons (>100 keV) and protons (>1 MeV) in a broad energy range, and radiation effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays at aviation altitudes. A unique aspect of the Space Radiation and Plasma Effects focus area is that it bridges the space environments, engineering, and user communities. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current status and to suggest a guide for how to best validate space environment models for operational/engineering use, which includes selection of essential space environment and effect quantities and appropriate metrics.

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Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events Using Principal Component Analysis

Cited by 32 publications

References 54 publications

Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with Flare X-ray peak ratios

Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with Flare X-ray peak ratios

Assessing the Projection Correction of Coronal Mass Ejection Speeds on Time‐of‐Arrival Prediction Performance Using the Effective Acceleration Model

Space Radiation and Plasma Effects on Satellites and Aviation: Quantities and Metrics for Tracking Performance of Space Weather Environment Models

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