Numeracy and the Persuasive Effect of Policy Information and Party Cues

Abstract

Numeric political appeals represent a prevalent but overlooked domain of public opinion research. When can quantitative information change political attitudes, and is this change trumped by partisan effects? We analyze how numeracy-or individual differences in citizens' ability to process and apply numeric policy information-moderates the effectiveness of numeric political appeals on a moderately salient policy issue. Results show that those low in numeracy exhibit a strong party-cue effect, treating numeric information in a superficial and heuristic fashion. Conversely, those high in numeracy are persuaded by numeric information, even when it is sponsored by the opposing party, overcoming the party-cue effect. Our results make clear that overlooking numeric ability when analyzing quantitative political appeals can mask significant persuasion effects, and we build on recent work advancing the understanding of individual differences in public opinion.

A focus on partisanship: How it impacts voting behaviors and political attitudes

“…If partisan judgments are a result of cognitive effort minimization, prompting more effortful systematic processing should attenuate the effects of partisanship. In line with this notion, factors linked to systematic processing, such as motivation and ability to process information, reduce the effects of partisanship on judgment (Mérola & Hitt, 2015; Mullinix, 2016; Prior, Sood, & Khanna, 2015). Below we discuss these findings in detail.…”

“…Second, partisanship is associated with reduced decision difficulty. It provides a mental shortcut for making voting decisions: by merely looking at candidates' party affiliations, partisan voters get information about the alignment of the candidates' program with their values and interests (Bullock, 2011;Gant & Luttbeg, 1987;Lau & Redlawsk, 2001;Mérola & Hitt, 2015;Rahn, 1993). Additionally, partisan labels make the candidates more discriminable in the eyes of the public (Heit & Rubinstein, 1994;Mogilner, Rudnick, & Iyengar, 2008;Sloutsky, 2003).…”

“…In addition to mobilizing voters, partisanship can potentially improve voters' decisions because candidates' party affiliations carry information about their positions on policy issues (Gant & Luttbeg, 1987;Lau & Redlawsk, 2001;Mérola & Hitt, 2015;Rahn, 1993). When it comes to making decisions in the voting booth, voters may no longer recall each candidate's policy stances.…”

“…Similarly, when motivated by the personal relevance of a given issue, people are less likely to rely on partisan cues when evaluating policy (Mullinix, 2016). By the same token, partisan cues become less influential when ability to process non-partisan information is greater (Mérola & Hitt, 2015): as such, highly numerate people are more likely to focus on the numerical information supporting a policy, versus on which party is presenting that information.…”

Attitudes on the Size of Unemployment Benefits: Ideology and Numbers

“…However, while one might be able to come up with examples of policy issues where numbers are irrelevant, numbers are clearly not just relevant on economic issues. Even public support for war may be moved by numbers on casualties (Gartner ), and attitudes regarding crime and punishment may also be affected by numbers on incarceration rates and costs (Mérola & Hitt ). Thus, the effects of units, anchoring and precision may be numerical in nature, but so is modern politics.…”