Numerical investigation of the Pedrógão Grande pyrocumulonimbus using a fire to atmosphere coupled model

Couto, Flavio Tiago; Filippi, Jean-Baptiste; Baggio, Roberta; Campos, Cátia; Salgado, Rui

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107223

Cited by 4 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…This convective outflow was also observed in the CTRL simulation. This situation was not identified in the previous simulation [28], which documented the approaching of a gusty front in the fire region, but not a downburst.…”

Section: Analysis Of the Plume-dominated Regime Periodcontrasting

confidence: 56%

“…We evaluated the simulations by comparison with previous studies that documented the wildfire evolution on the basis of observations [33,35], as well as numerical simulations of the atmospheric environment [34] and fire environment using a fire to atmosphere simulation [28]. The next section presents the results and a general discussion about the CTRL and fully coupled simulations.…”

Section: Forefire Fire Propagation Model Configurationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, high-resolution simulations enhance the accuracy of such predictions by considering factors such as wind patterns, terrain, and fuel types [23]. The Meso-NH-ForeFire model is one of the numerical modeling tools able to represent the complex fire-atmosphere system and has been successfully used in the last decade [24][25][26][27][28]. Meso-NH is an open area, research Numerical Weather Prediction model which can be used to forecast atmospheric motions on a large range of scales [29], spanning from thousands of kilometers to a few meters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the most remarkable event was the sudden area expansion that took by surprise those traveling on the roads, particularly in EN 236-1. To understand this episode at the fire-scale environment, the impact of the fire on the atmosphere was recently studied using a fire to atmosphere simulation, which showed a fire-generated thunderstorm during the Pedrógão Grande wildfire [28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With respect to a previous study by Couto [28], which is based on a one-way fire to atmosphere coupling, here we use the fully coupled version of the Meso-NH-ForeFire code, which allows us to investigate the impact of fire-induced atmospheric motions on the fire's own propagation. In other words, the modeling considers both the impact of the fire on the local atmosphere and the influence of the atmospheric conditions on the progression of the fire front itself.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Triggering Pyro-Convection in a High-Resolution Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Simulation

Couto,

Filippi,

Baggio

et al. 2024

Fire

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This study aimed to assess fire–atmosphere interactions using the fully coupled Meso-NH–ForeFire system. We focused on the Pedrógão Grande wildfire (28,914 ha), which occurred in June 2017 and was one of the deadliest and most damaging fires in Portugal’s history. Two simulations (control and fully coupled fire–atmosphere) were performed for three two-way nested domains configured with horizontal resolutions of 2 km, 0.4 km, and 0.08 km, respectively, in the atmospheric model Meso-NH. Fire propagation was modeled within the innermost domain with ForeFire, which solves the fire front with a 20 m resolution, producing the heat and vapor fluxes which are then injected into the atmospheric model. A simplified homogeneous fuel distribution was used in this case study. The fully coupled experiment helped us to characterize the smoke plume structure and identify two different regimes: (1) a wind-driven regime, with the smoke plume transported horizontally southward and in the lower troposphere, and (2) a plume-dominated regime, in which the simulated smoke plume extended vertically up to upper levels, favoring the formation of a pyro-cloud. The simulations were compared, and the results suggest that the change in the fire regime was caused by an outflow that affected the main fire front. Furthermore, the fully coupled simulation allowed us to explore the change in meteorology caused by an extreme fire, namely through the development of a pyro-cloud that also induced outflows that reached the surface. We show that the Meso-NH–ForeFire system may strongly contribute to an improved understanding of extreme wildfires events and associated weather phenomena.

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Section: Analysis Of the Plume-dominated Regime Periodcontrasting

confidence: 56%

Section: Forefire Fire Propagation Model Configurationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Triggering Pyro-Convection in a High-Resolution Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Simulation

Couto,

Filippi,

Baggio

et al. 2024

Fire

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Exploring the atmospheric conditions increasing fire danger in the Iberian Peninsula

Purificação,

Campos,

Henkes

et al. 2024

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The fire danger is particularly sensitive to meteorological conditions. The present study discusses the atmospheric conditions during three periods to evaluate how they can increase fire danger. A set of three convection‐permitting simulations was configured at 2.5 km resolution using the Meso‐NH model. In the first period, the intense surface heating induced by a heatwave favoured the development of the Iberian thermal low in July 2019, leading to the formation of precipitating systems and resulting in convective outflows that affected the central Iberian Peninsula. The outflows were shown to be an important feature in evaluating fire danger during the period; however, the simulation also highlighted the orographic effect as another phenomenon playing an important role in fire development and consequently enhancing the fire danger in some regions such as in the extreme southwest of Portugal. The orographic effect in this specific region was identified and analyzed in detail for two megafire events that occurred in Monchique in August 2003 and 2018. The Monchique Mountain's shape and orientation interacting with the airflow induced upslope and downslope winds that favoured the rapid propagation of the fire fronts in August 2018. The third experiment showed that the circulation of a sea breeze from the southern coast of Portugal may act as an enhancer for fire danger in the region when interacting with the regional mountain, such as verified in the 2003 megafire. The study shows that the fire danger over specific regions can be increased by different atmospheric phenomena and explored from atmospheric modelling. The convective outflows were an important factor enhancing fire danger; however, the orographic effect was confirmed as the main factor producing two megafires events in the extreme southwest of Portugal.

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ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Mainland Portugal during Four Fire Seasons

Campos,

Couto,

Santos

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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The study evaluated the ECMWF model ability in forecasting lightning in Portugal during four fire seasons (019–2022). The evaluation was made based on lightning data from the national lightning detector network, which was aggregated into resolutions of 0.5° and 1° over 3 h periods and analyzed from statistical indices using two contingency tables. The results showed that the model overestimates the lightning occurrence, with a BIAS greater than 1, with a success rate of 57.7% (49%) for a horizontal resolution of 1° (0.5°). The objective analysis was complemented by the spatial lightning distribution analysis, which indicated a time lag between the two data, i.e., the model started predicting lightning before its occurrence and finished the prediction earlier. Furthermore, such analysis revealed the lightning distribution being consistent with some weather patterns. The findings of this study provide insights into the applicability of the ECMWF lightning forecast data in the context of forecasting natural forest fires in Portugal.

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Numerical investigation of the Pedrógão Grande pyrocumulonimbus using a fire to atmosphere coupled model

Cited by 4 publications

References 38 publications

Triggering Pyro-Convection in a High-Resolution Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Simulation

Triggering Pyro-Convection in a High-Resolution Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Simulation

Exploring the atmospheric conditions increasing fire danger in the Iberian Peninsula

ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Mainland Portugal during Four Fire Seasons

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