Numerical Modeling of Historical Storm Tides and Waves and Their Interactions Along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts

Marsooli, Reza; Lin, Ning

doi:10.1029/2017jc013434

Cited by 110 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Using a higher resolution mesh is fundamental to an accurate simulation; however, the computing demand will increase as the mesh becomes finer. Additionally, the surf zones and shallow waters are well characterized with the mesh resolution developed in the present study ( Figure 3b) according to the report from [29][30][31]. Figure 3c).…”

Section: Description and Configuration Of The Wave-circulation Modelsupporting

confidence: 63%

Numerical Simulation of Large Wave Heights from Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016) in the Eastern Waters of Taiwan

Hsiao

Chen

et al. 2020

JMSE

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Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016) was used for this case study because it is the most intense typhoon that made landfall in Taiwan in the past decade. Winds extracted from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSV2) and ERA5 datasets and merged with a parametric typhoon model using two hybrid techniques served as the meteorological conditions for driving a coupled wave-circulation model. The computed significant wave heights were compared with the observations recorded at three wave buoys in the eastern waters of Taiwan. Model performance in terms of significant wave height was also investigated by employing the CFSV2 winds under varying spatial and temporal resolutions. The results of the numerical experiments reveal that the simulated storm wave heights tended to decrease significantly due to the lower spatial resolution of the hourly winds from the CFSV2 dataset; however, the variations in the storm wave height simulations were less sensitive to the temporal resolution of the wind field. Introducing the combination of the CFSV2 and the parametric typhoon winds greatly improved the storm wave simulations, and similar phenomena can be found in the exploitation of the ERA5 dataset blended into the parametric wind field. The overall performance of the hybrid winds derived from ERA5 was better than that from the CFSV2, especially in the outer region of Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016).

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Section: Description and Configuration Of The Wave-circulation Modelsupporting

confidence: 63%

Numerical Simulation of Large Wave Heights from Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016) in the Eastern Waters of Taiwan

Hsiao

Chen

et al. 2020

JMSE

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“…The mesh has a resolution of between 1 km nearshore and 100 km in the deep ocean. Marsooli and Lin (2018) evaluated the model performance for historical TCs and found satisfactory agreements between modeled and observed storm surges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, with an overall root-mean-square error (RMSE), bias, and Willmott skill (Willmott 1981) of 0.33 m, 0.01 m, and 0.88, respectively. In the present study, this model is applied to model ETC storm surges along the U.S. East Coast.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Storm surges are simulated using the advanced circulation model (ADCIRC), a finite-element computational tool originally developed by Luettich et al (Luettich Jr et al 1992) and Westerink et al (1994) to compute flow and transport in rivers, estuarine, coastal, and oceanic systems. We run the depth-averaged hydrodynamic module of ADCIRC on the basin-scale computational mesh generated by Marsooli and Lin (2018). This computational domain covers the western North Atlantic Ocean, extending between latitudes 8 and 46 degrees north and longitudes 98 and 60 degrees west.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm surge return levels induced by mid-to-late-twenty-first-century extratropical cyclones in the Northeastern United States

2019

Self Cite

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We investigate the impact of climate change on the storm surges induced by extratropical cyclones (ETCs) between November and March. We quantify changes to the storm surge between a historical period and a future period during the mid to late twenty-first century (2054-2079) for a number of major coastal cities in the Northeastern United States. Observed water levels are analyzed to estimate storm surges induced by ETCs during the historical period. A hydrodynamic model is utilized to simulate storm surges induced by ETCs projected for the future climate by seven global climate models. The biases in the hydrodynamic and climate models are calculated and removed from the simulated surge heights. Statistical methods, including the peaks-over-threshold method, are applied to estimate the storm surge return levels. We find that future projections based on most of the climate models indicate relatively small effects of climate change on ETC storm surges. The weighted-average projections over all climate models show a small increase in storm surge return levels (less than 7% increase in 10-and 50-year surge heights). However, uncertainties exist among the climate models and projections from one climate model show a substantial increase in the storm surge return levels (up to 27% and 36% increase in 10-and 50-year surge heights, respectively). These uncertainties, and likely the larger impact of sea level rise, should be accounted for in projecting the risk posted by ETC flooding.Climatic Change (2019) 154:143-158 https://doi.

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“…A number of other studies continue to examine atmosphere-land-ocean feedback processess in very near coastal estuarine environments. For example, Marsooli and Lin (2018) applied a two-way coupled ocean-wave prediction system in the New York -New Jersey region for a simulation of Hurricane Sandy to illustrate the benefit of representing coupled feedbacks in an extreme event for improving storm tides. Akan et al (2017) applied a nested implementation of the COAWST coupled modelling system to examine wave-current interactions at the mouth of the Columbia River.…”

Section: Recent Progress In Regional Coupled Model Research Developmmentioning

confidence: 99%

The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system

Lewis¹,

Sanchez²,

Fallmann³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper describes an updated configuration of the regional coupled research system, termed UKC3, developed and evaluated under the UK Environmental Prediction collaboration. This represents a further step towards a vision of simulating the numerous interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land using more integrated regional coupled prediction systems at km-scale resolution. The UKC3 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean surface waves (WAVEWATCH III), coupled together using OASIS3-MCT libraries. The major update introduced since the UKC2 configuration is an explicit representation of wave processes in the ocean and their feedbacks through wave-to-ocean coupling. Ocean model results demonstrate that wave coupling, in particular representing the wave modified surface drag, has a small but positive improvement on the agreement between simulated sea surface temperatures and in situ observations, relative to simulations without wave feedbacks. Other incremental developments to the coupled modelling capability introduced since the UKC2 configuration are also detailed. Coupled regional prediction systems are of interest for applications across a range of timescales, from hours to decades ahead. The first results of simulations run over extended periods, covering four experiments each of order one month in duration are therefore analysed and discussed in the context of further characterising the potential benefits of coupled prediction on forecast skill, and on the stability of such systems over longer time periods. Results across atmosphere, ocean and wave components are shown to be of at least comparable skill to the equivalent uncoupled control simulations, with notable improvements demonstrated in surface temperature and wave state predictions in some near-coastal regions, and in wind speeds over the sea.

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Numerical Modeling of Historical Storm Tides and Waves and Their Interactions Along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts

Cited by 110 publications

References 62 publications

Numerical Simulation of Large Wave Heights from Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016) in the Eastern Waters of Taiwan

Numerical Simulation of Large Wave Heights from Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016) in the Eastern Waters of Taiwan

Storm surge return levels induced by mid-to-late-twenty-first-century extratropical cyclones in the Northeastern United States

The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system

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