Numerical simulation of contemporary kinematics at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its implications for seismic hazard assessment

Abstract

Abstract. The slip rates of active faults in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP) require clarification to understand the lateral expansion of the Tibetan Plateau and assess the seismic hazards in this region. To obtain the continuous slip rates of active faults at the NETP, we constructed a three-dimensional (3D) numerical geomechanics model that includes a complex 3D fault system. The model also accounts for the physical rock properties, gravity fields, fault friction coefficients, initial stress, and boundary conditions. Following this, we present the long-term kinematics of NETP based on the horizontal and vertical velocities and fault slip rates acquired from the model. The fault kinematic characteristics indicate that the Laohushan, middle–southern Liupanshan, and Guguan–Baoji faults, as well as the junction area of the Maxianshan and Zhuanglanghe faults, are potential hazard areas for strong earthquakes. However, as these faults are currently in the stress accumulation stage, they are unlikely to cause a strong earthquake in the short term. In contrast, it is likely that the Jinqiangshan–Maomaoshan fault will generate a earthquake with a surface-wave magnitude (MS) of 7.1–7.3 in the coming decades. In addition, the velocity profiles across the NETP imply that the plate rotation is the primary deformation mechanism of the NETP even though the intra-block straining and faulting are non-negligible.