Numerical simulation of rainfall and temperature over Kenya using weather research and forecasting-environmental modelling system (WRF-EMS)

Abstract

This paper focuses on one of the high resolution models used for weather forecasting at Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). It reviews the skill and accuracy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model, in simulating weather over Kenya. The study period was March to May 2011, during the rainy season over Kenya. The model output was compared with the observed data from 27 synoptic stations spread over the study area, to determine the performance of the model in terms of its skill and accuracy in forecasting. The spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature showed that the WRF model was capable of reproducing the observed general pattern especially for temperature. The model has skill in forecasting both rainfall and temperature over the study area. However, the model may underestimate rainfall of more than 10 mm/day and displace its location and overestimate rainfall of less than 1 mm/day. Therefore, during the period of enhanced rainfall especially in the month of April and part of May the model forecast needs to be complemented by other models or forecasting methods before giving a forecast. There is need to improve its performance over the domain through review of the parameterization of small scale physical processes and more observed data need to be simulated into the model.

Understanding physical environment through safe highway transport mobility with special review on climate: The highway route Belgrade-Novi Sad, Serbia

“…Therefore, studying the influence of climate elements on various spheres of human activities and the environment has to be the field of interest for many different professions. Some studies on the influence of climate elements have already been initiated, such as: the effect of temperature and snow days on tourism movements (Stojsavljević et al, 2016); the impact of temperature and abundance of precipitation on the country's socio-economic development -the case of Kenya (Obaigwa Sagero et al, 2016); the influence of temperature, intensity of precipitation and wind speed on livestock development -the case of the Southwestern region (Havstad et al, 2018), etc. In terms of traffic planning, the most researched climate elements are precipitation and snow depth (Eisenberg, 2004;Bergel-Hayatet al, 2013;Theofilatos, Yannis, 2014).…”