Numerical simulation of the circulation and tropical teleconnection mechanisms of a severe drought event (2012–2016) in Northeastern Brazil

Medeiros, Felipe Jeferson de; Oliveira, Cristiano Prestrelo de; Silva, Cláudio Moisés Santos e; Araújo, João M. de

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05213-6

Cited by 19 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 98 publications

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“…Therefore, the lack of rainfall in the region can compromise the amount of water available along the basin. The results obtained through the SPI-12 analysis are in accordance with the ones obtained via different methodologies for the NEB [14,15,22,23]. Droughts were also detected in the SEB during the middle 2010s [25,26,53,54].…”

Section: Identification Of the Dry Periodssupporting

confidence: 81%

“…Due to its extension, it is subdivided into four regions: Upper, Middle, Middle, and Lower SF [18,19], with more than half of the SF River Basin (SFRB) in the NEB [20]; however, 70% of the outflow of the entire SF River comes from the SEB [21]. The NEB has documented droughts since the 16th century with significant social and economic impacts [14,15,22,23]. Paredes-Trejo et al [24] applied several drought indices based on remote sensing (SMOS-Based Soil Water Deficit Index, Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index, Water Storage Deficit Index, and GRACE-Based Groundwater Drought Index) and in soil (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and Standardized Streamflow Index) to analyze the impacts of different drought types on the SFRB.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drought Assessment in São Francisco River Basin, Brazil: Characterization through SPI and Associated Anomalous Climate Patterns

et al. 2021

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The São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) is one of the main watersheds in Brazil, standing out for generating energy and consumption, among other ecosystem services. Hence, it is important to identify hydrological drought events and the anomalous climate patterns associated with dry conditions. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for 12 months was used to identify hydrological drought episodes over SFRB 1979 and 2020. For these episodes, the severity, duration, intensity, and peak were obtained, and SPI-1 was applied for the longest and most severe episode to identify months with wet and dry conditions within the rainy season (Nov–Mar). Anomalous atmospheric and oceanic patterns associated with this episode were also analyzed. The results revealed the longest and most severe hydrological drought episode over the basin occurred between 2012 and 2020. The episode over the Upper portion of the basin lasted 103 months. The results showed a deficit of monthly precipitation up to 250 mm in the southeast and northeast regions of the country during the anomalous dry months identified through SPI-1. The dry conditions observed during the rainy season of this episode were associated with an anomalous high-pressure system acting close to the coast of Southeast Brazil, hindering the formation of precipitating systems.

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Section: Identification Of the Dry Periodssupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Assessment in São Francisco River Basin, Brazil: Characterization through SPI and Associated Anomalous Climate Patterns

et al. 2021

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“…Between 2014–2015, according [ 8 ], atmospheric circulation over SEB experienced severe changes at the regional scale, including atmospheric blocking, which drastically reduced rainfall and negatively impacted water storage in the basin. [ 3 ], also reported that alterations in the atmospheric circulation, detected by using a regional dynamic model, indicated a decrease in rainfall between 2012 and 2016.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dependence of hydropower planning in relation to the influence of climate in Northeast Brazil

2022

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Water scarcity in Northeast Brazil has caused latent perturbations in hydropower generation, which is undesirable for Energy Planning. Thus, this study aims to identify the influence of climate on hydropower generation by Sobradinho Dam in Bahia by: (i) assessing the streamflow climatology (1964–2017) and rainfall (1964–2015) through time series analysis, hypothesis testing and cluster analysis; (ii) assessing hydropower generation (2000–2017) using climate and energy data, through principal component analysis and dynamic regression models. The results indicated reductions of up to 30% in the mean climatological streamflow patterns; and reductions in rainfall amounts of 22.9%, 13.3% and 12.4% at latitudes 9°, 12°and 13°South, respectively. Decreasing trends were found in simulations of hydropower generation under the influence of different climate variables. Thus, the hydroelectric system operates in contingency, due to the growing energy load demand resulting in more energy imports in Northeast Brazil.

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“…Situated between latitudes 1 and 18°S and longitudes 34 and 48°W, the NEB region (Figure 1) is located east of the Amazon forest and west of the Atlantic Ocean. Most of its area is characterized by the semiarid climate, with a remarkable spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and high evapotranspiration rates, thus showing marked interannual variability (Marengo, 2010; Cabral Júnior et al ., 2019; Medeiros et al ., 2020). According to Cirilo et al .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of the modes of climate variability in the Tropical Pacific and Atlantic on accumulated rainfall and reservoir water volumes in the Northeast Brazil

Gomes

Lima

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The volumes of artificial reservoirs as well as the accumulated rainfall over the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) are sensible to the modes of climate variability. Thus, the objective of this study is to identify the relationship between the spatial patterns of the modes of climate variability in the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and the homogeneous rainfall subregions affecting the recharge of the water volumes of reservoirs in the NEB during the period from 1986 to 2018. For this end, we used monthly rainfall; monthly water volume data for artificial reservoirs; sea surface temperature anomalies in the Tropical Pacific and Tropical Atlantic Ocean. The first step was to apply cluster analysis to subdivide the NEB according to the monthly rainfall climatology. After, the technique of synthetic maximum rainfall series was applied. Then, the response time between rainfall climatology and reservoir water volume climatology was identified by means of cross‐correlation. Finally, the partial least squares regression was applied to infer the relationship between synthetic maximum rainfall series in each subregion and the modes of climate variability. Results showed that five homogeneous rainfall subregions with three distinct wet seasons. The synthetic time series of rainfall in the subregions were positively correlated with the climatology of the reservoir volumes with lags of up to 5 months after the beginning of the series. Both rainfall and the water volume of artificial reservoirs were sensible to the modes of climate variability of the studied oceans.

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Numerical simulation of the circulation and tropical teleconnection mechanisms of a severe drought event (2012–2016) in Northeastern Brazil

Cited by 19 publications

References 98 publications

Drought Assessment in São Francisco River Basin, Brazil: Characterization through SPI and Associated Anomalous Climate Patterns

Drought Assessment in São Francisco River Basin, Brazil: Characterization through SPI and Associated Anomalous Climate Patterns

The dependence of hydropower planning in relation to the influence of climate in Northeast Brazil

Influence of the modes of climate variability in the Tropical Pacific and Atlantic on accumulated rainfall and reservoir water volumes in the Northeast Brazil

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