NWSRFS CALIBRATION PARAMETER SELECTION AND GEOLOGIC REASONING: PACIFIC NORTHWEST CASES¹

Abstract

The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) is the new hydrologic prediction model for the National Weather Service (NWS) and provides guidance to meteorologists who issue NWS Flood Warnings to the public. The primary submodel within NWSRFS is the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC‐SMA) model, which predicts surface runoff as a function of meteorological, geological, and soil data calibrated over a watershed. The research presented here focuses on a different approach to NWSRFS calibrations: greater utilization of geologic and soil data, in order to give the model better predictive capability. Geologic understanding can create better insights for the initial estimation and subsequent adjustment of SAC‐SMA parameters. Fifteen calibrated Pacific Northwest drainages reveal a variety of hydrogeologic responses. For example, results for the Mount Rainier drainages show the complex interaction between active glaciers, impermeable volcanic surfaces, and glacial sedimentary valleys. Unweathered volcanic terrains show flashy peak flows, fast flow recessions, and low baseflow. Sedimentary terrains display subdued peak flows, slow flow recessions, and higher baseflow. Operational implementation of these calibrations at the NWS's Northwest River Forecast Center has yielded more accurate predictive results since 1995. NWS hydrologic forecasters nationwide could benefit from using drainage basin geologic characteristics in understanding and improving model calibrations and real time forecasts.