O Intervalo de Tempo para uma Máxima Previsiblidade da Precipitação sobre o Semiarido Brasileiro

Cabral, Samuellson Lopes; Campos, José Nilson Beserra; Silveira, Cleiton da Silva; Pereira, José Marcelo Rodrigues

doi:10.1590/0102-778631220130034

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Essa região é compreendida por uma diversidade de regimes pluviométricos, resultado de fatores que podem atuar em conjunto ou isoladamente, definindo as condições do clima na região (SANTOS et al, 2016). Até mesmo o semiárido tem sofrido com fatos climáticos extremos não só associados às secas, mas às cheias também, que devem ser previstos com o intuito de atenuar os impactos negativos causados por esses fenômenos (CABRAL et al, 2016). DOI: 10.1590 Apesar de existirem vários métodos estatísticos para prever a ocorrência de eventos pluviométricos extremos, a distribuição de Gumbel é a que melhor se ajusta a esse tipo de fenômeno (HARTMANN; MOALA; MENDONÇA, 2011) e a mais adequada para estimar as probabilidades das precipitações máximas em diversas durações (HERSHFIELD; KOHLER, 1960), sendo a teoria de valores extremos comumente aplicada à análise estatística de variáveis como a precipitação máxima (BEIJO; MUNIZ; CASTRO NETO, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Tempo de retorno e espacialização das precipitações máximas pelo método dos momentos para o estado da Bahia

Jesus

Nascimento²

2020

Eng. Sanit. Ambient.

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RESUMOO estudo hidrológico das precipitações permite estimar, entre outras características, o tempo de recorrência de determinada chuva -a partir de bases históricas e cálculos probabilísticos -, que assume importância principalmente quando se trata de eventos extremos. Sendo assim, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi estimar a precipitação máxima diária provável para os períodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 e 100 anos segundo a distribuição de Gumbel, com base no método dos momentos, e analisar a espacialização desses eventos para todo o estado da Bahia, Brasil. Para isso, utilizou-se a série histórica das 28 estações pluviométricas do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) de 1961 a 2015, aplicando o método de Gumbel por meio dos parâmetros obtidos das equações dos momentos, sendo os dados testados pelo método de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Para a espacialização dos resultados, foi utilizado o ArcGIS 10.3 por intermédio da interpolação pela Ponderação do Inverso da Distância (IDW, na sigla em inglês) para cada tempo de retorno. As porções litorânea e central do estado têm maior predisposição à ocorrência de eventos extremos. O método dos momentos possibilitou estimar os parâmetros utilizados na equação de Gumbel, sendo possível espacializar e analisar as precipitações máximas para o estado estudado. Palavras-chave: Gumbel; eventos hidrológicos; chuvas extremas. 1 Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul -Porto Alegre (RS), Brasil. ABSTRACTThe hydrological study of precipitations allows estimating, among other characteristics, the time of recurrence of a certain rainfall, from historical bases and probabilistic calculations, which is especially important when it comes to extreme events. Thus, the objective of the present work was to estimate the probable maximum daily precipitation for the return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years according to the Gumbel distribution, using the moments method, and to analyze the spatialization of these events for the entire state of Bahia, Brazil.The study used the historical series of the 28 rainfall stations of INMET from 1961 to 2015, applying the Gumbel method through the parameters obtained from the equations of the moments, being the data tested by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method. For the spatialization of the results, ArcGIS 10.3 was used by means of Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation for each return time. The coastal and central portion of the state is more predisposed to the occurrence of extreme events.The moments methods allowed to estimate the parameters used in the Gumbel equation, making it possible to spatialize and analyze the maximum precipitations for the studied state.

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Section: Introductionunclassified

Tempo de retorno e espacialização das precipitações máximas pelo método dos momentos para o estado da Bahia

Jesus

Nascimento²

2020

Eng. Sanit. Ambient.

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“…Therefore, a more adequate dimensioning requires analyses of risks and valuation of the safety water, thus using preferably high-reliability methods in situations of high risk of insufficient water supply, even when MSSociated with a lower cost and proportion of flooded areas. Semiarid regions present high spatial and temporal rainfall variabilities (Cabral et al, 2016); thus, implementing reservoirs is needed due to the strong impacts of water scarcity, since the water demand in these regions are not met (Hauschild, 2000) Considering the analyses, the methods of estimate of RC that do not consider the T present lower performance and should be avoided; among the methods that are associated to a frequency factor, RRCap_T present lower efficiency; and the methods that include synthetic series are the most indicated. These results are consistent with those presented by Rodrigues (2017), who evaluated these methodologies for dimensioning reservoirs for a sub-basin of the Paracatu River.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dimensioning of reservoirs for semiarid regions using synthetic series

Vieira

Pruski

Souza

2020

Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient.

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The lack of fluviometric data for hydrographic basins affects the estimates of capacity of regularization reservoirs, important to meet water seasonal demands. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of methodologies based on synthetic series (SS) of streamflow for the dimensioning of regularization reservoirs in the Jequitinhonha River Basin, Brazil. The reservoir capacity (RC) was estimated with and without the association to return period, using different long-term mean streamflow rates, SS from the observed data, and estimated data by the streamflow regionalization process developed by the Instituto Mineiro de Gestão das Águas. The results obtained were compared to the RC obtained in regionalization methods of the regularization curve and regionalization of reservoir capacity. The methods that include synthetic series associated to return period presented better performance, with 25% and 15% lower overestimate and underestimate means, respectively, and estimated values closer to those that considered the observed data series. Therefore, the use of methodologies to estimate RC, using SS was adequate for the locations without fluviometric monitoring in the Jequitinhonha River Basin.

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“…Centroids X and Y were used to obtain geographically continuous regions (Rao & Srinivas 2006, Calegario et al 2020. The mean annual total rainfall (p, in mm) was calculated with the aid of the Thiessen Polygon method using datasets from the rain gauges (Cabral et al 2016). This method originates from the Voronoi diagrams (Aurenhammer 1991) assuming that at any point in the watershed, the rainfall value is equal to the weighted mean of the nearest rain gauges, being possible to trace the areas of influence of the stations to characterize the spatial variability of rainfall (Souza et al 2017).…”

Section: Data Selection and Processing Criteriamentioning

confidence: 99%

Minimum streamflow regionalization in a Brazilian watershed under different clustering approaches

Bork

Guedes

Beskow

et al. 2021

An. Acad. Bras. Ciênc.

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Estimating the minimum streamfl ows in rivers is essential to solving problems related to water resources. In gauged watersheds, this task is relatively easy. However, the spatial and temporal insuffi ciency of gauged watercourses in Brazil makes researchers rely on the hydrological regionalization technique. This study's objective was to compare different hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering approaches for the delimitation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, aiming to regionalize the minimum streamfl ow that is equaled or exceeded in 90% of the time (Q 90 ). The methodological development for the regionalization of Q 90 consisted of using regression analysis supported by multivariate statistics. With respect to independent variables for regionalization, this study considered the morphoclimatic attributes of 100 watersheds located in southern Brazil. The results of this study highlighted that:(i) the clustering techniques had the potential to defi ne hydrologically homogeneous regions, in the context of Q 90 in the Rio Grande do Sul State, mostly the Ward algorithm associated with the Manhattan distance; (ii) drainage area, perimeter, centroids X and Y, and mean annual total rainfall aggregated important information that increased the accuracy of the cluster; and (iii) the refi ned mathematical models provided excellent performance and can be used to estimate Q 90 in ungauged rivers.

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O Intervalo de Tempo para uma Máxima Previsiblidade da Precipitação sobre o Semiarido Brasileiro

Cited by 6 publications

References 24 publications

Tempo de retorno e espacialização das precipitações máximas pelo método dos momentos para o estado da Bahia

Tempo de retorno e espacialização das precipitações máximas pelo método dos momentos para o estado da Bahia

Dimensioning of reservoirs for semiarid regions using synthetic series

Minimum streamflow regionalization in a Brazilian watershed under different clustering approaches

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