Abstract. Ion escape is of particular interest for studying the evolution of the
atmosphere on geological timescales. Previously, using Cluster-CODIF data,
we investigated the oxygen ion outflow from the plasma mantle for different
solar wind conditions and geomagnetic activity. We found significant
correlations between solar wind parameters, geomagnetic activity
(Kp index), and the O+ outflow. From
these studies, we suggested that O+ ions observed in the plasma
mantle and cusp have enough energy and velocity to escape the magnetosphere
and be lost into the solar wind or in the distant magnetotail. Thus, this
study aims to investigate where the ions observed in the plasma mantle end
up. In order to answer this question, we numerically calculate the
trajectories of O+ ions using a tracing code to further test this
assumption and determine the fate of the observed ions. Our code consists
of a magnetic field model (Tsyganenko T96) and an ionospheric potential
model (Weimer 2001) in which particles initiated in the plasma mantle
region are launched and traced forward in time. We analysed
131 observations of plasma mantle events in Cluster data between 2001
and 2007, and for each event 200 O+ particles were launched with
an initial thermal and parallel bulk velocity corresponding to the
velocities observed by Cluster. After the tracing, we found that 98 % of
the particles are lost into the solar wind or in the distant tail. Out of
these 98 %, 20 % escape via the dayside magnetosphere.