Obama and 2012: Still a Racial Cost to Pay?

Tien, Charles; Nadeau, Richard; Lewis‐Beck, Michael S.

doi:10.1017/s1049096512000704

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Conspiracy theories about the citizenship and religion of President Obama have also been motivated by racial attitudes (Maxwell, Dowe, and Shields ; Pasek et al ). In the 2012 presidential campaign, racially coded rhetoric was evident by some of the candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 as well as their surrogates (see, e.g., Knuckey and Kim ), and once again racial attitudes were seen to have the potential to cost Obama white support (Tien, Nadeau, and Lewis‐Beck ).…”

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confidence: 99%

Evaluations of Michelle Obama as First Lady: The Role of Racial Resentment

Knuckey

Kim

2016

Pres Stud Q

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The election of Barack Obama in 2008 was initially viewed as signaling a postracial era in American politics. However, since 2008, race and racial attitudes have appeared to pervade American political discourse and shape political attitudes and behavior to an even greater extent. Using data from the American National Election Studies, this article examines the extent to which white racial attitudes have shaped evaluations of perhaps the most visible African American in politics today after the president: the First Lady, Michelle Obama. Findings show that racial resentment played a large role in evaluations of Michelle Obama, even after controlling for other explanatory variables, which include partisanship, ideology, and affect toward Barack Obama.

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confidence: 99%

Evaluations of Michelle Obama as First Lady: The Role of Racial Resentment

Knuckey

Kim

2016

Pres Stud Q

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“…Finally, it incorporates indirectly, via the presidential popularity variable, the negative cost of race that President Obama appears destined to pay. We discuss this additional challenge of racial voting in a separate article in this issue (Tien, Nadeau, and Lewis-Beck 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times

Lewis‐Beck

Tien

2012

APSC

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Election forecasters face increasing turbulence in their relevant environments, making predictions more uncertain, or at least apparently so. For US presidential contests, economic performance and candidate profiles are central variables in most statistical models. These variables have exhibited large swings recently. Before the 2008 US presidential election, the economy fell into a Great Recession, and the candidate of one of the two major parties was, for the first time, a black man. These unprecedented conditions were trumpeted in the media, with heightened frenzy over the “horse race” question of who was going to win the White House. In the press, many forecasts appeared, taking different forms—polls, models, markets, pundits, to name some—offering a broader range of possible outcomes than ever before. Just looking at the predictions of the statistical modelers alone, we find that for 2008 many teams offered estimates of the incumbent (Republican) vote, ranging over an 11 percentage point spread. At one extreme, Lockerbie (2008) forecast 41.8% while at the other extreme Campbell (2008) forecast 52.7%. Of course, other methodologists offered their own, different, forecasts. The media, in its various forms, added to the hyperbole, aggressively reporting different forecasts on an almost daily basis.

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“…His status as a role model fuels a fast-growing literature on "Obama effects." The Obama effects to which we refer differ from the ones described by Elder (2007), which are analogous to the "Bradley" and "Wilder" effects and explore the degree to which Obama's race cost him support among white voters (see also Kinder and Dale-Riddle 2012;Lewis-Beck and Tien 2008;Lewis-Beck, Tien, and Nadau 2010;Tien, Nadeau, and Lewis-Beck 2012). Rather, this literature posits that Obama's exploits on the campaign trail, in the Oval Office, and now, as a former President of the United States (POTUS), have influenced the attitudes and activities of citizens (for reviews, see Block and Lewis 2018;Parker 2016).…”

Section: Michelle Obama's Impact On Racial Attitudesmentioning

confidence: 97%

Role-Model-In-Chief: Understanding a Michelle Obama Effect

Haynes

Block

2019

Pol & Gen

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Because of the national conversation about her status as a role model, the former First Lady of the United States (FLOTUS) presents an opportunity to analyze an Obama effectparticularly, the idea that Michelle Obama's prominence as a political figure can influence, among other things, citizens' impressions of black women in America. Using evidence from the 2011 Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation/Washington Post survey, we demonstrate that Michelle Obama's status as a role model operates as a "moderated mediator": it transmits the effect of the former FLOTUS' media activities to respondents' racial attitudes, and the degree to which role model status functions as a mediating variable differs by race (and, to a lesser degree, by gender). Thus, our research provides both a theoretical and an empirical contribution to the Obama-effect literature.

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Obama and 2012: Still a Racial Cost to Pay?

Cited by 18 publications

References 20 publications

Evaluations of Michelle Obama as First Lady: The Role of Racial Resentment

Evaluations of Michelle Obama as First Lady: The Role of Racial Resentment

Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times

Role-Model-In-Chief: Understanding a Michelle Obama Effect

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