Obesity Prediction in Young Adults from the Jerusalem Perinatal Study: Contribution of Polygenic Risk and Early Life Exposures

Abstract

We assessed whether adding early life exposures to a model based on polygenic risk score (PRS) improves prediction of obesity risk. We used a birth cohort with data at birth and BMI and waist circumference (WC) measured at age 32. The PRS was composed of SNPs identified in GWAS for BMI. Linear and logistic models were used to explore associations with obesity-related phenotypes. Improvement in prediction was assessed using measures of model discrimination (AUC), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). One SD change in PRS was associated with a significant increase in BMI and WC. These associations were slightly attenuated (13.7%-14.2%) with the addition of early life exposures to the model. Also, higher maternal pre-pregnancy BMI was associated with increase in offspring BMI and WC (p<0.001). For prediction obesity (BMI ≥ 30), the addition of early life exposures to the PRS model significantly increase the AUC from 0.69 to 0.73. At an obesity risk threshold of 15%, the addition of early life exposures to the PRS model provided a significant improvement in reclassification of obesity (NRI, 0.147; 95% CI 0.068-0.225). We conclude that inclusion of early life exposures to a model based on PRS improves obesity risk prediction in an Israeli population-sample.