Objective climatology and classification of the Mediterranean cyclones based on the ERA5 data set and the use of the results for the definition of seasons

Abstract

An objective cyclone detection and tracking analysis is performed for the Mediterranean region with the use of 6-hourly (00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC) 1° × 1° mean sea-level pressure data obtained from the ERA5 database for the period 1950–2018. At first, the main cyclogenesis and high-density areas of cyclones are identified. Next, principal component analysis and cluster analysis are performed, classifying the detected cyclone trajectories into 12 clusters. In the following step, the application of the above methodology, this time on the intra-annual variations of the 12 cyclone clusters’ frequencies leads to the objective definition of four seasons, which generally correspond to the conventional ones, but they present differences in their limits and duration. The results of this method are also compared with the ones of two other methods for defining the seasons, which are based (i) on the long-term mean intra-annual variations of various meteorological parameters and (ii) on the intra-annual variations of the frequencies of defined weather types, revealing larger winter and shorter spring seasons. Finally, a composition of all three aforementioned approaches is attempted, leading to the following seasons: “winter” (November 16–March 25) which lasts more than 4 months, “spring” (March 26–June 11) with a duration of approximately 2.5 months, “summer” (June 12–September 12) which lasts about 3 months, and “autumn” (September 13–November 15) with a duration of about 2 months. The long-term changes of the above seasons’ characteristics are also examined.

The effects of climate warming on large-scale atmospheric systems of the Northern Hemisphere

“…In the Eastern Mediterranean, there is a significant positive trend during winter and autumn at the 500 hPa level, while a significant negative trend is observed during spring and summer at sea level. Similar findings have been reported by Aragão and Porcu (2022) and Kotsias et al (2023). In the Western Mediterranean, a significant positive trend is observed at the 500 hPa level during spring, while a significant negative trend is observed at sea level during summer.…”