Tokamak turbulence, driven by the ion-temperature gradient and occurring in
the presence of flow shear, is investigated by means of local, ion-scale,
electrostatic gyrokinetic simulations (with both kinetic ions and electrons) of
the conditions in the outer core of the Mega-Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST). A
parameter scan in the local values of the ion-temperature gradient and flow
shear is performed. It is demonstrated that the experimentally observed state
is near the stability threshold and that this stability threshold is nonlinear:
sheared turbulence is subcritical, i.e. the system is formally stable to small
perturbations, but, given a large enough initial perturbation, it transitions
to a turbulent state. A scenario for such a transition is proposed and
supported by numerical results: close to threshold, the nonlinear saturated
state and the associated anomalous heat transport are dominated by long-lived
coherent structures, which drift across the domain, have finite amplitudes, but
are not volume filling; as the system is taken away from the threshold into the
more unstable regime, the number of these structures increases until they
overlap and a more conventional chaotic state emerges. Whereas this appears to
represent a new scenario for transition to turbulence in tokamak plasmas, it is
reminiscent of the behaviour of other subcritically turbulent systems, e.g.
pipe flows and Keplerian magnetorotational accretion flows.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, accepted to Journal of Plasma Physic