Observational and Model Evidence for an Important Role for Volcanic Forcing Driving Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Over the Last 600 Years

Waite, A. J.; Klavans, Jeremy M.; Clement, A. C.; Murphy, Lisa N.; Liebetrau, Volker; Eisenhauer, Anton; Weger, Ralf J.; Swart, Peter K.

doi:10.1029/2020gl089428

Cited by 10 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…2 ). Recent work by Waite et al ( 52 ) comes to similar conclusions based on a comparison of sclerosponge proxy data and CMIP5 Last Millennium simulations.…”

Section: Internal Climate Oscillationssupporting

confidence: 61%

Beyond the hockey stick: Climate lessons from the Common Era

Mann

2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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More than two decades ago, my coauthors, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes, and I published the now iconic “hockey stick” curve. It was a simple graph, derived from large-scale networks of diverse climate proxy (“multiproxy”) data such as tree rings, ice cores, corals, and lake sediments, that captured the unprecedented nature of the warming taking place today. It became a focal point in the debate over human-caused climate change and what to do about it. Yet, the apparent simplicity of the hockey stick curve betrays the dynamicism and complexity of the climate history of past centuries and how it can inform our understanding of human-caused climate change and its impacts. In this article, I discuss the lessons we can learn from studying paleoclimate records and climate model simulations of the “Common Era,” the period of the past two millennia during which the “signal” of human-caused warming has risen dramatically from the background of natural variability.

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“…2 ). Recent work by Waite et al ( 52 ) comes to similar conclusions based on a comparison of sclerosponge proxy data and CMIP5 Last Millennium simulations.…”

Section: Internal Climate Oscillationssupporting

confidence: 61%

Beyond the hockey stick: Climate lessons from the Common Era

Mann

2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Recent work by Waite et al. (2020) comparing sclerosponge proxy data and CMIP5 Last Millennium simulations also found that AMO‐like oscillations are substantially volcanic forcing‐driven.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

On the Estimation of Internal Climate Variability During the Preindustrial Past Millennium

Mann

Steinman

Brouillette

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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We use an ensemble of simulations of a coupled model (NCAR Community Earth System Model) driven by natural radiative forcing estimates over the pre‐industrial past millennium to test the efficacy of methods designed to remove forced variability from proxy‐based climate reconstructions and estimate residual internal variability (e.g., a putative “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation”). Within the framework of these experiments, the forced component of surface temperature change can be estimated accurately from the ensemble mean, and the internal variability of each of the independent realizations can be accurately assessed by subtracting off that estimate. We show in this case, where the true internal variability is known, that regression‐based methods of removing the forced component from proxy reconstructions will, in the presence of uncertainties in the underlying natural radiative forcing, fail to yield accurate estimates thereof, incorrectly attributing unresolved forced features (and multidecadal spectral peaks associated with them) to internal variability.

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“…Similarly, a speleothem δ 18 O record from Cuba (Fensterer et al., 2012) exhibits clear decadal‐scale variability but again lacks distinctive multidecadal to centennial‐scale variability (Figures 4e and 5e). Puerto Rico coral SSTs increase over the last 250 years, but the Puerto Rican and Cuban speleothem precipitation reconstructions do not show such a warming trend, suggesting that absolute regional SSTs are not the only control on precipitation over this time interval, an assertion further supported by a three century‐long increase in both tropical and larger‐North Atlantic reconstructed SSTs (Figures 4f and 4g; Lapointe et al., 2020; Waite et al., 2020) that are not matched by any of the regional speleothem precipitation records (Figures 4a–4c and 4e).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…In this respect, evidence of a dominant influence of natural forcing, that is, solar activity and energetic volcanic eruptions, on Caribbean multidecadal to centennial SSTs and hydroclimate changes has been found by a number of studies (Black et al, 1999;Burn & Palmer, 2014;Haase-Schramm et al, 2003;Hodell et al, 2001;Pollock et al, 2016;Ridley et al, 2015;Smirnov et al, 2017;Waite et al, 2020;Warken et al, 2021;Winter et al, 2015;Yang et al, 2024). For example, a reconstruction of Mesoamerican precipitation based on a speleothem record from the Yucatán Peninsula revealed a strong association between the occurrence of multidecadal drying phases during the past three centuries and clusters of strong tropical volcanic eruptions (Winter et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northeastern Caribbean Rainfall Variability Linked to Solar and Volcanic Forcing

Vieten,

Warken,

Zanchettin

et al. 2024

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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We present a 500‐year precipitation‐sensitive record based on co‐varying speleothem δ18O values and Mg/Ca ratios from Larga cave in Puerto Rico. This multi‐proxy record shows that the evolution of rainfall in the northeastern Caribbean was characterized by alternating centennial dry and wet phases corresponding to reduced versus enhanced convective activity. These phases occurred synchronous with relatively cool and warm tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs), respectively. While the observed pattern suggests a close link of northeastern Caribbean rainfall to the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, a regional comparison reveals intermittent regional heterogeneity especially on decadal timescales, which may be related to a superimposing influence of the Pacific and Atlantic basins. Furthermore, the speleothem‐based hydroclimate reconstruction indicates a significant volcanic impact during the past two centuries, and further reveals a potential solar signal in the preceding three centuries. We posit that the forcing likely shifted from solar to volcanic during the eighteenth century in being an important source of multidecadal to centennial Caribbean rainfall variability. The link between convective rainfall and natural forcing may be explained through a modulation of SST variations in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

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Observational and Model Evidence for an Important Role for Volcanic Forcing Driving Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Over the Last 600 Years

Cited by 10 publications

References 77 publications

Beyond the hockey stick: Climate lessons from the Common Era

Beyond the hockey stick: Climate lessons from the Common Era

On the Estimation of Internal Climate Variability During the Preindustrial Past Millennium

Northeastern Caribbean Rainfall Variability Linked to Solar and Volcanic Forcing

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