Observational evidence of the influence of Pacific SSTs on winter precipitation and spring stream discharge in Idaho

Harshburger, Brian J.; Ye, Hengchun; Dzialoski, John

doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(02)00072-0

Cited by 47 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…These biases result from the changes in regional flood potential associated with slowly varying climate regimes. Harshburger et al (2002) examined the relation between climate and streamflow records in Idaho. They reported that winter precipitation north of 45°N is negatively correlated with winter PDO; conditions are wet with La Niña/negative PDO and dry with El Niño/positive PDO.…”

Section: Streamflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Hydroclimatology of Western Canada—Review and Prospects

Whitfield¹,

Moore²,

Fleming³

et al. 2010

Canadian Water Resources Journal

113

127

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Abstract:The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climate system feature that influences the surface climate and hydrology of western North America. In this paper, we review the literature describing the PDO and demonstrate its effects on temperature, precipitation, snowfall, glacier mass balance, and streamflow with a focus on western Canada, and particularly British Columbia. We review how the PDO index was developed and discuss other North Pacific climate patterns that resemble the PDO. The impacts of PDO on glacier mass balance and streamflow from retrospective studies are also reviewed and illustrated with specific examples from BC. We assess the current state of knowledge regarding the PDO and provide a critical assessment of its use in hydroclimatology. This information should provide insight on the sensitivity of projects to climatic variability.

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Section: Streamflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Hydroclimatology of Western Canada—Review and Prospects

Whitfield¹,

Moore²,

Fleming³

et al. 2010

Canadian Water Resources Journal

113

127

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“…Clark et al (2000) also used various Indian Ocean indices at long lead times to develop the relationships for rainfall predictions. Nicholls (1983) found relationships between ISMR and 16-month leading SST near Indonesia that can show the long lead time relationships and the influences of large-scale atmospheric circulation at distance from the source (Saravanan and Chang 2000, Harshburger et al 2002, Tereshchenko et al 2002. Therefore, in this study, the correlation maps are adopted using the large-scale atmospheric variables, e.g.…”

Section: Correlations With Large-scale Atmospheric Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, significant links are found over distant regions, e.g. Sumatra and Java (Indonesia), and northeast India, which shows the remote influence of atmospheric circulation (Harshburger et al 2002, Tereshchenko et al 2002. Table 2 summarizes the identified predictors of largescale atmospheric variables.…”

Section: Identifying Predictors and Combination Casesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables

Singhrattna

Babel

Perret

2012

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The development of statistical relationships between local hydroclimates and large-scale atmospheric variables enhances the understanding of hydroclimate variability. The rainfall in the study basin (the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand) is influenced by the Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean atmospheric circulation. Using correlation analysis and cross-validated multiple regression, the large-scale atmospheric variables, such as temperature, pressure and wind, over given regions are identified. The forecasting models using atmospheric predictors show the capability of long-lead forecasting. The modified k-nearest neighbour (k-nn) model, which is developed using the identified predictors to forecast rainfall, and evaluated by likelihood function, shows a long-lead forecast of monsoon rainfall at 7-9 months. The decreasing performance in forecasting dry-season rainfall is found for both short and long lead times. The developed model also presents better performance in forecasting pre-monsoon season rainfall in dry years compared to wet years, and vice versa for monsoon season rainfall.Key words rainfall; hydroclimate variability; ENSO; large-scale atmospheric variables; long-lead forecasting; statistical approach; modified k-nn model; cross-validated multiple regression; Chao Phraya River Basin; Ping River Basin; Thailand Variabilité hydroclimatique et prévision à long terme des précipitations en Thaïlande à l'aide de variables atmosphériques de grande échelle Résumé L'établissement de relations statistiques entre variables pluviométriques locales et variables atmosphériques de grande échelle permet une meilleure compréhension de la variabilité hydroclimatique. Les précipitations dans le bassin d'étude (le bassin supérieur de la Rivière Chao Phraya, Thaïlande) sont influencées par la circulation atmosphérique dans l'Océan Indien et dans l'Océan Pacifique tropical. Par l'analyse de corréla-tions et régressions multiples en validation croisée, les prédicteurs de variables atmosphériques de grande échelle, à savoir température, pression et vent, sont identifiés sur des régions cibles, et montrent une bonne capacité de prévision à long terme. Le modèle modifié des k-plus proches voisins (k-nn), développé par les prédicteurs identifiés pour prévoir les pluies, et évalué par fonction de probabilité, montre une prévisibilité à long terme (7-9 mois) des pluies de mousson. La moindre performance dans la prévision des pluies de saison sèche est prouvée pour la prévision à court et à long terme. Le modèle développé présente également une meilleure performance pour les pluies de pré-mousson en année sèche, par rapport à une année humide, et inversement pour les pluies de mousson.Mots clefs précipitations; variabilité hydroclimatique; ENSO; variables atmosphériques de grande échelle; prévision à long terme; approche statistique; modèle k-nn modifié; régression multiple à validation croisée; bassin du Fleuve Chao Phraya; bassin du Fleuve Ping; T haïlande

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“…A common method to determine various ENSO events is outlined in Trenberth (1997), and states that when the 5 mo moving average of Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeds + 0.4 (-0.4) for 6 consecutive months, an El Niño (La Niña) is said to occur. The strongest lagged relationship between Niño 3.4 SSTs and winter precipitation in the western United States occurs from September to November (Harshburger et al 2002). Therefore, ENSO events are classified by using the September-November averaged Niño 3.4 anomalies preceding the winter period.…”

Section: Teleconnectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regionalization and trends in winter precipitation in the northwestern USA

Miller¹,

Goodrich²

2007

Clim. Res.

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Recent modeling studies have predicted that while temperature is expected to increase over the next few decades in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), model predictions of winter season precipitation are highly variable. Implications of potential climate change were explored by regionalizing PNW climate. Using rotated Principal Components Analysis (PCA), sub-regions within the PNW were developed for winter season precipitation from 1895-2003. Analyses include synoptic discussions based on trends of the time series of the component scores as well as an examination of the sensitivity to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for each sub-region. Four sub-regions during the winter season were created, based on temporal variability of precipitation. While previous studies suggest that there is regional coherence in PNW precipitation, analysis of the time series of the component scores for each sub-region suggests otherwise. Several sub-regions show widely diverging trends in winter season precipitation over the past 30 yr, a period that also coincides with significant warming across the PNW. Differences in the sign and strength of correlations between ENSO and the PDO with winter season precipitation occur between the subregions, which further suggests a lack of coherence in the PNW.

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Observational evidence of the influence of Pacific SSTs on winter precipitation and spring stream discharge in Idaho

Cited by 47 publications

References 19 publications

Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Hydroclimatology of Western Canada—Review and Prospects

Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Hydroclimatology of Western Canada—Review and Prospects

Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables

Regionalization and trends in winter precipitation in the northwestern USA

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