Observational study of Super Typhoon <i>Saola</i> in 2023 when it was close to Hong Kong

Chan, P. W.; Choy, C. W.; Chiu, Y. Y.; He, Junyi

doi:10.1002/wea.4563

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 21 publications

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“…It brought high winds to Hong Kong. Detailed documentation of the observation and forecasting of Saola can be found in [52][53][54][55]. The track and intensity of Saola overlaid on the SST plot are given in Figure 10a, while the sea temperature and salinity profiles along the track of Saola are given in Figures 10b and 10c, respectively.…”

Section: Super Typhoon Saola In September 2023mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Upper-Ocean Sea Temperatures and Salinity on the Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea: An Observational Study

Chan,

Lam,

Hui

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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With increasing air and sea temperatures, the thermodynamic environments over the oceans are becoming more favourable for the development of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) with rapid intensification (RI). The South China coastal region consists of highly densely populated cities, especially over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. Intense TCs maintaining their strength or the RI of TCs close to the coastal region can present substantial forecasting challenges and have significant potential impacts on the coastal population. This study investigates the effect of sea-surface and sub-surface temperatures and salinity on the intensification of five TCs, namely Super Typhoon Hato in 2017, Super Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, and Typhoon Talim, Super Typhoon Saola, and Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023, which have significantly affected the South China coastal region and triggered high TC warning signals in Hong Kong in the past few years. This analysis utilised the Hong Kong Observatory’s TC best-track and intensity data, along with sea temperature and salinity profiles generated using the China Ocean ReAnalysis version 2 (CORA2) product from the National Marine Data and Information Service of China. It was found that high sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 30 °C or above for a depth of about 20 m, low sea-surface salinity (SSS) levels of 33.8 psu or below for a depth of at least 20 m, and strong salinity stratification of at least 0.6 psu per 100 m depth might offer useful hints for predicting the RI of TCs over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea (SCS) in operational forecasting, while noting other contributing environmental factors and synoptic flow patterns conducive to RI. This study represents the first documentation of sub-surface salinity’s impact on some intense TCs traversing the SCS during 2017–2023 based on an observational study. Our aim is to supplement operational techniques for forecasting RI with some quantitative guidance based on upper-level ocean observations of temperatures and salinity, on top of well-known but more rapidly changing dynamical factors like low-level convergence, weak vertical wind shear, and upper-level divergent outflow, as forecasted with numerical weather prediction models. This study will also encourage further research to refine the analysis of quantitative contributions from different RI factors and the identification of essential features for developing AI models as one way to improve the forecasting of TC RI before the TC makes landfall near the PRD, with due consideration given to the effect of freshwater river discharge from the Pearl River.

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Section: Super Typhoon Saola In September 2023mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Upper-Ocean Sea Temperatures and Salinity on the Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea: An Observational Study

Chan,

Lam,

Hui

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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Forecasting Super Typhoon Saola and its effects on Hong Kong

Chan,

He,

Lui

2024

Weather

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Hong Kong was severely impacted by Super Typhoon Saola (2309), necessitating the issuance of the highest tropical cyclone warning signal. Saola skirted past the south‐southwest of Hong Kong, bringing hurricane force winds and significant storm surge. Saola had its closest approach to Hong Kong on 1 September 2023, posing a unique challenge in forecasting and early warning for the start of the new school term, where higher impact to traffic and public safety was anticipated. This paper covers the challenges on the forecasting aspect of the super typhoon.

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Case studies of the winds in the urban area of Hong Kong – Microclimate station observations and high resolution numerical simulations

Lo,

Chan,

Lai

et al. 2024

Heliyon

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Observational study of Super Typhoon Saola in 2023 when it was close to Hong Kong

Cited by 3 publications

References 21 publications

The Effects of Upper-Ocean Sea Temperatures and Salinity on the Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea: An Observational Study

The Effects of Upper-Ocean Sea Temperatures and Salinity on the Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea: An Observational Study

Forecasting Super Typhoon Saola and its effects on Hong Kong

Case studies of the winds in the urban area of Hong Kong – Microclimate station observations and high resolution numerical simulations

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