Observed and Perceived Climate Change and Variability and Small Holder Farmers’ Vulnerability: The Case of Janamora District, Northwestern Ethiopia

Abstract

In the context of observed climate change and variability and their impact on livelihoods; This study intended to assess farmers' vulnerability to climate change and variability in Janamora district, northwestern Ethiopia. Primary data for the study was collected through questionnaire from 138 respondents selected through multi-stage sampling technique based on agro-ecology. Secondary data was collected from meteorological stations. Mann-Kendall and Chi-square tests were employed to test observed and perceived climate change and variability respectively. While LVI and LVI-IPCC methods were used to assess farmers' vulnerability to climate change and variability using SPSS version 23. The results revealed significant increasing trend in annual average temperature in all stations except Debark and insignificant trend in annual rainfall as well as a higher rainfall variability. Similarly, 69.6 and 80.4% of the interviewed farmers were aware of an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall respectively. Moreover, χ 2 test showed that a significant variation (significant at P<0.05) in perception to temperature and rainfall between agro-ecology. The overall vulnerability result in the case of LVI was 0.425, 0.454 and 0.471 for Dega, Woyna Dega and Kolla agro-ecological zones respectively. Similar result was found using the LVI-IPCC approach which was 0.035, 0.041 and 0.049 for Dega, Woyna Dega and Kolla agro-ecological zones respectively. Both LVI and LVI-IPCC results revealed that Kolla was the most vulnerable and Dega was the least vulnerable to climate change and variability. The study suggested improving the literacy level and integrating rural development schemes to increase adaptive capacity. Similarly, further studies should be conducted in the future.

Smallholder Farmers' Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability: Evidence from Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

“…The researchers attributed this to mountainous terrain and the degradation of natural resources in highland areas, making it difficult for households to access enough water throughout the year. Previous studies by Chala et al (2016) and Marelign et al (2019), also confirm water sources are less accessible, particularly in lowland and highland agroecological zones. Overall, the findings highlight the vulnerability of households in the study area to climate change impacts on water resources, with highland areas being the most at risk.…”

“…Since the subcomponents are measured on various scales, it was required to first standardize each as an index. This conversion formula differs from the one used to calculate the life expectancy index, which is the ratio of the difference between the actual life expectancy and a minimum and range of defined maximum and minimum life expectancies (Marelign et al, 2019;Mekasha et al, 2014;Hahn et al, 2009). On each indicator, households were asked to provide an effect value based on continuous, nominal, or ordinal scales, and then the data were normalized using Eq.…”

“…Then the overall LVI Ai the Livelihood Vulnerability Index for agroecology 'A', equals the weighted average of the 3 major components. The weights of each major component, WMi, are determined by the number of sub-components that make up each major component and are included to ensure that all sub-components contribute equally to the overall LVI (Marelign et al, 2019;Hahn et al, 2009, IPCC, 2001.…”

“…In this study, we scaled the LVI-IPCC from -1 (least vulnerable) to 1 (most vulnerable) (Marelign et al, 2019;Mekasha et al, 2014;Hahn et al, 2009, IPCC, 2001…”

“…Each sub-component contributes equally to the total index using a balanced weighted average technique (IPCC, 2001;Khan et al, 2021;Hahn, 2009). The LVI formula is adapted from the life expectancy index, calculating the ratio of actual life expectancy to specified maximum and minimum life expectancies (Marelign et al, 2019;Makondo et al, 2014). The vulnerability status of smallholder farmers to climate change is detailed in Appendices Table A1, determined through a systematic process of standardization, weighing, subcomponent division, and regrouping of the main components -exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.…”