Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas

Johnston, Alison; Ausden, Malcolm; Dodd, Andrew; Bradbury, Richard B.; Chamberlain, Dan; Jiguet, Frédéric; Thomas, Chris D.; Cook, Aonghais S.C.P.; Newson, Stuart E.; Ockendon, Nancy; Rehfisch, Mark M.; Roos, Staffan; Thaxter, Chris B.; Brown, Andy; Crick, Humphrey Q. P.; Douse, Andy; McCall, Rob A.; Pontier, H.; Stroud, David A.; Cadiou, Bernard; Crowe, Olivia; Deceuninck, Bernard; Hornman, Menno; Pearce‐Higgins, James W.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2035

Cited by 163 publications

(123 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Kharouba and Kerr 2010; Johnston et al. 2013). However, an essential finding in our results is that the landscapes with conservation areas have also maintained the higher level of species richness compared to unprotected areas during the recent period of climate warming.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Protected areas alleviate climate change effects on northern bird species of conservation concern

Virkkala

Pöyry

Heikkinen

et al. 2014

Ecology and Evolution

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Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, posing increasing pressures on species to adapt in situ or shift their ranges. A protected area network is one of the main instruments to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change. Importantly, protected area networks might be expected to enhance the resilience of regional populations of species of conservation concern, resulting in slower species loss in landscapes with a significant amount of protected habitat compared to unprotected landscapes. Based on national bird atlases compiled in 1974–1989 and 2006–2010, this study examines the recent range shifts in 90 forest, mire, marshland, and Arctic mountain heath bird species of conservation concern in Finland, as well as the changes in their species richness in protected versus unprotected areas. The trends emerging from the atlas data comparisons were also related to the earlier study dealing with predictions of distributional changes for these species for the time slice of 2051–2080, developed using bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). Our results suggest that the observed changes in bird distributions are in the same direction as the BEM-based predictions, resulting in a decrease in species richness of mire and Arctic mountain heath species and an increase in marshland species. The patterns of changes in species richness between the two time slices are in general parallel in protected and unprotected areas. However, importantly, protected areas maintained a higher level of species richness than unprotected areas. This finding provides support for the significance and resilience provision of protected area networks in preserving species of conservation concern under climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Protected areas alleviate climate change effects on northern bird species of conservation concern

Virkkala

Pöyry

Heikkinen

et al. 2014

Ecology and Evolution

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“…One approach is to increase connectivity Elmqvist et al, 2003). Developing spatially networked connectivity between existing protected areas enables species to move more readily in response to changing environmental conditions (Johnston et al, 2013). This spatial aspect allows species and communities to survive perturbations by avoiding them or resisting them, and responding afterwards by recolonizing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A riparian conservation network for ecological resilience

Fremier

Kiparsky

Gmur

et al. 2015

Biological Conservation

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a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f oA crucial gap exists between the static nature of the United States' existing protected areas and the dynamic impacts of 21st century stressors, such as habitat loss and fragmentation and climate change. Connectivity is a valuable element for bridging that gap and building the ecological resilience of existing protected areas. However, creating terrestrial connectivity by designing individual migration corridors across fragmented landscapes is arguably untenable at a national scale. We explore the potential for use of riverine corridors in a Riparian Connectivity Network (RCN) as a potential contributor to a more resilient network of protected areas. There is ample scientific support for the conservation value of riparian areas, including their habitat, their potential to connect environments, and their ecosystem services. Our spatial analysis suggests that they could connect protected areas and have a higher rate of conservation management than terrestrial lands. Our results illustrate that the spatial backbone for an RCN is already in place, and existing policies favor riparian area protection. Furthermore, existing legal and regulatory goals may be better served if governance requirements and incentives are aligned with conservation efforts focused on riparian connectivity, as part of a larger landscape connectivity strategy. While much research on the effectiveness of riparian corridors remains to be done, the RCN concept provides a way to improve connectivity among currently protected areas. With focused attention, increased institutional collaboration, and improved incentives, these pieces could coalesce into a network of areas for biological conservation.

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“…A weak positive relationship between species richness and coverage by protected areas has been shown in the UK, but the explanatory power of the protected landspecies richness relationship was low, especially for wintering distributions (Jackson et al 2009). Nevertheless, using spatial climate-abundance models, Johnston et al (2014) showed that most SPA in the UK can be projected to retain species in sufficient abundances and to be important in future conservation management.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our results demonstrate that it is very important to consider wintering sites in future conservation plans and actions in order to provide protection to the increasing numbers of wintering waterbirds. The importance of a well-designed network of protected areas for future species protection in the light of a changing climate emphasizes the study of Johnston et al (2014). In fact, the management and conservation planning of the current Czech network of protected areas have not been classified according to the requirements of wintering waterbirds-rather sites with valuable habitats that represent refuges for wetland plant and animal communities have been designated (Chytil et al 1999).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term trends, total numbers and species richness of increasing waterbird populations at sites on the edge of their winter range: cold-weather refuge sites are more important than protected sites

et al. 2015

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Recent climate changes are most likely the major determining factor for the increasing importance of Central Europe for wintering waterbirds, given that most of the region is located on the edge of these species' wintering ranges. A few recent large-scale studies have demonstrated changes in species distribution at the flyway level, but detailed studies at the site level are still scarce. Using midJanuary wintering waterbird counts from 532 sites taken over a 48-year period (1966-2013), we have assessed the role of 'cold-weather refuges', i.e. sites where the selective pressures of winter harshness are reduced (e.g. sites with ample sources of running water, urban areas, warmer sites, sites with a relatively higher proportion of wetlands), and a site's protection status on species richness, total numbers and trends at the site level. We found prevailing increasing trends in total numbers and species richness at the site level, which are in line with the area's increasing importance as wintering grounds. However, some sites have likely been affected by density-dependent regulation as mean total numbers per site have not increased since the 1990s. Density dependence may also be a reflection of an increasing number of sites with running water in traditionally cold areas. Factors affecting trends in species richness at the site level are however less predictable. We demonstrate the great importance of cold-weather refuges, where running water has an effect on total numbers, species richness and trend affect total numbers, warmer areas and higher proportions of wetlands in the surroundings affect total numbers and species richness and urban areas affect total numbers. However, we found that legislative safeguards for sites, such as the establishment of Nature Reserves and Special Protection Areas, have no significant effects. Our findings therefore suggest that the effect of temperature and presence of cold-weather refuges (as defined here) are more relevant to this observed increasing trend of wintering waterbirds on the edge of wintering ranges than a reduction in human developmental pressures.

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Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas

Cited by 163 publications

References 40 publications

Protected areas alleviate climate change effects on northern bird species of conservation concern

Protected areas alleviate climate change effects on northern bird species of conservation concern

A riparian conservation network for ecological resilience

Long-term trends, total numbers and species richness of increasing waterbird populations at sites on the edge of their winter range: cold-weather refuge sites are more important than protected sites

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