Observed and projected precipitation variability in Athens over a 2.5 century period

Abstract

The observed and projected precipitation variability in Athens is assessed for a 2.5 century period. The observed variability is examined using the 150-year historical record of the National Observatory of Athens, while future variability using an ensemble of regional climate models. A good agreement between observations and the model ensemble was found for annual and seasonal precipitation. The model ensemble overestimated the number of rainy days and precipitation amount corresponding to light precipitation and underestimated them corresponding to moderate-heavy precipitation. A 35% decrease in total annual precipitation coupled with an increase in extreme precipitation was projected by the model ensemble up to 2100.

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