Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades

Abstract

Long-term changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia (NE) over the last five decades are estimated. Different types of precipitation are separated according to their genesis using routine meteorological observations of precipitation, weather conditions, and morphological cloud types for the period 1966-2016. From an initial 538 stations, the main analysis is performed for 326 stations that have no gaps and meet criteria regarding the artificial discontinuity absence in the data. A moderate increase in total precipitation over the analyzed period is accompanied by a relatively strong growth of convective precipitation and a concurrent decrease in stratiform precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation totals, precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation sums depict major changes in summer, while the relative contribution of the two precipitation types to the total precipitation (including the contribution of heavy rain events) show the strongest trends in transition seasons. The contribution of heavy convective showers to the total precipitation increases with the statistically significant trend of 1%-2% per decade in vast NE regions, reaching 5% per decade at a number of stations. The largest increase is found over the southern Far East region, mostly because of positive changes in convective precipitation intensity with a linear trend of more than 1 mm/day/ decade, implying a 13.8% increase per 1°C warming. In general, stratiform precipitation decreases over the majority of NE regions in all seasons except for winter. This decrease happens at slower rates in comparison to the convective precipitation changes. The overall changes in the character of precipitation over the majority of NE regions are characterized by a redistribution of precipitation types toward more heavy showers.

Understanding hydrological processes at a remote mountainous continuous permafrost watershed in a changing environment

“…A recently published paper (Chernokulsky et al, 2019) presents data on changes in precipitation regime and intensity of liquid precipitation in Eurasia: a small, mostly insignificant increase in total precipitation is accompanied by a significant increase in the intensity of rainfall and an increase in the contribution of heavy rain in all regions of Russia, which directly contributes to the formation of dangerous hydrological phenomena such as flash floods. Thus, it is recognized that we need to develop new methods of calculation hydrological response under the conditions of climate change and anthropogenic impact (Maghsood et al, 2019).…”

Reconstruction of the hazardous flood of 2014 in Magadan city based on coupled hydrometeorological modelling

“…Climate change causes significant transformation of the hydrological cycle. In many regions of Russia, the increase in the proportion and intensity of rainfall [1] is observed leading to the growth of number and magnitude of floods. Magadan region is situated in the North-East of Russia and is one of the mostly flood-prone areas of the country.…”

Sub-Daily Rainfall Intensity Extremes: Evaluating Suitable Indices at Australian Arid and Wet Tropical Observing Sites

“…Owing to the diversity of contexts in which it is important, rainfall intensity has been analysed and reported using a corresponding diversity of data and methods, which can yield different characterisations of the same rainfall records. In studies of the secular changes in climate, for instance, the simple daily intensity index (SDII; [12,13]) finds wide application. This index is simply the total rainfall depth over a period such as a month or a year, divided by the number of rain days in that period; it is therefore the mean wet day rainfall.…”