Observed climatic changes in West Virginia and opportunities for agriculture

Kellner

Petersen

2022

IJERPH

Self Cite

Land-use practices can greatly impact water quality. Escherichia (E.) coli and Enterococcus are accepted water quality indicators. However, surprisingly little research has been conducted comparing both organisms’ population density relationships to land use practices and water quality. Stream water grab samples were collected monthly (n = 9 months) from 22 stream monitoring sites draining varying land use practice types in a representative mixed-land-use watershed of the northeastern United States. E. coli and enterococci colony forming units (CFU per 100 mL) were estimated (n = 396) and statistically analyzed relative to land use practices, hydroclimate, and pH, using a suite of methods, including correlation analysis, Principal Components Analysis (PCA), and Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Correlation analyses indicated significant (p < 0.05) relationships between fecal indicator bacteria concentrations, water quality metrics and land use practices but emphasized significant (p < 0.05) negative correlations between pH and instream enterococci concentrations. PCA and CCA results indicated consistent spatial differences between fecal indicator bacteria concentrations, pH, and land use/land cover characteristics. The study showed that pH could be considered an integrated proxy variable for past (legacy) and present land use practice influences. Results also bring to question the comparability of E-coli and enterococci relative to dominant land use practices and variations in pH and provide useful information that will help guide land use practice and water pollutant mitigation decision making.

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 22-Site Comparison of Land-Use Practices, E-coli and Enterococci Concentrations

Kellner

Petersen

2022

IJERPH

Self Cite

“…Further investigation into the mechanism(s) responsible for differential temperature trends at low and high elevation locations is needed, but warmer minimum and cooler maximum temperatures are consistent with attenuation of the diurnal temperature range due to forest cover [34] or cloud cover [35]. In addition to LULC changes in WV, increased forest coverage and maturity, and agricultural intensification (i.e., fertilization and irrigation; [36]) upwind of WV (i.e., Midwestern US) likely contributed to WV's increasingly humid WV climate [37]. Additional contributing mechanisms include (but are not limited to) increases in globally averaged atmospheric moisture associated with warming air and sea surface temperatures [38] or regional precipitation recycling [39].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Climatic Trends of West Virginia: A Representative Appalachian Microcosm

Kutta

2019

Water

Self Cite

During the late 19th and very early 20th centuries widespread deforestation occurred across the Appalachian region, USA. However, since the early 20th century, land cover rapidly changed from predominantly agricultural land use (72%; 1909) to forest. West Virginia (WV) is now the USA’s third most forested state by area (79%; 1989–present). It is well understood that land cover alterations feedback on climate with important implications for ecology, water resources, and watershed management. However, the spatiotemporal distribution of climatic changes during reforestation in WV remains unclear. To fill this knowledge gap, daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation data were acquired for eighteen observation sites with long periods of record (POR; ≥77 years). Results indicate an increasingly wet and temperate WV climate characterized by warming summertime minimum temperatures, cooling maximum temperatures year-round, and increased annual precipitation that accelerated during the second half (1959–2016) of the POR. Trends are elevation dependent and may be accelerating due to local to regional ecohydrological feedbacks including increasing forest age and density, changing forest species composition, and increasing globally averaged atmospheric moisture. Furthermore, results imply that excessive wetness may become the primary ecosystem stressor associated with climate change in the USA’s rugged and flood prone Appalachian region. The Appalachian region’s physiographic complexity and history of widespread land use changes makes climatic changes particularly dynamic. Therefore, mechanistic understanding of micro- to mesoscale climate changes is imperative to better inform decision makers and ensure preservation of the region’s rich natural resources.

“…This projection agrees well with [1], who also indicated that the global surface temperature increase for the 21st century would likely be within a range of 1.1 • C to 3.0 • C under RCP 4.5 and 3.0 • C to 5.0 • C for RCP 8.5. However, future increases in both Tmin and Tmax contrasted with the observed trend in West Virginia from 1900 to 2016 where the maximum temperature was shown to decrease (−1.0 • C) and minimum temperature increased (+0.4 • C) [4,5,15] based on long-term observed data. This is important given that temperature increases in the future are expected to alter the annual and monthly water flow regime [7,8,11,19,68].…”

Section: Projected Temperature Change In the 21st Centurymentioning

confidence: 96%

“…For example, from 1895 to 2011, average precipitation increased approximately five centimeters in the continental United States of America (USA) [1]. Similar to global and national climate trends, temperatures of the Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia (WV) have increased by approximately 0.28 • C to 0.56 • C in the last century, and high-intensity rainfall events are becoming increasingly frequent [2], thus suggesting an increasingly temperate climate with increasing annual precipitation [4,5]. While relative impacts are greatly unknown, this changing climate will impact the intensity and magnitude of water balance components of mountainous Appalachian watersheds [6][7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance Components of a Mountainous Watershed in the Northeastern USA

Abesh

Jin

2022

Water

Self Cite

Forcing watershed models with downscaled climate data to quantify future water regime changes can improve confidence in watershed planning. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated (R2 = 0.77, NSE = 0.76, and PBIAS = 7.1) and validated (R2 = 0.8, NSE = 0.78, and PBIAS = 8.8) using observed monthly streamflow in a representative mountainous watershed in the northeastern United States. Four downscaled global climate models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) were forced. Future periods were separated into three 20-year intervals: 2030s (2031–2050), 2050s (2051–2070), and 2070s (2071–2099), and compared to baseline conditions (1980–1999). Ensemble means of the four GCMs showed an increasing trend for precipitation with the highest average increase of 6.78% in 2070s under RCP 8.5. Evapotranspiration (ET) had increasing trends over the 21st century with the 2030s showing greater increases under both RCPs. Both streamflow (4.58–10.43%) and water yield (1.2–7.58%) showed increasing trends in the 2050s and 2070s under both RCPs. Seasonal increases in precipitation were predicted for most months of spring and summer. ET was predicted to increase from Spring to early Fall. Study results demonstrate the potential sensitivity of mountainous watersheds to future climate changes and the need for ongoing predictive modeling studies to advance forward looking mitigation decisions.