Observed Ocean Conditions and Hurricane Hilda, 1964

Leipper, Dale F.

doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1967)024<0182:oocahh>2.0.co;2

Cited by 184 publications

(142 citation statements)

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“…Energy fluxes between a tropical cyclone and the ocean surface play a crucial role in TC formation and intensification (Malkus and Riehl 1960;Leipper 1967;Gray 1975). For this reason, it is highly unlikely for a tropical cyclone to form over land (Fig.…”

Section: B Percent Landmentioning

confidence: 99%

Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation

Schumacher

DeMaria

Knaff

2009

Weather and Forecasting

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A new product for estimating the 24-h probability of TC formation in individual 58 3 58 subregions of the North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and western North Pacific tropical basins is developed. This product uses environmental and convective parameters computed from best-track tropical cyclone (TC) positions, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis fields, and water vapor (;6.7 mm wavelength) imagery from multiple geostationary satellite platforms. The parameters are used in a two-step algorithm applied to the developmental dataset. First, a screening step removes all data points with environmental conditions highly unfavorable to TC formation. Then, a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is applied to the screened dataset. A probabilistic prediction scheme for TC formation is developed from the results of the LDA.Coefficients computed by the LDA show that the largest contributors to TC formation probability are climatology, 850-hPa circulation, and distance to an existing TC. The product was evaluated by its Brier and relative operating characteristic skill scores and reliability diagrams. These measures show that the algorithmgenerated probabilistic forecasts are skillful with respect to climatology, and that there is relatively good agreement between forecast probabilities and observed frequencies. As such, this prediction scheme has been implemented as an operational product called the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NESDIS) Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product. The TCFP product updates every 6 h and displays plots of TC formation probability and input parameter values on its Web site. At present, the TCFP provides real-time, objective TC formation guidance used by tropical cyclone forecast offices in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and western Pacific basins.

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Section: B Percent Landmentioning

confidence: 99%

Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation

Schumacher

DeMaria

Knaff

2009

Weather and Forecasting

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“…While the oceans have been recognized as the energy source for hurricanes for more than half a century (Palmen, 1948;Fisher, 1958;Leipper, 1967;Perlroth, 1967), subsequent studies indicate that the maximum hurricane intensity was constrained by thermodynamic effects principally related to the sea surface temperature (SST) (Miller, 1958;Emanuel, 1986). More recent studies for hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) showed that decreases of the sea-level pressure were better correlated with the large depth of the 26 ºC isotherm and the ocean heat content (OHC) than the SSTs, which were essentially uniform for those cases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid deepening of tropical cyclones in the northeastern Tropical Pacific: The relationship with oceanic eddies

Oropeza¹,

Raga²

2015

Atm

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RESUMENLos datos del archivo de trayectorias mejoradas (best track) del Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Miami explosiva durante el periodo [1993][1994][1995][1996][1997][1998][1999][2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009]. Al mismo tiempo, observaciones de altimetría satelital muestran al de datos se utilizan para estudiar el papel de los remolinos oceánicos en la distribución espacial del calor de los resultados demuestra que: 1) la interacción entre CT y remolinos oceánicos anticiclónicos ocurrió en ~ 73% de los CT del periodo analizado; 2) de los CT que alcanzaron la categoría de huracanes, 90% había interaccionado con los remolinos oceánicos anticiclónicos; 3) ~ 18% (3%) de los CT se caracterizaron por profundización rápida (explosiva), 74% de éstos alcanzaron el estado de profundización después de su interacción directa y/o indirecta con remolinos oceánicos anticiclónicos, y de ellos el 86% alcanzó la categoría de huracán mayor. El análisis de las condiciones atmosféricas demuestra que la intrusión de aire seco a lo largo ABSTRACT cyclones (TC) that exhibited rapid and/or explosive deepening during the period 1993-2009. Concurrently, oceanic eddies. These two sources of data are used to study the role of oceanic eddies in the spatial distribution of the oceanic heat content and the rapid and/or explosive deepening of TCs in the northeastern Tropical Pain ~ 73% of the TCs within the analyzed period; (2) 90% of the TCs that reached major hurricane category had experienced an interaction with anticyclonic eddies; (3) ~ 18% (3%) of the TCs were characterized by rapid (explosive) deepening and 74% of these TCs reached the deepening status after direct and/or indirect interaction with anticyclonic eddies; moreover, 86% of them reached a major hurricane category. Analysis of the lower atmosphere as an inhibitor of tropical cyclone deepening.

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“…Since this mixing occurs episodically and on timescales much less than characteristic thermal restoration times, it leads to a noticeable and often spectacular cooling of the upper ocean [e.g., Leipper, 1967]. Over a period on the order of several months [Nelson, 1996], the cold wake left by tropical cyclones recovers to near-normal temperatures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of tropical cyclones to meridional heat transport by the oceans

Emanuel¹

2001

J. Geophys. Res.

279

298

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Abstract. Tropical cyclones mix warm surface waters with cooler water within the thermocline, leaving pronounced, cold wakes that over a period of weeks are restored to normal conditions by mixing and surface fluxes. This restoration is associated with net, vertically integrated heating of ocean columns, which in statistical equilibrium must be balanced by oceanic heat transport out of the regions affected by the storms. Observed tropical cyclone tracks together with coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane models are used to estimate the net ocean heating induced by global tropical cyclone activity during one calendar year (1996). This estimate, amounting to (1.4 +0.7)x1015 W, represents a substantial fraction of the observed peak poleward heat flux by the oceans, suggesting that tropical cyclones may play an important role in driving the thermohaline circulation and thereby in regulating climate. In particular, the strong sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to tropical ocean temperatures in turn implies that the net poleward heat flux by the ocean is sensitive to tropical temperature, reducing tropical climate sensitivity and increasing climate sensitivity at higher latitudes.

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Observed Ocean Conditions and Hurricane Hilda, 1964

Cited by 184 publications

References 0 publications

Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation

Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation

Rapid deepening of tropical cyclones in the northeastern Tropical Pacific: The relationship with oceanic eddies

Contribution of tropical cyclones to meridional heat transport by the oceans

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