Observed shift towards earlier spring discharge in the main Alpine rivers

Zampieri, Matteo; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Gualdi, Silvio; Navarra, Antonio

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.06.036

Cited by 33 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…Además, el momento del máximo anual tiende a adelantarse aproximadamente un mes, pasando de mayo a abril en los ríos más occidentales (Aragón, Gállego), y de junio a mayo en los más orientales (Ara, Cinca, Ésera y Noguera Ribagorzana). En consecuencia, se adelanta y acentúa el estiaje anual, al agotarse antes la reserva de nieve, un fenómeno también detectado en la mayoría de los ríos de los Alpes (Zampieri et al, 2015).…”

Section: Las Consecuencias Del Cambio Global Sobre Los Recursos Hídriunclassified

Los efectos geoecológicos del cambio global en el Pirineo Central español: una revisión a distintas escalas espaciales y temporales

García‐Ruiz¹,

López‐Moreno²,

Lasanta³

et al. 2015

Pirineos

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. Los efectos geoecológicos del cambio global en el Pirineo Central español: una revisión a distintas escalas espaciales y temporales. Pirineos, 170, e012. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/Pirineos.2015.170005 RESUMEN: Se revisan los efectos de la evolución del clima y los cambios de uso del suelo / cubierta vegetal en el Pirineo Central español a diferentes escalas espaciales y temporales. Los estudios paleoclimáticos, basados en análi-sis multiproxy de sedimentos lacustres, glaciares, espeleotémicos y registros dendrológicos, entre otros, han demostrado la ocurrencia de importantes fluctuaciones climáticas durante la deglaciación de finales del Pleistoceno Superior y durante el Holoceno, afectando a la distribución de la vegetación, la generación de escorrentía, la frecuencia de avenidas y las formas de organización del espacio por parte de las sociedades humanas, en particular durante el evento 8.2, la Edad del Bronce, la Anomalía Climática Medieval y la Pequeña Edad del Hielo. El estudio del impacto de las actividades humanas sobre la dinámica del paisaje en el último siglo y medio ha revelado cambios espectaculares en la estructura y distribución de la vegetación, tanto en el piso montano como en el subalpino y, consecuentemente, cambios en la generación de escorrentía, la intensidad de la erosión del suelo y las fuentes de sedimento, cualquiera que sea la escala espacial a la que se contempla el problema. De forma general puede afirmarse que a mediados del siglo xix se alcanza la máxima presión sobre el territorio, cultivándose todas las laderas posibles hasta una altitud aproximada de 1650 m s.n.m. y empleando frecuentemente el fuego para limitar la expansión de matorrales en zonas de pastos, lo que dio lugar a intensos procesos de erosión y degradación del suelo, y al desarrollo de ríos trenzados con una elevada torrencialidad. Posteriormente, el abandono de tierras de cultivo desde comienzos del siglo xx (y, en especial, desde la década de 1960) y el descenso de la presión ganadera han favorecido la revegetación de las antiguas áreas de cultivo y pastos bien por avance de formaciones naturales de matorral y bosque, bien por la reforestación artificial de extensas laderas, ascendiendo el treeline en el piso subalpino, en este último caso

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Section: Las Consecuencias Del Cambio Global Sobre Los Recursos Hídriunclassified

Los efectos geoecológicos del cambio global en el Pirineo Central español: una revisión a distintas escalas espaciales y temporales

García‐Ruiz¹,

López‐Moreno²,

Lasanta³

et al. 2015

Pirineos

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“…However, the runoff ratio for March and April (61 days) was highly variable across the 13 years of data, exceeding 1.0 in 1980 (1.34) and 1982 (2.00). We interpret this as demonstrating a major snowmelt contribution to the runoff regime (after Zampieri et al 2015). According to Tamab, snowfall on this catchment is negligible.…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 61%

Prediction of climate change effects on the runoff regime of a forested catchment in northern Iran

Hajian

Dykes

Zahabiyoun

et al. 2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Abstract:The southern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran is bordered by a mountain range with forested catchments which are susceptible to droughts and floods. This paper examines possible changes to runoff patterns from one of these catchments in response to climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model was used with downscaled future rainfall and temperature data from 13 Global Circulation Models, and meteorological and hydrometric data from the Casilian (or 'Kassilian') Catchment. Annual and seasonal predictions of runoff change for three future emissions scenarios were obtained, which suggest significantly higher spring rainfall with increased risk of flooding and significantly lower summer rainfall leading to a higher probability of droughts. "Flash floods" arising from extreme rainfall may become more frequent, occurring at any time of year. These findings indicate a need for strategic planning of water resource management and mitigation measures for increasing flood hazards. Prediction of climate change effects on the runoff regime of a forested catchment in northern Iran AbstractThe southern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran is bordered by a mountain range with forested catchments which are susceptible to droughts and floods. This paper examines possible changes to runoff patterns from one of these catchments in response to climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model was used with downscaled future rainfall and temperature data from 13 Global Circulation Models, and meteorological and hydrometric data from the Casilian (or 'Kassilian') Catchment. Annual and seasonal predictions of runoff change for three future emissions scenarios were obtained, which suggest significantly higher spring rainfall with increased risk of flooding and significantly lower summer rainfall leading to a higher probability of droughts. "Flash floods" arising from extreme rainfall may become more frequent, occurring at any time of year. These findings indicate a need for strategic planning of water resource management and mitigation measures for increasing flood hazards.

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“…The average annual precipitation in the catchment is 78 km 3 in volume, of which 60 % reaches the closure river cross section at Pontelagoscuro. The hydrological behavior of the Po River is described in detail in recent studies (Zanchettin et al, 2008;Montanari, 2012;Zampieri et al, 2015). The discharge pattern at Pontelagoscuro presents a mean annual flow of about 1470 m 3 s −1 and shows a typical pluvial regime, and thus a strong seasonality with two flood seasons in spring and autumn ( Fig.…”

Section: Study Sites and Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 89%

Real-time updating of the flood frequency distribution through data assimilation

Aguilar

Montanari

Polo

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. We explore the memory properties of catchments for predicting the likelihood of floods based on observations of average flows in pre-flood seasons. Our approach assumes that flood formation is driven by the superimposition of short- and long-term perturbations. The former is given by the short-term meteorological forcing leading to infiltration and/or saturation excess, while the latter is originated by higher-than-usual storage in the catchment. To exploit the above sensitivity to long-term perturbations, a meta-Gaussian model and a data assimilation approach are implemented for updating the flood frequency distribution a season in advance. Accordingly, the peak flow in the flood season is predicted in probabilistic terms by exploiting its dependence on the average flow in the antecedent seasons. We focus on the Po River at Pontelagoscuro and the Danube River at Bratislava. We found that the shape of the flood frequency distribution is noticeably impacted by higher-than-usual flows occurring up to several months earlier. The proposed technique may allow one to reduce the uncertainty associated with the estimation of flood frequency.

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Observed shift towards earlier spring discharge in the main Alpine rivers

Cited by 33 publications

References 85 publications

Los efectos geoecológicos del cambio global en el Pirineo Central español: una revisión a distintas escalas espaciales y temporales

Los efectos geoecológicos del cambio global en el Pirineo Central español: una revisión a distintas escalas espaciales y temporales

Prediction of climate change effects on the runoff regime of a forested catchment in northern Iran

Real-time updating of the flood frequency distribution through data assimilation

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