Observed storminess patterns and trends in the circum-Arctic coastal regime

Atkinson, David E.

doi:10.1007/s00367-004-0191-0

Cited by 97 publications

(129 citation statements)

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“…As an example drawn upon in this study, Ashjian et al (2010) interviews with Iñupiat whalers in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow) identified winds 6 m s −1 or higher as impediments to whaling because hunters consider the resulting wave conditions too unsafe to travel via boat. Alternatively, Atkinson (2005) used a 10 m s −1 wind speed threshold for a duration of 6 h of longer to produce a climatology of storm events. The 10 m s −1 threshold was based on the finding of Solomon et al (1994) that winds of this magnitude or greater produce waves with enough power to do geomorphological work on the coastline or damage to infrastructure and habitats.…”

Section: Identification Of Metrics Useful For Describing Climate Chanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wind events exceeding 10 m s −1 for a duration of 6 h or longer have been found to have potential to cause geomorphological change or damage to coastal infrastructure or habitats (Atkinson, 2005;Jones et al, 2009). The number of these events was calculated for Kotzebue, Shishmaref, and Utqiaġvik from 1979 through 2014 using the WRF-downscaled output.…”

Section: Indices Relating To Open Water Wind Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The number of these events was calculated for Kotzebue, Shishmaref, and Utqiaġvik from 1979 through 2014 using the WRF-downscaled output. Timesteps of lulls during "shoulder events" were counted as part of the geomorphologically significant wind event as long as the wind speeds did not dip below 7 m s −1 , which follows the same method as used in Atkinson (2005). We have also counted the number of high-wind events as defined by Atkinson (2005) (greater than 10 m s −1 for at least 6 h) but have an added restriction that winds conducive to erosion must be blowing from directions within a 90 arcdeg between normal to the coastline and alongshore with the coast to the right of the wind.…”

Section: Indices Relating To Open Water Wind Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Timesteps of lulls during "shoulder events" were counted as part of the geomorphologically significant wind event as long as the wind speeds did not dip below 7 m s −1 , which follows the same method as used in Atkinson (2005). We have also counted the number of high-wind events as defined by Atkinson (2005) (greater than 10 m s −1 for at least 6 h) but have an added restriction that winds conducive to erosion must be blowing from directions within a 90 arcdeg between normal to the coastline and alongshore with the coast to the right of the wind. High winds from these directions favor both wave generation and water setup along the coastline (i.e., increase in local sea level) and can therefore be particularly damaging to a community in terms of increasing erosion rates (Barnhart et al, 2014) and possible infrastructure damage due to flooding.…”

Section: Indices Relating To Open Water Wind Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2.5, wind events exceeding 10 m s −1 for at least 6 h have the potential to cause geomorphological change (Atkinson, 2005;Solomon et al, 1994; Jones , 1983, 1985, 1988, 1991, and 1992) did not have any of these wind events over open water, because the ice pack did not recede far enough offshore in earlier years. At Kotzebue, there has also been an increase in geomorphologically significant wind events, but at a slower rate than Utqiaġvik, about 1 additional event every 5 years, leading to an increase of about 7.2 events over the 36-year time period (Fig.…”

Section: Changes In Timing Of Freeze-up and Break-up And Number Of Famentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities: deriving locally relevant indices from large-scale datasets and community observations

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Using thresholds of physical climate variables developed from community observations, together with two large-scale datasets, we have produced local indices directly relevant to the impacts of a reduced sea ice cover on Alaska coastal communities. The indices include the number of "false freeze-ups" defined by transient exceedances of ice concentration prior to a corresponding exceedance that persists, "false break-ups", timing of freeze-up and break-up, length of the open water duration, number of days when the winds preclude hunting via boat (wind speed threshold exceedances), the number of wind events conducive to geomorphological work or damage to infrastructure from ocean waves, and the number of these wind events with onand along-shore components promoting water setup along the coastline. We demonstrate how community observations can inform use of large-scale datasets to derive these locally relevant indices.

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Section: Identification Of Metrics Useful For Describing Climate Chanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Indices Relating To Open Water Wind Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Indices Relating To Open Water Wind Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Indices Relating To Open Water Wind Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Changes In Timing Of Freeze-up and Break-up And Number Of Famentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities: deriving locally relevant indices from large-scale datasets and community observations

et al. 2018

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Factors driving mercury variability in the Arctic atmosphere and ocean over the past 30 years

Fisher

Jacob

Soerensen

et al. 2013

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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[1] Long-term observations at Arctic sites (Alert and Zeppelin) show large interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric mercury (Hg), implying a strong sensitivity of Hg to environmental factors and potentially to climate change. We use the GEOS-Chem global biogeochemical Hg model to interpret these observations and identify the principal drivers of spring and summer IAV in the Arctic atmosphere and surface ocean from 1979-2008. The model has moderate skill in simulating the observed atmospheric IAV at the two sites (r~0.4) and successfully reproduces a long-term shift at Alert in the timing of the spring minimum from May to April (r = 0.7). Principal component analysis indicates that much of the IAV in the model can be explained by a single climate mode with high temperatures, low sea ice fraction, low cloudiness, and shallow boundary layer. This mode drives decreased bromine-driven deposition in spring and increased ocean evasion in summer. In the Arctic surface ocean, we find that the IAV for modeled total Hg is dominated by the meltwater flux of Hg previously deposited to sea ice, which is largest in years with high solar radiation (clear skies) and cold spring air temperature. Climate change in the Arctic is projected to result in increased cloudiness and strong warming in spring, which may thus lead to decreased Hg inputs to the Arctic Ocean. The effect of climate change on Hg discharges from Arctic rivers remains a major source of uncertainty.

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Modeling erosion of ice-rich permafrost bluffs along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

Barnhart

Anderson

Overeem

et al. 2014

J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf.

145

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The Arctic climate is changing, inducing accelerating retreat of ice‐rich permafrost coastal bluffs. Along Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast, erosion rates have increased roughly threefold from 6.8 to 19 m yr−1 since 1955 while the sea ice‐free season has increased roughly twofold from 45 to 100 days since 1979. We develop a numerical model of bluff retreat to assess the relative roles of the length of sea ice‐free season, sea level, water temperature, nearshore wavefield, and permafrost temperature in controlling erosion rates in this setting. The model captures the processes of erosion observed in short‐term monitoring experiments along the Beaufort Sea coast, including evolution of melt notches, topple of ice wedge‐bounded blocks, and degradation of these blocks. Model results agree with time‐lapse imagery of bluff evolution and time series of ocean‐based instrumentation. Erosion is highly episodic with 40% of erosion is accomplished during less than 5% of the sea ice‐free season. Among the formulations of the submarine erosion rate we assessed, we advocate those that employ both water temperature and nearshore wavefield. As high water levels are a prerequisite for erosion, any future changes that increase the frequency with which water levels exceed the base of the bluffs will increase rates of coastal erosion. The certain increases in sea level and potential changes in storminess will both contribute to this effect. As water temperature also influences erosion rates, any further expansion of the sea ice‐free season into the midsummer period of greatest insolation is likely to result in an additional increase in coastal retreat rates.

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Observed storminess patterns and trends in the circum-Arctic coastal regime

Cited by 97 publications

References 13 publications

Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities: deriving locally relevant indices from large-scale datasets and community observations

Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities: deriving locally relevant indices from large-scale datasets and community observations

Factors driving mercury variability in the Arctic atmosphere and ocean over the past 30 years

Modeling erosion of ice-rich permafrost bluffs along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

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