Observed trends in daily rainfall variability result in more severe climate change impacts to agriculture

Shortridge, Julie

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02555-x

Cited by 34 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…These predicted changes in climate are expected to have worldwide impacts on agriculture, with the most vulnerable areas being Africa, Asia and Latin America (Jarvis et al 2009 ; Ayanlade et al 2018 ). There is increasing evidence that climate change is impacting total precipitation and its temporal dynamics with significant effects on crop yields (Shortridge 2019 ) and biodiversity (Jarvis et al 2009 ; Bálint et al 2011 ; FAO 2015 ). One of the options for better adaptation to climate change includes the management of biodiversity for ecosystem resilience (Dauber and Miyake 2016 ; UNCCD 2017 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetics and breeding for climate change in Orphan crops

et al. 2021

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Climate change is rapidly changing how we live, what we eat and produce, the crops we breed and the target traits. Previously underutilized orphan crops that are climate resilient are receiving much attention from the crops research community, as they are often the only crops left in the field after periods of extreme weather conditions. There are several orphan crops with incredible resilience to biotic and abiotic stresses. Some are nutritious, while others provide good sources of biofuel, medicine and other industrial raw materials. Despite these benefits, orphan crops are still lacking in important genetic and genomic resources that could be used to fast track their improvement and make their production profitable. Progress has been made in generating draft genomes of at least 28 orphan crops over the last decade, thanks to the reducing cost of sequencing. The implementation of a structured breeding program that takes advantage of additional modern crop improvement tools such as genomic selection, speed breeding, genome editing, high throughput phenotyping and breeding digitization would make rapid improvement of these orphan crops possible, but would require coordinated research investment. Other production challenges such as lack of adequate germplasm conservation, poor/non-existent seed systems and agricultural extension services, as well as poor marketing channels will also need to be improved if orphan crops were to be profitable. We review the importance of breeding orphan crops under the increasing effects of climate change, highlight existing gaps that need to be addressed and share some lessons to be learned from major crops.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetics and breeding for climate change in Orphan crops

et al. 2021

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“…Our results suggest that in this system, increased precipitation intensity is unlikely to exacerbate increased water stress that could be caused by warming. However, positive, neutral, and negative responses to increased precipitation intensity have been observed in other crops [8,17,18], underscoring the need for experiments such as ours to help estimate likely growth responses of specific crops.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…To limit vulnerability, dryland crop producers select crops and varieties for climateresistant traits, such as optimized water uptake, high water-use efficiency through conservative water use, and drought escape (e.g., early maturity) [3,16]. However, both observational and modeling studies have reported a wide range of crop responses to precipitation intensity, from positive to negative [8,[17][18][19]. Thus, uncertainty remains regarding how crops, especially those dependent on natural rainfall, will respond to altered precipitation regimes [20,21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter Wheat Resistant to Increases in Rain and Snow Intensity in a Semi-Arid System

2021

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As the atmosphere warms, precipitation events have been predicted and observed to become fewer and larger. Changes in precipitation patterns can have large effects on dryland agricultural production, but experimental tests on the effects of changing precipitation intensity are limited. Over 3 years, we tested the effects of increased precipitation intensity on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.; Promontory variety) in a temperate dryland agricultural system that was on a rotation of crop and fallow years. We used 11 (2.1 × 2.5 m) shelters to collect and redeposit rain and snow as larger, more intense events. Total precipitation was the same in all plots, but event sizes in each plot varied from 1 to 18 mm. Treatments increased soil water availability, but winter wheat biomass and grain yield did not differ among treatments. Similarly, other measured plant growth responses, including vegetation greenness, leaf area index, canopy temperature, photochemical efficiency, root area, and new root growth, did not differ among treatments. Results indicate that at least in the semiarid climate and silt loam soils studied here, anticipated increases in precipitation intensity are unlikely to affect winter wheat production negatively. Further, increased precipitation intensity may mitigate water stress caused by increasing temperatures and encourage the use of wheat varieties that utilize deeper, later season soil water.

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“…NPS refers to accumulated pollutants (e.g., fertilizers) in a watershed entering the downstream receiving water body in a wide, dispersed, and trace form under the flushing and transport of precipitation, thus leading to eutrophication, damaging the aquatic environment, and threatening water security (Miralha et al 2020 ; Mosley 2015 ). Precipitation plays an important role in the processing of NPS, as it is not only the key driving force of NPS (in the way of precipitation runoff and/or soil erosion), but it can also affect the physicochemical properties of soils (e.g., moisture content, pH, C/N ratio, temperature), reshaping the surface water flux, groundwater flux, and ecohydrological flux accordingly (Ouyang et al 2019 ; Shortridge 2019 ). Precipitation is also the dominant input of both physics-based and statistics-based NPS models, indicating the importance of precipitation characteristics to NPS (Miralha et al 2020 ; Varekar et al 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation projection over Daqing River Basin (North China) considering the evolution of dependence structures

Gao

Liu

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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Understanding dynamic future changes in precipitation can provide prior information for nonpoint source pollution simulations under global warming. However, the evolution of the dependence structure and the unevenness characteristics of precipitation are rarely considered. This study applied a two-stage bias correction to daily precipitation and max/min temperature data in the Daqing River Basin (DQRB) with the HadGEM3-RA climate model. Validated from 1981 to 2015, future scenarios under two emission paths covering 2031–2065 and 2066–2100 were projected to assess variations in both the amount and unevenness of precipitation. The results suggested that, overall, the two-stage bias correction could reproduce the marginal distributions of variables and the evolution process of the dependence structure. In the future, the amount of precipitation in the plains is expected to increase more than that in the mountains, while precipitation unevenness, as measured by relative entropy, shows a slight increase in the mountains and a decrease in the plains, with enhanced seasonality. Conditioned on rising temperatures, high-/low-intensity precipitation tends to intensify/weaken precipitation unevenness. Additionally, the potential application of the bias correction method used herein and the possible impacts of uneven precipitation on nonpoint source pollution are given for further analyses. This study can provide useful information for future nonpoint source pollution simulations in the DQRB. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-16066-9.

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Observed trends in daily rainfall variability result in more severe climate change impacts to agriculture

Cited by 34 publications

References 50 publications

Genetics and breeding for climate change in Orphan crops

Genetics and breeding for climate change in Orphan crops

Winter Wheat Resistant to Increases in Rain and Snow Intensity in a Semi-Arid System

Precipitation projection over Daqing River Basin (North China) considering the evolution of dependence structures

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