Observed trends in indices of daily and extreme temperature and precipitation for the countries of the western Indian Ocean, 1961–2008

Vincent, Lucie A.; Aguilar, Enric; Saindou, M.; Hassane, A. F.; Jumaux, Guillaume; Roy, Denis; Booneeady, P; Virasami, R.; Randriamarolaza, Luc Yannick Andréas; Faniriantsoa, F. R.; Amélie, Vincent; Seeward, H.; Montfraix, B.

doi:10.1029/2010jd015303

Cited by 111 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

108

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These issues have been extensively discussed in many climatological (e.g. Zhang et al, 2005;Vincent et al, 2010) and hydrological (e.g. Yue and Wang, 2004) applications.…”

Section: Assessment Of Uncertainty In Trends Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern Spain (1960–2006)

Kenawy

López‐Moreno

Vicente‐Serrano

2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events in northeastern Spain have been investigated. The analysis is based on long-term, high-quality, and homogenous daily maximum and minimum temperature of 128 observatories spanning the period from 1960 to 2006. A total of 21 indices were used to assess changes in both the cold and hot tails of the daily temperature distributions. The presence of trends in temperature extremes was assessed by means of the Mann-Kendall test. However, the autocorrelation function (ACF) and a bootstrap methodology were used to account for the influence of serial correlation and cross-correlation on the trend assessment. In general, the observed changes are more prevalent in hot extremes than in cold extremes. This finding can largely be linked to the increase found in the mean maximum temperature during the last few decades. The results indicate a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of most of the hot temperature extremes. An increase in warm nights (TN90p: 3.3 days decade −1 ), warm days (TX90p: 2.7 days decade −1 ), tropical nights (TR20: 0.6 days decade −1 ) and the annual high maximum temperature (TXx: 0.27 • C decade −1 ) was detected in the 47-yr period. In contrast, most of the indices related to cold temperature extremes (e.g. cold days (TX10p), cold nights (TN10p), very cold days (TN1p), and frost days (FD0)) demonstrated a decreasing but statistically insignificant trend. Although there is no evidence of a longterm trend in cold extremes, significant interdecadal variations were noted. Almost no significant trends in temperature variability indices (e.g. diurnal temperature range (DTR) and growing season length (GSL)) are detected. Spatially, the coastal areas along the Mediterranean Sea and the Cantabrian Correspondence to: A. El Kenawy (kenawy@ipe.csic.es) Sea experienced stronger warming compared with mainland areas. Given that only few earlier studies analyzed observed changes in temperature extremes at fine spatial resolution across the Iberian Peninsula, the results of this work can improve our understanding of climatology of temperature extremes. Also, these findings can have different hydrological, ecological and agricultural implications (e.g. crop yields, energy consumption, land use planning and water resources management).

show abstract

“…These issues have been extensively discussed in many climatological (e.g. Zhang et al, 2005;Vincent et al, 2010) and hydrological (e.g. Yue and Wang, 2004) applications.…”

Section: Assessment Of Uncertainty In Trends Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern Spain (1960–2006)

Kenawy

López‐Moreno

Vicente‐Serrano

2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The temperature and precipitation indices are fairly standard indices defined by the World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology and the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring, and Indices (ETCCDMI) [31]. They have been widely applied in analyzing extreme events worldwide [12,14,15,17,[32][33][34][35]. The runoff indices selected are typically used as operational metrics in guiding reservoir operations and water supply planning practices [36].…”

Section: Study Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Extremes of Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff in California’s Central Valley During 1949–2010

He¹,

Russo²,

Anderson³

et al. 2017

Hydrology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study presents a comprehensive trend analysis of precipitation, temperature, and runoff extremes in the Central Valley of California from an operational perspective. California is prone to those extremes of which any changes could have long-lasting adverse impacts on the society, economy, and environment of the State. Available long-term operational datasets of 176 forecasting basins in six forecasting groups and inflow to 12 major water supply reservoirs are employed. A suite of nine precipitation indices and nine temperature indices derived from historical (water year 1949-2010) six-hourly precipitation and temperature data for these basins are investigated, along with nine indices based on daily unimpaired inflow to those 12 reservoirs in a slightly shorter period. Those indices include daily maximum precipitation, temperature, runoff, snowmelt, and others that are critical in informing decision making in water resources management. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test is applied with a trend-free pre-whitening procedure in identifying trends in these indices. Changes in empirical probability distributions of individual study indices in two equal sub-periods are also investigated. The results show decreasing number of cold nights, increasing number of warm nights, increasing maximum temperature, and increasing annual mean minimum temperature at about 60% of the study area. Changes in cold extremes are generally more pronounced than their counterparts in warm extremes, contributing to decreasing diurnal temperature ranges. In general, the driest and coldest Tulare forecasting group observes the most consistent changes among all six groups. Analysis of probability distributions of temperature indices in two sub-periods yields similar results. In contrast, changes in precipitation extremes are less consistent spatially and less significant in terms of change rate. Only four indices exhibit statistically significant changes in less than 10% of the study area. On the regional scale, only the American forecasting group shows significant decreasing trends in two indices including maximum six-hourly precipitation and simple daily intensity index. On the other hand, runoff exhibits strong resilience to the changes noticed in temperature and precipitation extremes. Only the most southern reservoir (Lake Isabella) shows significant earlier peak timing of snowmelt. Additional analysis on runoff indices using different trend analysis methods and different analysis periods also indicates limited changes in these runoff indices. Overall, these findings are meaningful in guiding reservoir operations and water resources planning and management practices. IntroductionClimatic and weather-induced hazards including excessive heat, flooding, and drought are often economically, environmentally, and societally disruptive [1][2][3]. Previous studies have suggested that such hazards are typically caused by changes in the frequency and intensity rather than the mean of hydro-climatic variables including precipita...

show abstract

“…Suppiah and Hennessy [4] showed a significant increase in the 90th and 95th percentile of daily rainfall in Australia. Vincent et al [5] found some increases in consecutive dry days but no change in consecutive wet days and a decrease in precipitation extremes (including R10, R20, RX1day and RX5day) for countries of the western Indian Ocean. Klein Tank & Können [6] analyzed trends in indices of climate extremes in Europe and confirmed that at stations where the annual amount increases, the extreme index has similar changes, but for stations with a decreasing annual amount, there is no such amplified response of the precipitation extremes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Precipitation Extremes and Seasonality over China from 1961~2013

Tao

Wang

Song

et al. 2018

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Using the 0.5 • × 0.5 • gridded Chinese ground precipitation dataset from 1961-2013, spatial and temporal variations in precipitation extremes, total precipitation, the seasonality of precipitation and their linkages in the context of climate change are investigated using the Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt change-point test and correlation analysis. The investigation focuses on four extreme indices, i.e., the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the annual maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the annual total precipitation when daily precipitation is greater than 95th percentile (R95pTOT), and the maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day). The results show that precipitation extremes increased in northwestern China, especially Xinjiang, Tibet and Qinghai (CWD, R95pTOT and RX1day), and scattered parts of southeastern China (R95pTOT and RX1day), but decreased over considerable parts of southwestern China (CWD) and some small parts of northern China (CWD, R95pTOT and RX1day); the spatial patterns of the trends in precipitation extremes and that of total precipitation exhibit considerable similarity over China, which indicates the close relationship between changes in precipitation extremes and total precipitation; change points are detected in different periods ranging from early 1970s to early 2000s for different regions and extreme precipitation indices, and the spatial patterns of the abrupt changes of extreme indices are similar to those of the trends in extreme indices; the concentration index (CI) is strongly positively correlated with R95pTOT and RX1day in most areas in northern China (from the northeast to the northwest) and southwestern China (including Sichuan, Chongqing Guizhou and Guangxi), which means for these regions, the temporal heterogeneity of daily precipitation over a year is dominated by heavy rainfall amounts. The seasonality index of precipitation (SI) is positively related to R95pTOT and RX1day over most areas above 30 • N, indicating that heavy precipitation events have a better chance to occur in places with a strong seasonal variation in annual precipitation in these areas, but for most areas below 30 • N, the positive relationship is not significant.

show abstract

Observed trends in indices of daily and extreme temperature and precipitation for the countries of the western Indian Ocean, 1961–2008

Cited by 111 publications

References 24 publications

Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern Spain (1960–2006)

Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern Spain (1960–2006)

Changes in Extremes of Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff in California’s Central Valley During 1949–2010

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Precipitation Extremes and Seasonality over China from 1961~2013

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About