Observed warming trend in sea surface temperature at tropical cyclone genesis

Defforge, Cécile L.; Merlis, Timothy M.

doi:10.1002/2016gl071045

Cited by 20 publications

(17 citation statements)

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“…Oouchi et al (2006) present 10-year model outputs (using average SST conditions from 2080 to 2099), which project an increase of tropical cyclone intensity by 7.3 m s −1 in the NH and 3.3 m s −1 in the SH. Similarly, studies observed that tropical cyclone occurrence and intensity vary between the different ocean basins (Defforge & Merlis, 2017b;Klotzbach & Landsea, 2015). However, as a result of changes in the methodologies used in the monitoring and reporting of tropical cyclone activity in the SH, there are ambiguous findings regarding storm intensity in the track records, making these observations in intensity unreliable (Kuleshov et al, 2010;Landsea et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With the larger amount of observational data existing for NH tropical cyclones coupled with the larger number of models used to project hurricane activity, the skill at successfully predicting North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones is comparatively greater (Camargo, 2013;Emanuel, 2005;Klotzbach et al, 2017;Vecchi et al, 2014). This is superior to the SH data, which only has reliable data from geostationary satellites post-1980 for the South Indian basin, which accounts for the majority of SH storms (Defforge & Merlis, 2017b;Kuleshov et al, 2008Kuleshov et al, , 2010Landsea et al, 2006;Mao et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been assumed that the characteristics of tropical cyclones for the NH are similar to those of the SH (Gray, 1979; Klotzbach et al, 2017). This assumption underpins the analysis of tropical cyclone histories (Nash et al, 2015), impacts (Defforge & Merlis, 2017a, 2017b; Fankhauser & McDermott, 2014; Tennille & Ellis, 2018) and future projections (Camargo and Wing 2016; Camargo et al, 2014), with implications for planning and adaptation (Zhong et al, 2018). This uniformitarianism is problematic, as the ocean structure is very different in the NH, where larger basins promote greater heat storage capacity without increasing the mean sea surface temperature (SST) (Gastineau et al, 2018; Lee et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Southern hemisphere tropical cyclones: A critical analysis of regional characteristics

Pillay

Fitchett

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The destructive nature of tropical cyclones poses a risk to the regions where they occur during and after landfall. Southern hemisphere countries are usually more vulnerable to these risks and impacts due to their lower adaptive capacity. Research for the northern hemisphere has comprehensively explored the nature of tropical cyclones. This information has since been applied to long-term adaptation plans and short-term evacuation plans. This study interrogates the characteristics and nature of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones and critically explores their differences to Northern Hemisphere storm characteristics. The differences found between the hemispheric storm activities include seasonality, number of storms and the latitudinal position at which these storms undergo genesis and intensification. Similarities were found in storm intensity, which was observed to increase with the time taken to reach maximum lifetime intensity. Higher sea surface temperatures were similarly found to be a major factor associated with increased intensity and lifetime of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone seasonality is also centred around the warmer months within each hemisphere. Compared to the Northern Hemisphere the tropical cyclone seasonal length indicates no increase. The magnitude of sea surface temperature increase is also lower in the Northern Hemisphere. These fundamental links observed with temperature in both hemispheres implicates climate warming and its impact on tropical cyclones in both hemispheres, regardless of their seasonality and frequency.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Southern hemisphere tropical cyclones: A critical analysis of regional characteristics

Pillay

Fitchett

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The ocean is the main source of energy for TC intensification, hence, changes in oceanic environments considerably affect TC activity (Knutson et al, 2010;Huang et al, 2015;Sun et al, 2017;Trepanier, 2020). Sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC) have risen significantly over the past several decades in regions of TC formation (Santer et al, 2006;Defforge and Merlis, 2017;Trenberth et al, 2018;Cheng et al, 2019;Zanna et al, 2019;Chih and Wu, 2020). Accordingly, TC lifetime maximum intensity significantly increased during 1981-2016 for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Song et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oceanic response to the consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto (2019) in the Sargasso Sea

Avila-Alonso¹,

Baetens²,

Cárdenas³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Understanding the oceanic response to tropical cyclones (TCs) is of importance for studies on climate change. Although the oceanic effects induced by individual TCs have been extensively investigated, studies on the oceanic response to the passage of consecutive TCs are rare. In this work, we assess the upper oceanic response to the passage of the Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto over the western Sargasso Sea in 2019 using satellite remote sensing and modelled data. We found that the combined effects of these slow-moving TCs led to an increased oceanic response during the third and fourth post-storm weeks of Dorian (accounting for both Dorian and Humberto effects) because of the induced mixing and upwelling at this time. Overall, anomalies of sea surface temperature, ocean heat content and mean temperature from the sea surface to a depth of 100 m were a 50, 63 and 57% smaller (more negative) in the third/fourth post-storm weeks than in the first/second poststorm weeks (accounting only for Dorian effects) of Dorian, respectively, while surface chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration anomalies, the mean ch-a concentration in the euphotic zone and the chl-a concentration in the deep chlorophyll maximum were 16, 4 and 16% higher in the third/fourth post-storm weeks than in the first/second post-storm weeks, respectively. The sea surface cooling and increased biological response induced by these TCs were significantly higher (Mann-Whitney test p < 0.05) as compared to climatological records. Our climatological analysis reveals that the strongest TC-induced oceanographic variability in the western Sargasso Sea can be associated with the occurrence of consecutive TCs and long-lasting TC forcing.

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“…Global anthropogenic climate change is having a well‐documented effect on oceanographic, biogeochemical and hydrological mechanisms that regulate the structure and functioning of marine systems (Leadley et al., ). The impacts of global environmental change on biotic and abiotic processes include shifting current patterns (Ridgway, ; Sloyan, Ridgway, & Cowley, ), altered frequency or intensity of environmental phenomena (Defforge & Merlis, ; Garcia‐Reyes et al., ), increased ocean acidification (Hoegh‐Guldberg et al., ) and ocean temperatures (IPCC, ; Rhein et al., ), as well as altered species distributions (IPCC, ; Pecl et al., , ), trophic states (Johnson et al., ), metabolic activity (Deutsch, Ferrel, Seibel, Pörtner, & Huey, ; Lefort et al., ) and ecosystem diversity (Harley, ). The effects of global environmental change on the structure and function of marine ecosystems are determined by complex spatially and temporally dynamic relationships between shifts in system state and system resilience (Leadley et al., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdisciplinary knowledge exchange across scales in a globally changing marine environment

McDonald

Hobday

Fulton

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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The effects of anthropogenic global environmental change on biotic and abiotic processes have been reported in aquatic systems across the world. Complex synergies between concurrent environmental stressors and the resilience of the system to regime shifts, which vary in space and time, determine the capacity for marine systems to maintain structure and function with global environmental change. Consequently, an interdisciplinary approach that facilitates the development of new methods for the exchange of knowledge between scientists across multiple scales is required to effectively understand, quantify and predict climate impacts on marine ecosystem services. We use a literature review to assess the limitations and assumptions of current pathways to exchange interdisciplinary knowledge and the transferability of research findings across spatial and temporal scales and levels of biological organization to advance scientific understanding of global environmental change in marine systems. We found that species-specific regional scale climate change research is most commonly published, and "supporting" is the ecosystem service most commonly referred to in publications. In addition, our paper outlines a trajectory for the future development of integrated climate change science for sustaining marine ecosystem services such as investment in interdisciplinary education and connectivity between disciplines.

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Observed warming trend in sea surface temperature at tropical cyclone genesis

Cited by 20 publications

References 44 publications

Southern hemisphere tropical cyclones: A critical analysis of regional characteristics

Southern hemisphere tropical cyclones: A critical analysis of regional characteristics

Oceanic response to the consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto (2019) in the Sargasso Sea

Interdisciplinary knowledge exchange across scales in a globally changing marine environment

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