Ocean-atmosphere circulation controls on integrated meteorological and agricultural drought over Iran

Rezaei, Abolfazl

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126928

Cited by 29 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…2), for both the whole MENA and the Middle East regions, the correlation patterns are approximately identical, signifying that the long-term memory of the variables over the area from North Africa to the Middle East is controlled by the same sources. These sources are most probably the large-scale oceanatmospheric circulations related to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans such as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), and AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) (Notaro et al, 2015;Ahmadi et al, 2019;Alizadeh-Choobari and Adibi, 2019;Rezaei and Gurdak, 2020;Rezaei, 2021) which indicates that these processes are realistically represented in the GLENS simulations consistent with the observations. The multidecadal periodicities in the precipitation and temperature variables over Iran in the Middle East have been demonstrated to be more affected by the low-frequency oscillations of PDO and AMO, respectively (Rezaei and Gurdak, 2020;Rezaei, 2021).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 73%

“…These sources are most probably the large-scale oceanatmospheric circulations related to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans such as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), and AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) (Notaro et al, 2015;Ahmadi et al, 2019;Alizadeh-Choobari and Adibi, 2019;Rezaei and Gurdak, 2020;Rezaei, 2021) which indicates that these processes are realistically represented in the GLENS simulations consistent with the observations. The multidecadal periodicities in the precipitation and temperature variables over Iran in the Middle East have been demonstrated to be more affected by the low-frequency oscillations of PDO and AMO, respectively (Rezaei and Gurdak, 2020;Rezaei, 2021). There are strong in-phase correlations between the dust and temperature and near-surface wind speed where right-pointing arrows are observed in their LWTC, signifying that the dust concentration over the region increases with the temperature and 10m wind speed.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 73%

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Future dust concentration over the Middle East and North Africa region under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios

Mousavi

Karami

Tilmes

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the dustiest region, in the world and understanding the projected changes in the dust concentrations in the region is crucially important. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) geoengineering aims to reduce global warming, by increasing the reflection of a small amount of the incoming solar radiation to space, and hence reducing the global surface temperatures. Using the output from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble Project (GLENS) project, we show a reduction in the dust concentration in the MENA region under both global warming (RCP8.5) and GLENS-SAI scenarios compared to the present-day climate. This reduction over the MENA region is stronger under the SAI scenario, while for dry season (e.g., summer with the strongest dust events), more reduction has been projected for the global warming scenario. The maximum reduction of the dust concentrations in the MENA region (under both the global warming and SAI) is due to the weakening of the dust hotspots emissions from the sources of the Middle East. Further analysis of the differences in the surface temperature, soil water, precipitation, leaf area index, and near surface wind speed provides some insights into the underlying physical mechanisms that determine the changes in the future dust concentrations in the MENA region. We also conduct wavelet analysis using the time series of the monthly, seasonal, and annual climate changes under the SAI simulation to identify the dust relationship with the considered variables. Our findings show that a stronger reduction of the dust concentration in the MENA region under SAI relative to the RCP8.5 scenario is a complex interplay with temperature reduction, precipitation, soil water and leaf area index enhancement, as well as weakening of near surface winds compared to the present-day climate.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 73%

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 73%

Future dust concentration over the Middle East and North Africa region under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios

Mousavi

Karami

Tilmes

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…For more details of WTC, the readers are referred to Torrence and Compo (1998), Torrence and Webster (1999), Grinsted et al . (2004), Labat (2008), and Rezaei (2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wavelet coherence of monsoon and large‐scale climate variabilities with precipitation in Pakistan

Hussain

Cao

Ali³

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Monsoon and its teleconnection with earth system internal processes affect the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and water resources. In this paper, the wavelet coherence analysis has been utilized, a time and frequency domain methodology for comparing the spectral features of two independent time series superior to linear approaches. This technique is used to capture the significant modes of variabilities in the Indian Summer Monsoon Index (ISMI) and large-scale climate indices (CIs) between ocean-atmosphere oscillations, like Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO) over Pakistan. Precipitation time series during 1960-2016 revealed significant interannual coherences with ISMI, whereas the remaining CIs

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“…Global teleconnections have received wide attention due to the climate-associated variabilities in Pakistan (Del Rio et al 2013, Moon et Sharma et al 2023). Whereas variability of hydro-climatic associations has been widely studied using a variety of global teleconnections (Das et al 2020, Chang et al 2019, Su et al 2019, Li et al 2020, Rezaei 2021, Hussain et al 2022c. Such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Athira et al 2022, Hussain et al 2022b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan

Hussain,

Ali

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In recent decades, temperature variations have significantly affected the ecosystem and human livelihood in Pakistan. The wavelet analysis is employed to identify the associations between regional temperature change and global teleconnections, i.e., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), Pacific/North American Index (PNA), North Pacific Pattern (NP), Western Pacific Index (WP), and Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP). This paper first uses monotonic modified Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope estimator to compute the temperature changes in Pakistan and its homogenous climatic regions during 1960–2020. It is found that the temperature in Pakistan has increased significantly at 0.23 oC/decade in the last 62 years, which is also higher than the global average increase. This increase is more evident in region IV and V in spring at 0.63 and 0.43 oC/decade respectively, followed by summer and autumn. Temperature changes in Pakistan and its sub-regions are mainly associated with NP, WP and WHWP with higher mean significant coherences. Overall, temperature changes are significantly influenced by multiple interactions of global teleconnections, and these combinations indicate that the integrated influence of teleconnections can better explain the regional temperature changes. The teleconnections with broader significant influence over Pakistan are NP+WP+WHWP, followed by Pacific-based (ENSO, PDO, and PNA), and Atlantic-based (AMO, AO, and NAO) indices as revealed by the mean significant coherences of 0.82, 0.82 and 0.72 respectively. Annually, AMO, TNA and WHWP showed significant correlation with higher magnitudes of 0.44, 0.42 and 0.20 respectively, indicating the modulation effect of these teleconnections on temperature changes over Pakistan. The combined impacts from the various teleconnections represent a considerable advancement in the accuracy of significant temperature variations over the country.

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Ocean-atmosphere circulation controls on integrated meteorological and agricultural drought over Iran

Cited by 29 publications

References 54 publications

Future dust concentration over the Middle East and North Africa region under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios

Future dust concentration over the Middle East and North Africa region under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios

Wavelet coherence of monsoon and large‐scale climate variabilities with precipitation in Pakistan

Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan

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