Ocean Circulation Signatures of North Pacific Decadal Variability

Wills, Robert C. J.; Battisti, David S.; Proistosescu, Cristian; Thompson, LuAnne; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Armour, Kyle C.

doi:10.1029/2018gl080716

Cited by 26 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Studies of simulations using CMIP5 models show the midlatitude portion of the PDO to be a robust pattern of decadal variability across the models (e.g., Newman et al 2016;Farneti 2017;Wills et al 2019a). Most models feature PDO variability in the midlatitudes that is comparable in amplitude to that observed (see, e.g., Fig.…”

Section: 31mentioning

confidence: 83%

“…The NAO and PNA are the leading patterns of atmospheric variability on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. They are intrinsic to the atmosphere and its underlying geometry (their existence does not depend on interactions with the ocean) and their power spectra are nearly white on time scales longer than about 10 days (Wunsch 1999;Feldstein 2000;Wills et al 2019a). However, these patterns give rise to changes in the ocean that, in turn, contribute to the low-frequency (seasonal and longer time scales) power in the NAO and PNA, as described below.…”

Section: The Waxing and Waning Of The Indian Ocean Dipolementioning

confidence: 99%

“…2) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION Summary: Many model studies have arrived at a common description of the anatomy of the PDO (see, e.g., Schneider et al 2002;Zhang and Delworth 2015;Newman et al 2016;Wills et al 2019a) that is supported by analyses of observations (e.g., Frankignoul and Hasselmann 1977;Miller et al 1997Miller et al , 1998Qiu 2003;Kwon et al 2010;Wills et al 2018). These studies conclude that the PDO is a phenomenon that is intrinsic to the midlatitudes and is due to stochastic atmospheric forcing of the ocean in the form of variability in the Aleutian low-the prominent lobe of the PNA that resides over the North Pacific Ocean.…”

Section: ) Decadal Variability In Subpolar Atlanticmentioning

confidence: 99%

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100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Dynamics of Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

Battisti

Vimont

Kirtman

2019

Meteorological Monographs

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In situ observation networks and reanalyses products of the state of the atmosphere and upper ocean show well-defined, large-scale patterns of coupled climate variability on time scales ranging from seasons to several decades. We summarize these phenomena and their physics, which have been revealed by analysis of observations, by experimentation with uncoupled and coupled atmosphere and ocean models with a hierarchy of complexity, and by theoretical developments. We start with a discussion of the seasonal cycle in the equatorial tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which are clearly affected by coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. We then discuss the tropical phenomena that only exist because of the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean: the Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, and a phenomenon analogous to ENSO in the Atlantic. For ENSO, we further discuss the sources of irregularity and asymmetry between warm and cold phases of ENSO, and the response of ENSO to forcing. Fundamental to variability on all time scales in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are preferred patterns of uncoupled atmospheric variability that exist independent of any changes in the state of the ocean, land, or distribution of sea ice. These patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern; they are most active in wintertime, with a temporal spectrum that is nearly white. Stochastic variability in the NPO, PNA, and NAO force the ocean on days to interannual times scales by way of turbulent heat exchange and Ekman transport, and on decadal and longer time scales by way of wind stress forcing. The PNA is partially responsible for the Pacific decadal oscillation; the NAO is responsible for an analogous phenomenon in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. In models, stochastic forcing by the NAO also gives rise to variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that is partially responsible for multidecadal anomalies in the North Atlantic climate known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO); observations do not yet exist to adequately determine the physics of the AMO. We review the progress that has been made in the past 50 years in understanding each of these phenomena and the implications for short-term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate forecasts. We end with a brief discussion of advances of things that are on the horizon, under the rug, and over the rainbow.

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Section: 31mentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: The Waxing and Waning Of The Indian Ocean Dipolementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: ) Decadal Variability In Subpolar Atlanticmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Dynamics of Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

Battisti

Vimont

Kirtman

2019

Meteorological Monographs

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“…A better characterization of how these changes depend on lengthscale and timescale is needed in order to understand the connection of these changes with changes in the storm tracks and with changes in the climatological stationary waves. As midlatitude atmospheric variability is crucial in driving SST variability on longer timescales [151][152][153][154], future work should also investigate how these changes impact low-frequency atmosphere-ocean variability.…”

Section: Open Questions and Path Forwardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northern Hemisphere Stationary Waves in a Changing Climate

Wills

White

Levine

2019

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of Review Stationary waves are planetary-scale longitudinal variations in the time-averaged atmospheric circulation. Here, we consider the projected response of Northern Hemisphere stationary waves to climate change in winter and summer. We discuss how the response varies across different metrics, identify robust responses, and review proposed mechanisms. Recent Findings Climate models project shifts in the prevailing wind patterns, with corresponding impacts on regional precipitation, temperature, and extreme events. Recent work has improved our understanding of the links between stationary waves and regional climate and identified robust stationary wave responses to climate change, which include an increased zonal lengthscale in winter, a poleward shift of the wintertime circulation over the Pacific, a weakening of monsoonal circulations, and an overall weakening of stationary wave circulations, particularly their divergent component and quasi-stationary disturbances. Summary Numerous factors influence Northern Hemisphere stationary waves, and mechanistic theories exist for only a few aspects of the stationary wave response to climate change. Idealized studies have proven useful for understanding the climate responses of particular atmospheric circulation features and should be a continued focus of future research. Keywords Stationary waves. Climate change. Rossby waves. Climate dynamics. Atmospheric general circulation This article is part of the Topical Collection on Mid-latitude Processes and Climate Change

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“…When the Aleutian Low is centered over the western Bering Sea, southerly winds inhibit the southward expansion of sea ice in the eastern Bering Sea; when the Aleutian Low is shifted further east to the Gulf of Alaska, sea ice can advance . Since wind stress at the sea surface is an important driver of ocean circulation, changes in the strength of the Aleutian Low have also been shown to influence ocean circulation in the region of the North Pacific subarctic gyre, of which the AS forms the northern boundary current (e.g., Pickart et al, 2009;Wills et al, 2019). Accordingly, we suggest that, during MIS 11, the strength of the Aleutian Low exerted a control on the advection of North Pacific Water to Site U1339, with increased transport of NPW occurring when the Aleutian Low intensified, due to the influence of wind stress curl.…”

Section: Controls On Sea Icementioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-proxy reconstruction of sea ice extent and primary productivity during Marine Isotope Stage 11 in the Bering Sea

Thompson¹

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Grain size is an important textural property of sediments and is widely used in paleoenvironmental studies as a means to infer changes in the sedimentary environment. However, grain size parameters are not always easy to interpret, without a full understanding of the factors that influence grain size. Here, we measure grain size in sediment cores from the Bering slope and the Umnak Plateau, and review the effectiveness of different grain size parameters as proxies for sediment transport, current strength, and productivity, during a past warm interval (Marine Isotope Stage 11, 424-374 ka). In general, sediments in the Bering Sea are hemipelagic, making them ideal deposits for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, but there is strong evidence in the grain size distribution for contourite deposits between ~408-400 ka at the slope sites, suggesting a change in bottom current transport at this time. We show that the grain size of coarse (>150 µm) terrigenous sediment can be used effectively as a proxy for ice rafting, although it is not possible to distinguish between iceberg and sea ice rafting processes, based on grain size alone. We find that the mean grain size of bulk sediments can be used to infer changes in productivity on

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Ocean Circulation Signatures of North Pacific Decadal Variability

Cited by 26 publications

References 63 publications

100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Dynamics of Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Dynamics of Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

Northern Hemisphere Stationary Waves in a Changing Climate

A multi-proxy reconstruction of sea ice extent and primary productivity during Marine Isotope Stage 11 in the Bering Sea

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