Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge

Lin, I. I.; Goñi, Gustavo; Knaff, John A.; Forbes, Cristina; Ali, M. M.

doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0214-5

Cited by 102 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…We are presently able to predict the track of TCs (100-200 km error) with good accuracy within 12 to 24 h (Goerss, 2000;Roy and Kovordányi, 2012), but we are still far from forecasting the intensity of the storm (Emanuel, 1999;De Maria et al, 2005;Lin et al, 2013) and understanding its development (Montgomery et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of thermal structure and conditions for overshooting of tropical and extratropical cyclones with GPS radio occultation

et al. 2015

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Abstract. The thermal structure of tropical cyclones (TCs) in different ocean basins is studied using global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) measurements co-located with TCs' best tracks. The objective of this work is to understand the mutual influence of TCs and atmospheric parameters in different regions. We selected more than 20 000 GPS RO profiles co-located with TCs in a time window of 6 h and space window of 600 km from the TC center in the period 2001-2012 and classified them by intensity of the cyclone and by ocean basin. The results show that TCs have different characteristics depending on the basin, which affects the cloud top altitude and the TC thermal structure which usually shows a negative temperature anomaly near the cloud top altitude. In the Northern Hemisphere ocean basins, the temperature anomaly becomes positive above the cloud top while in the Southern Hemisphere ocean basins it stays negative up to about 25 km in altitude.Furthermore, in the Southern Hemisphere the storms reach higher cloud top altitudes than in the Northern Hemisphere ocean basins, indicating that possible overshootings overpass the climatological tropopause more deeply at extratropical latitudes. The comparison of the TC thermal structure with the respective monthly mean tropopause altitude allows for a detailed analysis of the probability for possible overshooting. While the co-locations between GPS ROs and TC tracks are well distributed in all the ocean basins, conditions for possible overshootings are found to be more frequent in the Southern Hemisphere basins and in the northern Indian Ocean basin. However, the number of possible overshootings for high intensity storms (i.e., TC categories 1-5) is the highest in the western Pacific Ocean basin.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of thermal structure and conditions for overshooting of tropical and extratropical cyclones with GPS radio occultation

et al. 2015

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“…Lin et al [5] observed that hurricane Rita when encountered with a high TCHP region lead to large storm surge and inundation. They showed that this hurricane passed over two prominent warm ocean eddies (characterized by positive SSHA of 10-40 cm) in the Gulf of Mexico, just prior to its landfall.…”

Section: Tchp and Cyclone Pressure Drop And Storm Surgementioning

confidence: 99%

“…TCHP is generally reflected in the altimeter-derived oceanic eddies and sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs). Recently, Ali et al [5] studied the statistical relationship between cyclone intensity (CI) and SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO; 30°S-30°N, 30°E-120°E) and concluded that satellite-derived SST is not a good indicator of CI. They suggested a more accurate parameterization of SST throughout the lifetime of a cyclone, for example OHC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Importance of Ocean Heat Content for Cyclone Studies

Modave¹,

Shokar²

2014

J Oceanogr Mar Res

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The physical process involved from formation to dissipation of any cyclone is very complex in nature. Thus, accurate and timely prediction of cyclone intensity and track still remain as challenging scientific problems. Though presently available cyclone prediction models have improved our understanding about many physical processes from cyclone formation to dissipation, some are still unresolved. The input parameters that used into the models as a source of energy for the cyclones need to be reconsidered. Model estimate the energy for cyclones as latent heat release through evaporation computed using only Sea Surface Temperature (SST). However, the energy in the ocean for cyclone is available in the upper layers of the oceans rather than in the skin layer represented by SST. Therefore we examined the importance of heat content of the upper ocean in estimating four important aspects of cyclones (i) pressure drop, (ii) track change, (iii) intensity and (iv) storm surge height. The results obtained during the series of analysis emphasized that the thermal structure of the upper ocean is more critical and sensitive predictor for cyclones compared to SST, which need to be incorporated in numerical models for better and accurate forecasting.

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“…In addition, several studies noted that CIs are positively correlated with positive SSHAs and negatively correlated with negative SSHAs [Goni and Trinanes, 2003;Ali et al, 2007;Lin et al, 2009;. Lin et al [2013] showed how ocean subsurface warm features like eddies are critical for the sudden intensification of cyclones.…”

Section: Concerns About Stem Education Restructurementioning

confidence: 99%

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union Volume 94, Number 19, 7 May 2013

2013

EoS Transactions

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Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge

Cited by 102 publications

References 55 publications

Characterization of thermal structure and conditions for overshooting of tropical and extratropical cyclones with GPS radio occultation

Characterization of thermal structure and conditions for overshooting of tropical and extratropical cyclones with GPS radio occultation

Importance of Ocean Heat Content for Cyclone Studies

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union Volume 94, Number 19, 7 May 2013

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