Ocena Vremena Pojave Oticaja U Hidrološkim Modelima

Abstract

Hydrological models are developed to simulate the catchment response from the meteorological data and have numerous practical applications. The hydrologic models are also frequently applied in the assessment of the climate change impacts to provide hydrologic simulations with projections of climate variables under some specified climate change scenario. To obtain reliable projections, robust hydrologic models are required. Model efficiency is usually quantified in terms of the performance measures or hydrologic signatures such as mean flows, flow duration curve or seasonal runoff distribution. The timing of runoff is rarely considered as a signature although it is of crucial importance when assessing the effects of climate change such as the earlier occurrence of floods. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the hydrologic model for the Toplica River basin in reproducing different signatures including the runoff timing. The results show good model performance, which is, however, not supported by the agreement of the observed and simulated runoff timing indicators. We therefore strongly suggest enclosure of these timing indicators in a model evaluation procedure, especially for the models intended for assessment of climate change impacts.