Odds Ratio Forecasts Increase Precautionary Action for Extreme Weather Events

LeClerc, Jared E.; Joslyn, Susan

doi:10.1175/wcas-d-12-00013.1

Cited by 21 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…So, it may be that subconsciously people understand the uncertainty in the provided information, pushing them to adopt their behaviour more often when warnings are inconsistent in text compared to when they are not. This argumentation is also supported by other research suggesting that people prefer weather forecasts providing uncertainty information (Morss et al, ) or that forecasts with uncertainty can enhance the preparation of mitigation measures (LeClerc and Joslyn, ). However, these conclusions have to be treated with caution, as the findings show no such pattern when participants evaluated the quality of warning.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Dealing with inconsistent weather warnings: effects on warning quality and intended actions

Weyrich

Scolobig

Patt

2019

Meteorological Applications

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In the past four decades, the private weather forecast sector has been developing next to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, resulting in additional weather providers. This plurality has led to a critical duplication of public weather warnings. For a specific event, different providers disseminate warnings that are more or less severe, or that are visualized differently, leading to inconsistent information that could impact perceived warning quality and response. So far, past research has not studied the influence of inconsistent information from multiple providers. This knowledge gap is addressed here. An inconsistency matrix was developed and employed to categorize the level of inconsistency across multiple warnings. The matrix provides warning pairs inconsistent in visualization, text or both. A survey experiment was conducted in Switzerland (N = 1,335). The results show that half of the people who received warnings from different providers for the same event indicated that these were inconsistent. The evaluation of warning quality and intended actions in a decision scenario characterized by two severe rainfall warnings shows the negative impacts of inconsistency. For example, consistent warnings are least confusing and inconsistent visual and textual warnings are most confusing. However, there are no significant differences in the effects of inconsistent textual information compared to inconsistent visual information on warning quality and intended actions. These findings offer empirical justification to enhance co‐operation between public and private weather providers. To improve warnings, the providers should find an agreement to be consistent either in the text or in the visualization.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Dealing with inconsistent weather warnings: effects on warning quality and intended actions

Weyrich

Scolobig

Patt

2019

Meteorological Applications

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“…For instance, when precautionary action is required at fairly low event likelihoods (e.g., 20% chance), odds ratios, which describe the increase in odds in the present situation over climatological odds, may be preferable. (50) In sum, the research reported here suggests that people can be fairly tolerant of FAs in weatherrelated decision tasks, as long as they are also provided an uncertainty forecast. Clearly, the decision processes underlying people's compliance with warnings is complicated, involving many factors, only some of which were tested here.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 54%

“…Although this variable was not tested in the experiment reported here, previous research suggests that benefits may depend on a match between uncertainty expression and the context. For instance, when precautionary action is required at fairly low event likelihoods (e.g., 20% chance), odds ratios, which describe the increase in odds in the present situation over climatological odds, may be preferable …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather‐Related Decision Making

2015

Self Cite

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Despite improvements in forecasting extreme weather events, noncompliance with weather warnings among the public remains a problem. Although there are likely many reasons for noncompliance with weather warnings, one important factor might be people's past experiences with false alarms. The research presented here explores the role of false alarms in weather-related decision making. Over a series of trials, participants used an overnight low temperature forecast and advice from a decision aid to decide whether to apply salt treatment to a town's roads to prevent icy conditions or take the risk of withholding treatment, which resulted in a large penalty when freezing temperatures occurred. The decision aid gave treatment recommendations, some of which were false alarms, i.e., treatment was recommended but observed temperatures were above freezing. The rate at which the advice resulted in false alarms was manipulated between groups. Results suggest that very high and very low false alarm rates led to inferior decision making, but that lowering the false alarm rate slightly did not significantly affect compliance or decision quality. However, adding a probabilistic uncertainty estimate in the forecasts improved both compliance and decision quality. These findings carry implications about how weather warnings should be communicated to the public.

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“…Therefore, multimodality might be a beneficial approach to communicate uncertain information because people appear to respond well to multiple displays of the same information (Spiegelhalter et al 2011). In a similar example, LeClerc and Joslyn (2012) found that probabilities were useful in normal weather conditions, whereas odds performed better in situations with low probabilities and extreme conditions compared with decisions made in such conditions based exclusively on deterministic forecasts.…”

Section: ) Thorough Use Of Multimodal Information In Communicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Do Laypeople Evaluate the Degree of Certainty in a Weather Report? A Case Study of the Use of the Web Service yr.no

Sivle

Kolstø

Hansen

et al. 2014

Weather, Climate, and Society

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Many people depend on and use weather forecasts to plan their schedules. In so doing, ordinary people with no expertise in meteorology are frequently called upon to interpret uncertainty with respect to weather forecasts. With this in mind, this study addresses two main questions: 1) How do laypeople interpret online weather reports with respect to their degree of certainty and how is previous knowledge drawn upon in this interpretation? and 2) How do laypeople integrate information in weather reports to determine their degree of certainty? This qualitative study is based on semistructured interviews with 21 Norwegians. The results show the following: (a) only a portion of uncertainty information was used, (b) symbols were sometimes ascribed different meanings than intended, and (c) interpretations were affected by local experiences with wind direction and forecast quality. The informants' prior knowledge was found to prevail in the event of a conflict with forecast information, and an expected range of uncertainty was often inferred into single-valued forecasts. Additionally, (d) interpretations were affected by the integration of information used to predict the time and location of precipitation. Informants typically interpreted the degree of certainty differently (more or less uncertain) than was intended. Clearer presentation of uncertainty information, a clear intent of all nuances in information, a thorough use of multimodal information, and consideration of users' needs can help improve communication of forecast uncertainty. The diversity of user approaches makes forecast uncertainty more difficult to communicate and provides possible explanations for why communicating uncertainty is challenging.

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Odds Ratio Forecasts Increase Precautionary Action for Extreme Weather Events

Cited by 21 publications

References 23 publications

Dealing with inconsistent weather warnings: effects on warning quality and intended actions

Dealing with inconsistent weather warnings: effects on warning quality and intended actions

The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather‐Related Decision Making

How Do Laypeople Evaluate the Degree of Certainty in a Weather Report? A Case Study of the Use of the Web Service yr.no

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