Official Crime Statistics: Their use and Interpretation

Abstract

In this paper we consider the data used by economists to estimate economic models of crime. We discuss the main sources of Of®cial Crime Statistics in the United Kingdom, Europe and the United States, and raise questions about the reliability of these data for estimation and forecasting purposes. In particular, we focus on the disparity between crime rates suggested by victimisation surveys and the rates suggested by Of®cial Statistics, and show that this is primarily a consequence of under-reporting by victims and under-recording by the police. We conclude our analysis by considering the factors that in¯uence the under-reporting of crime.

Enforcement Spillovers

“…Conceptually, our approach differs from other work on law enforcement as we study the link between enforcement and 'quit decisions' of those who violate the law (the decisions of households who currently evade licence fees and stop doing so) rather than the link with crime. By focusing on quit decisions, we avoid typical problems with the measurement of crime (MacDonald, 2002) as well as the possibility of crime displacement (Jacob et al, 2007;Yang, 2008): if a local increase in enforcement has a positive spillover on quit rates, this captures an increase in compliance that cannot be due to the relocation of unlawful activities to other places.…”

An empirical analysis of organized crime, corruption and economic growth

“…As emphasised by MacDonald (2002), all judicial-based measures of crime are generally subject to under-reporting. This may be especially true for offences committed by criminal cartels, whose use of intimidation and violence can undermine the process and outcome of judicial investigations, particularly in regions where the crime syndicate wields a high degree of power and influence.…”

La Percepción Social De La Inseguridad en Costa Rica, El Salvador Y Nicaragua

“…Sensationalist treatment of violence and delinquent events can generate a climate of fear and a strong feeling of vulnerability in the population, wich is not always 1 Ver también : Hofer, 2000;MacDonald, 2002;Maguirre, 2002y Muncie, 1996 real, or corresponding to the observed level of violence. (Arriagada y Godoy, 1991: 10).…”