Oil palm survival under climate change in Malaysia with future basal stem rot assessments

Abstract

The high economic return from sales of palm oil is because of its inclusion in a vast range of commodities, and Malaysia is the second largest producer after Indonesia. However, increasing cultivation of oil palm has a negative environmental impact threatening sustainability. Basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense is of major concern to sustainability of the palm oil industry. CLIMEX, a computer model, provided suitability‐for‐future‐growth maps of oil palm in Malaysia. The present study used this model to determine how climate affects oil palm growth, providing quantitative scenarios of future oil palm mortality and BSR incidence in Malaysia under a 'no change' presumption. Unsuitable climate for oil palm will make the plant susceptible to disease. High and low levels of oil palm mortality and BSR incidence were predicted from the CLIMEX model in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah, respectively, by 2100. Sabah represented the most sustainable region in Malaysia for palm oil production followed by Sarawak. Overall, climate change will not affect the incidence of BSR greatly until 2050 but the situation will deteriorate thereafter. These scenarios can be monitored for accuracy in the future. Methods to ameliorate climate change effects on oil palm and concomitantly reducing BSR incidence are required. Palm oil production may be unsustainable after 2050, and urgent action must be taken.

Oil palm in the 2020s and beyond: challenges and solutions

“…It has increased over recent decades due to its spread from infection foci at a greater rate, following repeated cycles of crop planting on infested sites. In Malaysia, BSR is often reported in young plants and seedlings, whereas previously only mature oil palms were infected (Paterson 2019a , 2020c ). By the time an oil palm stand is halfway through its ca.…”

“…Paterson ( 2020c , d ) considered BSR in Malaysia and Indonesia respectively and in the regions of the countries. Disease incidence was much higher in peninsular Malaysia than in Sarawak, and especially Sabah.…”

“…Climate change threatens the sustainability of crop production via factors such as temperature, rainfall and disease patterns (Rosenzweig et al 2008 ). However, the likely effects on tropical crops remain less well known, especially in SE Asia, Africa and Latin America (Ghini et al 2011 ; Feeley et al 2017 ; Sarkar et al 2020 ), although recent research has started to address the situation for oil palm (Paterson 2019a , b , 2020b , c , 2021a , b ; Paterson and Lima 2018 ; Paterson et al 2015 , 2017 ; Sarkar et al 2020 ; Shabani et al 2012 ), as discussed below. Climate change effects on natural systems require prediction to mitigate consequential changes in diversity and ecosystem function (Feeley et al 2017 ).…”

“…Simulation modelling to determine suitable climate scenarios for growing oil palm (Paterson et al 2017 ; Paterson 2019a ), were employed to estimate how climate suitability for oil palm growth would change the estimated mortality rate from unsuitable climatic conditions. Predicted percentage oil palm mortality was determined in (a) SE Asia (Paterson 2020b ) and (b) Latin America and extrapolated to Malaysia and Indonesia (Paterson 2020c ) (Fig. 2 a, b).…”

Effects of Some Weather Parameters on Oil Palm Production in the Peninsular Malaysia

“…As of 2019, the total planted area was 2,769,003 hectares and slightly declined to 2,700,004 hectares which is attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic (MPOB, 2019) (Figure 7). Cultivation of oil palm vital to Malaysia's economic health, being the second largest exporter of palm oil globally [4,5,11,16,27,35,58,59]. The palm oil sector employs a huge workforce, with a combined employee number of 1.16 million individuals in Malaysia, accounting for 40.45% of agricultural employment [35].…”