Oil price fluctuation, macroeconomic indicators and poverty in Nigeria

Agu, Osmond Chigozie; Nyatanga, Phocenah

doi:10.31920/2075-6534/2020/10n1a3

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…Domestic pricing from the previous period have had a major positive impact on current domestic prices. This result is consistent with other studies that examined the effect of oil price shocks on domestic prices in Nigeria, such as Agu and Nyatanga (2020) and Ibrahim (2015).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Recent studies have focused on the effect of oil price shocks on domestic pricing and inflation in Nigeria, providing diverse insights into the matter. For instance, Agu and Nyatanga (2021) leveraged annual data spanning from 1970 to 2017 and employed ARDL models to scrutinise the effects of anticipated oil prices on inflation in Nigeria. Their findings indicated that expected oil prices exerted a favourable influence on Nigerian inflation.…”

Section: Review Of Related Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In countries dependent on oil and primary commodities, particularly in Nigeria, recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have exacerbated business cycle instability and turned them into a major driver of inflation (Agu & Nyatanga, 2021). Although Nigeria is a net exporter of crude oil, it also significantly imports refined petroleum products to meet domestic demand, which predisposes the economy to imported inflation (Oriakhi & Ahuru, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Oil price shocks pass‐through to domestic prices in Nigeria

Orekoya,

Adeniyi,

Tijani

2024

OPEC Energy Review

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The study investigated the potential non‐linear impacts of fluctuations in oil prices on domestic prices in Nigeria. Utilising the non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the study revealed the presence of asymmetry in the behaviour of domestic prices. Both forms of oil price shocks were observed to have a negative influence on domestic prices in the short term, with only positive oil price shocks demonstrating statistical significance. However, in the long run, a distinct pattern emerged where a decrease in oil prices significantly affected domestic prices. Additionally, analysis of VAR impulse response showed a consistently negative reaction of domestic prices to oil price shocks, falling below the steady‐state equilibrium. The study concluded that changes in oil prices, in conjunction with other macroeconomic variables, affected the prices of domestic goods in Nigeria, whether in the short or long term. This underscored the complexity of Nigeria's economic landscape. Consequently, it is advisable to prudently invest excess revenue generated from rising oil prices to mitigate the adverse impacts of negative oil shocks on the economy.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Review Of Related Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Oil price shocks pass‐through to domestic prices in Nigeria

Orekoya,

Adeniyi,

Tijani

2024

OPEC Energy Review

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“…The Maximum Likelihood Cointegration was used by Agu and Nyatanga [20] to examine the connection between Nigeria's fiscal and monetary policies and economic growth. The study discovered evidence for a long-run connection between economic growth, level of openness, government spending, and broad money supply.…”

Section: Given Thatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Public Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Assessing Recurrent Expenditure’s Neutrality and Monetary Policy Interaction

Udonwa,

Effiong

2023

SAJSSE

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In this study, we explored the influence of public spending on economic growth in Nigeria by testing the neutrality/non-neutrality of recurrent expenditure, as well as checking for the effect of interaction of the two expenditure components with monetary policy (interest rate) to see how they would influence economic growth. Data which covers the period 1981 to 2021 were analyzed using the technique of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which was selected based on the fact that our variables were stationary at mixed order of levels and first difference. From the ARDL bounds test, the study revealed that there is a long-run relationship among the variables in the model which prompts the estimation of the error correction model. From the result, the findings suggest that recurrent expenditure exerts a positive and significant effect on economic growth, thereby signifying the non-neutrality of the recurrent expenditure component on economic growth. Further, the interactive terms indicates that an interaction of recurrent expenditure and interest rate on economic growth generated a negative effect though its one-period lag yields a positive and significant effect. Also, the long-run result indicates that recurrent expenditure yielded a positive but insignificant effect, thereby indicating the validity of the recurrent expenditure in the long-run. This is further confirmed as it exerted a negative but insignificant effect on economic growth when interacted with monetary policy. The policy implication of the findings centres on the fact that recurrent expenditure can only be non-neutral in influencing the macroeconomy just in the short-run.

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“…The aim of this study therefore is to ascertain the opinions of stakeholders within the six AOECs, namely, Nigeria, Cameroun, Gabon (Sub-Saharan Africa) and Egypt, Algeria, Libya (Non-Sub-Saharan Africa) on the future of AOECs, as to know the factors that can help to reshape the AOECs after COVID-19. The opinions of these stakeholders are very essential in solving both the problems of hunger and the economic crisis (Agu, Nyatanga, 2020;OECD, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Restructuring and Reshaping Africa Oil Exporting Countries Post COVID-19 – A Participatory Development Strategy Approach

Agu

Omolade

2022

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

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Research Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has the capacity of severely disrupting economic activities and triggering economic crisis, especially in Africa’s Oil Exporting Countries (AOECs). The African economy is likely to be the worst hit, especially the Africa Oil Exporting Countries (AOECs), as they have been majorly low income countries and considering the fall in oil prices, as oil revenue forms a major source of their revenue and government expenditure. Purpose: This study explored the stakeholders’ opinions on reshaping and restructuring the economies of six African Oil Exporting Countries, with the aim of ascertaining the views of academics within the six AOECs, as regards the economic revival post COVID-19. Research methodology: The study utilized the Participatory Development Strategy Approach (PDSA), employing the Cronbach Alpha Reliability test, Estimated Response Rate (ERR) and Explanatory Factor Analysis (EFA) to extract opinions from 1,260 stakeholders within the six AOECs. Results: The results show that the stakeholders are of the opinion that the solutions to the rebuilding of AOECs are multi-faceted, suggesting a mixture of both government and private institutions in varying degrees. Some of the respondents favoured going back to agriculture and agribusiness to revamp their economies. Novelty: The study utilized an uncommon methodology; the Participatory Development Strategy Approach (PDSA) to achieve its objective. The PDSA is meant to allow the affected stakeholders’ participation in the policy making process. The respondents were purely academics, as it is believed that academics are the sources of hope of solving myriads of human challenges such as hunger and economic crisis.

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Oil price fluctuation, macroeconomic indicators and poverty in Nigeria

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Oil price shocks pass‐through to domestic prices in Nigeria

Oil price shocks pass‐through to domestic prices in Nigeria

Public Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Assessing Recurrent Expenditure’s Neutrality and Monetary Policy Interaction

Restructuring and Reshaping Africa Oil Exporting Countries Post COVID-19 – A Participatory Development Strategy Approach

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