Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Outcomes; Fresh Evidences from a scenario-based NK-DSGE analysis for oil-exporting countries

Amiri, Hossein; Sayadi, Mohammad; Mamipour, Siab

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102262

Cited by 33 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…This demonstrates the resilience and reliability of the model. In addition, the estimation of dynamic parameters is realized by Bayesian estimation using GDP of China from 2000 to 2020 as the real variables (Table 2), refering to Amiri et al (2021), Cao et al (2021), and Liu and He (2021). And we set the autoregressive coefficients of the exogenous shock variables to a normal distribution and the random disturbance terms to an Inv-Gamma distribution, referring to Smets and Wouters (2007).…”

Section: Parameter Calibration and Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of climate change policies on financial stability of China

Meng,

Wang,

Ding

2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Climate transition risks pose growing financial stability concerns, but research on quantifying climate policy impacts remains underexplored. This paper helps address this gap by evaluating how carbon tax (CT) and green supporting factor (GSF) influence China’s financial stability. An innovative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model incorporating the banking sector is developed to quantify transmission channels, improving on conceptual studies. It reveals that more intense climate policies heighten impacts on financial stability, with CT improving it but GSF hampering it in the long run. However, both policies negatively affect stability initially, albeit insignificantly. These diagnostics underscore calibrating policy intensities and sequencing to balance climate and economic objectives. Furthermore, this study reveals asymmetric effects on polluting and non-polluting enterprises, with the former seeing reduced output and lending but the latter gaining. The differentiated approach proposed, tailored to firm emissions levels, provides key insights for unlocking smooth green transitions while maintaining financial system resilience. The paper makes important contributions by bringing together climate policies, adaptation, and financial stability. The findings offer insights into achieving a smooth climate transition while maintaining financial stability. Specific implications include starting with low CT on the heaviest emitters, gradually lowering risk weights for green lending, and using public incentives and investment to aid polluting firms’ transition. This study offers valuable quantitative insights for developing country-specific climate financial risk policies.

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Section: Parameter Calibration and Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of climate change policies on financial stability of China

Meng,

Wang,

Ding

2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…As a result, changes in the price of oil are crucial in defining both the macroeconomic antecedents and the values of the housing market. The association of oil price shocks with macroeconomic antecedents such as performance was first revealed by Hamilton (1983), various research studies including Amiri et al (2021), Haug and Basher (2019) and Hou et al (2016) in oil exporting countries, Backus and Crucini (2000) in eight The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, Balli et al (2021) in China and Russia, Buetzer et al (2012) in 44 advanced and emerging countries, Delpachitra et al (2020), in the Canadian economy, Esfahani et al (2013) and Farzanegan and Markwardt (2009) in Iranian countries and Jafari and Golkhandan (2021) in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) countries have proved the impact on various macroeconomic factors. Nevertheless, none of them have concentrated on how fluctuations in the price of oil affect housing market values in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, to the author's knowledge, this is the first research compared to earlier studies that focus on the shocks of oil prices, gold prices and real income on housing market prices in the setting of China. Hou et al (2016), Amiri et al (2021) and Zhang and Qin (2022) focused on financial stock markets. Third, methodologically, this article contributes to the way that we used the "newly developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model proposed by McNown et al (2018)" to analyze the association between the variables of interest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil prices and gold prices on housing market in China: novel findings from the bootstrap approach

Ali

Samour

Joof

et al. 2022

IJHMA

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Purpose This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables. Findings The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.

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“…The state of academic literature at first glance leans towards an emphasis on oil price and exchange rate nexus [ 12 ] for Nigeria [ 13 ]; for Nigeria [ 14 ]; for South Africa. The inclusion of oil price, aside from its dominance in export revenues for the selected countries, its inclusion is further cemented due to the complexity of country-specific findings by past empirical studies [ 15 ]. generalised for oil-exporting countries stating that an upward movement in the price of oil translates to a depreciation in the real exchange rate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%