Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Activities in Asean-5 Countries: A Panel VAR Approach

Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman; Dahalan, Jauhari

doi:10.17015/ejbe.2015.016.06

Cited by 27 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Similarly, Donayre and Wilmot [22] and Farzanegan and Markwardt [30] also found an asymmetric effect in their studies. As for the case of ASEAN countries, Aziz and Dahalan [25] used a panel VAR model for the ASEAN-5 countries consisting of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Overall the studies suggest asymmetric effect for the case of ASEAN-5.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With regards to the endogenous growth theory, there are several numbers of variables that are significantly correlated with growth regression models, including but not limited to initial level of income, investment rate, various measures of education and certain policy indicators [37,38]. Furthermore, based on the work of Aziz and Dahalan [25], Donayre and Wilmot [22], and Nusair [10], it is apparent that oil price also plays an important role in the determination of the economic growth of net oil-exporting countries. In line with that, the following multivariate specification is employed, as inspired by the growth regression model, which is broadly similar to Levine and Renelt [39], Campos [40], and Azman-Saini et al [41], with the addition of oil price as an explanatory variable:…”

Section: Empirical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, this study attempts to validate the existence of a nonlinear relationship between oil price and economic growth, using the newly developed NARDL model developed by Shin et al [24]. Second, previous studies on ASEAN countries focus on a bivariate relationship, between oil price and economic growth, which results in the potentially misspecified model (see Aziz and Dahalan [25]). When some relevant explanatory variables are omitted from the regression, the results from the model could be biased.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Analysis of Oil Price Effect on Economic Growth of ASEAN Net Oil Exporters

Kriskkumar

Naseem

2019

Energies

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In this paper, the linear and nonlinear effects of oil price on growth for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—3 net oil-exporting countries, namely Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam, are investigated. The empirical analysis applies the augmented autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound test approach and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) methodology over the period of 1979 to 2017. Evidence suggests that ignoring nonlinearities may lead to misleading results. Specifically, results reveal that the effect of oil price is asymmetric for the case of Brunei, while the effect oil price is deemed insignificant for the case of Malaysia and Vietnam, both linear and nonlinear model. Brunei’s high dependency on oil revenue makes it susceptible to negative oil price shock. This suggests that oil price still plays a significant role as the main driver of economic progress for Brunei.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Empirical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Oil Price Effect on Economic Growth of ASEAN Net Oil Exporters

Kriskkumar

Naseem

2019

Energies

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“…The Cholesky decomposition strategy entails a contemporaneous relationship among the variables. The first variable in the VAR system influences the other variables contemporaneously, while the following variables in the VAR impact the variables listed earlier only in their lag form [Aziz, Dahalan, 2015]. Considering that the variables correspond to the Cholesky decomposition, the order (ren; gdp; ep) is then imposed from the most to the least exogenous.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Future of Renewable Energy Consumption for United Kingdom, Turkey and Nigeria

Kilinc‐Ata¹

2018

Foresight and STI Governance

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T he relationship between economic growth and renewable energy (RE) consumption has received enormous attention in the literature. However, there are diverse views about the causality and nature of this relationship. The paper investigates how RE consumption during power generation is affected by economic growth and electricity prices using data from 1990 to 2012. This is conducted by using three case study countries (United Kingdom, Turkey, and Nigeria). Then, a prediction Кeywords: renewable energy; energy consumption; economic growth; forecasting; vector auto-regression; international comparisons; United Kingdom; Turkey; Nigeria model is developed for the year 2030. The findings in this paper show that RE consumption, for the period under consideration, is significantly determined by income and electricity prices in the long run. These findings support the advantages of government policies encouraging the use of RE by implementing RE markets and RE portfolio standards to not only enhance the security and environmental concerns, but also from a macroeconomic point of view (stable economic growth).

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“…He found that the growth hypothesis is supported for India, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa, while the neutrality hypothesis has been found in China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Turkey, and the growth detriment hypothesis has been diagnosed for Brazil. Aziz and Dahalan (2015) assessed impacts of oil price shocks on real economic activities in ASEAN-5 for the period 1991-2014. Results indicated that positive oil price shock measures negatively influence output growth both in the short term and long term.…”

Section: Empirical Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Central Asia

Nguyen

2019

EJBE

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This article aims to explore the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions of five Central Asian countries between 1998 and 2017. We found that per capita energy consumption has a positive relationship with per capita GDP, while per capita CO2 emissions negatively affect per capita GDP in Central Asia. Further, per capita GDP has a negative impact on per capita energy consumption in the region. Results reflect that the economic growth of Central Asian countries still heavily depends upon energy consumption. However, CO2 emissions in this region should be reduced because it has been defined as a determinant leading to a decrease in economic growth. In the short run, we also found that there is a directional relationship running from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption and per capita CO2 emissions; and from per capita energy consumption to per capita GDP. Results show that there is a co-integration among variables in the long run. Finally, policies are recommended to enhance economic growth and achieve sustainable development in Central Asia.

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Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Activities in Asean-5 Countries: A Panel VAR Approach

Cited by 27 publications

References 25 publications

Analysis of Oil Price Effect on Economic Growth of ASEAN Net Oil Exporters

Analysis of Oil Price Effect on Economic Growth of ASEAN Net Oil Exporters

Assessing the Future of Renewable Energy Consumption for United Kingdom, Turkey and Nigeria

The Relationship between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Central Asia

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